Maya Erskine, Donald Glover in Mr. and Mrs. Smith — Donald Glover and Maya Erskine in 'Mr. & Mrs. Smith' Courtesy of Prime Video

SINCE THE LAST UPDATE

With the start of Emmy nominations voting arriving on Thursday, campaigning has been happening everywhere, at least in and around Los Angeles.

In recent days, one could find top-tier contenders on FYC panels (Jon Stewart and the other hosts of Comedy Central’s The Daily Show flew out from New York for theirs) and roundtables (check out THR’s), at the Ross House in Mt. Olympus (even campaigning-averse Donald Glover of Mr. and Mrs. Smith showed up), at the races (Sebastian Maniscalco promoted Max’s Bookie at the Santa Anita track) and even on pizza boxes (ABC is pushing Abbott Elementary to consumers of Prime Pizza).

Many chose this moment to share positive news about their contender — for instance, Apple announced the renewal of Palm Royale for a second season. Others, curiously, elected this moment to drop bad news about their contender — HBO/Max announced the cancellation of Tokyo Vice, Apple disclosed that Julianna Margulies is leaving The Morning Show, and NBC revealed that Late Night With Seth Meyers is losing its house band due to budget cuts — which surely cannot help their prospects. Go figure.

Meanwhile, all signs continue to point to a strong showing on the morning of the nominations announcement — July 17 — for a handful of shows: FX’s Shogun, The Bear and Fargo, Max’s Hacks and Netflix’s Ripley and Baby Reindeer — as you will see reflected in the update of the forecast that appears below.

NOTE BEFORE READING FURTHER

(1) This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage Scott Feinberg, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences.

(2) Unlike many other lists, the objective of the forecast is not to include every show or person that is eligible for Emmys recognition, only the top tier of contenders.

(3) Nobody can watch every Emmy-eligible show, and Scott is no exception. He arrives at these projections by at least sampling as many contenders as possible, consulting with TV Academy members, reading reviews, analyzing awards campaigns and referencing the results of other award shows, as well as the historical preferences of the TV Academy.

(4) Under program categories, you can now find listed each program’s season that is eligible, its platform, release date (of the first episode of the eligible season) and Rotten Tomatoes scores (the first from critics, the second from audiences). We also note if the TV Academy has recognized prior seasons of the program in that category with a nomination (*) or award (^).

(5) The forecast will be updated regularly to reflect new developments. We encourage you to bookmark and return to this URL to find the latest update. (Older versions will be preserved and linked to at the bottom.)

Best Drama Series

Frontrunners
1. Shōgun (FX, 2/27/24, 99 percent/92 percent)
2. The Crown, season 6 (Netflix, 11/16/23, 55 percent/84 percent)***^*
3. The Morning Show, season 3 (Apple, 9/13/23, 72 percent/11 percent)
4. The Gilded Age, season 2 (HBO/Max, 10/29/23, 93 percent/60 percent)
5. Slow Horses, season 3 (Apple, 11/29/23, 98 percent/95 percent)
6. Fallout, season 1 (Amazon, 4/12/24, 94 percent/88 percent)
7. Loki, season 2 (Disney+, 10/5/23, 82 percent/82 percent)
8. 3 Body Problem, season 1 (Netflix, 3/21/24, 77 percent/80 percent)

Major Threats
9. Mr. and Mrs. Smith, season 1 (Amazon, 2/2/24, 90 percent/66 percent)
10. The Curse, season 1 (Showtime, 11/12/23, 94 percent/42 percent)
11. Tokyo Vice, season 2 (HBO/Max, 2/8/24, 92 percent/92 percent)

Possibilities
12. Ahsoka, season 1 (Disney+, 8/22/23, 86 percent/69 percent)
13. Elsbeth, season 1 (CBS, 2/29/24, 91 percent/86 percent)
14. Hijack, season 1 (Apple, 6/28/23, 88 percent/50 percent)

Best Comedy Series

Frontrunners
1. The Bear, season 2 (FX, 6/22/23, 99 percent/93 percent)^
2. Hacks, season 3 (HBO/Max, 5/2/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)**
3. Abbott Elementary, season 3 (ABC, 2/7/24, 100 percent/68 percent)**
4. Curb Your Enthusiasm, season 12 (HBO/Max, 2/4/24, 92 percent/69 percent)**********
5. Only Murders in the Building, season 3 (Hulu, 8/8/23, 96 percent/87 percent)**
6. Palm Royale, season 1 (Apple, 3/20/24, 52 percent/74 percent)
7. The Gentlemen, season 1 (Netflix, 3/7/24, 72 percent/86 percent)
8. Gen V, season 1 (Amazon, 9/29/23, 97 percent/77 percent)

Major Threats
9. What We Do in the Shadows, season 5 (FX, 7/13/23, 95 percent/89 percent)**
10. Reservation Dogs, season 3 (FX, 8/2/23, 100 percent/91 percent)
11. Loot, season 2 (Apple, 4/3/24, 83 percent/TBD percent)

Possibilities
12. Girls5eva, season 3 (Netflix, 3/14/24, 100 percent/92 percent)
13. The Righteous Gemstones, season 3 (HBO/Max, 6/18/23, 100 percent/88 percent)
14. I’m a Virgo, season 1 (Amazon, 6/23/23, 96 percent/80 percent)

Best Limited or Anthology Series

Frontrunners
1. Ripley (Netflix, 4/4/24, 86 percent/82 percent)
2. Baby Reindeer (Netflix, 4/11/24, 100 percent/84 perecent)
3. Fargo (FX, 11/21/23, 92 percent/90 percent)^**
4. True Detective: Night Country (HBO/Max, 1/14/24, 92 percent/56 percent)*
5. Lessons in Chemistry (Apple, 10/13/23, 86 percent/80 percent)

Major Threats
6. Feud: Capote vs. the Swans (FX, 1/31/24, 77 percent/67 percent)*
7. Fellow Travelers (Showtime, 10/29/23, 91 percent/91 percent)
8. Masters of the Air (Apple, 1/26/24, 85 percent/70 percent)
9. The Sympathizer (HBO/Max, 4/14/24, 89 percent/TBD percent)
10. A Gentleman in Moscow (Showtime, 3/29/24, 93 percent/78 percent)
11. Lawmen: Bass Reeves (Paramount+, 11/5/23, 81 percent/93 percent)

Possibilities
12. We Were the Lucky Ones (Hulu, 3/28/24, 95 percent/85 percent)
13. Expats (Amazon, 1/26, 84 percent/50 percent)
14. Under the Bridge (Hulu, 4/17/24, 84 percent/83 percent)
15. A Murder at the End of the World (FX, 11/14/23, 88 percent/89 percent)
16. Griselda (Netflix, 1/25/24, 87 percent/71 percent)
17. Genius: MLK/X (Nat Geo, 2/5/24, 75 percent/80 percent)
18. Mary & George (Starz, 4/5/24, 97 percent/73 percent)

Best TV Movie

Frontrunners
1. Scoop (Netflix, 4/5/24, 78 percent/62 percent)
2. Mr. Monk’s Last Case (Peacock, 12/8/23, 95 percent/80 percent)
3. Red, White and Royal Blue (Amazon, 8/11/23, 76 percent/93 percent)
4. The Great Lillian Hall (HBO, 5/31/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
5. The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial (Showtime, 10/6/23, 94 percent/77 percent)

Major Threats
6. Quiz Lady (Hulu, 11/3/23, 81 percent/81 percent)
7. Unfrosted (Netflix, 5/3/24, 44 percent/52 percent)
8. Música (Amazon, 4/4/24, 95 percent/90 percent)
9. Totally Killer (Amazon, 10/6/23, 87 percent/77 percent)

Possibilities
10. No One Will Save You (Hulu, 9/22/23, 82 percent/56 percent)
11. Upgraded (Amazon, 2/9/24, 77 percent/68 percent)
12. Self Reliance (Hulu, 1/12/24, 72 percent/62 percent)
13. Ricky Stanicky (Amazon/MGM, 3/7/24, 47 percent/74 percent)

Best Variety Talk Series

*The Daily Show* Courtesy of Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show”

Frontrunners
1. The Daily Show (Comedy Central)
2. The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS) — podcast (Stephen Colbert)
3. Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) — podcast (Jimmy Kimmel)

Major Threats
4. John Mulaney Presents: Everybody’s in LA (Netflix) — podcast (John Mulaney)
5. Late Night With Seth Meyers (NBC) — podcast (Seth Meyers)
6. The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC) — podcast (Jimmy Fallon)

Possibilities
7. Real Time With Bill Maher (HBO/Max) — podcast (Bill Maher)
8. Hot Ones (YouTube)
9. Watch What Happens Live (Bravo) — podcast (Andy Cohen)

Best Scripted Variety Series

*Last Week Tonight with John Oliver* Courtesy of HBO

Frontrunners
1. Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO/Max)
2. Saturday Night Live (NBC) — podcast (Lorne Michaels)

Major Threats
3. After Midnight (CBS)

Possibilities
4. Painting with John (HBO/Max)

Best Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

Dick Van Dyke in *Dick Van Dyke 98 Years of Magic* Monty Brinton/CBS

Frontrunners
1. Dick Van Dyke 98 Years of Magic (CBS, 12/21/23, TBD percent/TBD percent)
2. Dave Chappelle: The Dreamer (Netflix, 12/31/23, 20 percent/83 percent)
3. Alex Edelman: Just for Us (HBO/Max, 4/6/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
4. Hannah Waddingham: Home for Christmas (Apple, 11/22/23, 100 percent/91 percent)
5. The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon: 10th Anniversary Special (NBC) — podcast (Jimmy Fallon)

Major Threats
6. Billy Joel: The 100th Live at Madison Square Garden (CBS, 4/14/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
7. Trevor Noah: Where Was I (Netflix, 12/19/23, TBD percent/46 percent) — podcast (Trevor Noah)
8. A Grammy Salute to 50 Years of Hip Hop (CBS, 12/10/23, TBD percent/TBD percent)
9. Library of Congress Gershwin Prize for Popular Song: Elton John & Bernie Taupin (PBS, 4/8/24, TBD percent/TBD percent) — podcast (Elton John)
10. Jennifer Lopez: This Is Me… Now: A Love Story (Amazon, 2/16/24, 75 percent/76 percent) — podcast (Jennifer Lopez)
11. The 46th Kennedy Center Honors (CBS, 12/27/23, TBD percent/TBD percent)
12. Ricky Gervais: Armageddon (Netflix, 12/25/23, 50 percent/63 percent) — podcast (Ricky Gervais)
13. Kevin Hart: Reality Check (Peacock, 7/6/23, TBD percent/78 percent) — podcast (Kevin Hart)
14. Ramy Youssef: More Feelings (HBO/Max, 3/23/24, 100 percent/100 percent) — podcast (Ramy Youssef)
15. Katt Williams: Woke Foke (Netflix, 5/4/24, TBD percent/0 percent)
16. Taylor Mac’s 24–Decade History of Popular Music (HBO/Max, 6/27/23, 100 percent/62 percent)

Possibilities
17. Mike Birbiglia: The Old Man and the Pool (Netflix, 11/21/23, 100 percent/89 percent)
18. Barry Manilow’s A Very Barry Christmas (NBC, 12/8/23, TBD percent/67 percent)
19. Nikki Glaser: Someday You’ll Die (HBO/Max, TBD, TBD percent/TBD percent)
20. Amy Schumer: Emergency Contact (Netflix, 6/13/23, 100 percent/18 percent)
21. Jacqueline Novak: Get on Your Knees (Netflix, 1/23/24, TBD percent/81 percent)
22. Taylor Tomlinson: Have It All (Netflix, 2/13/24, TBD percent/78 percent)
23. 2023 Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony (Disney+, 11/3/23, TBD percent/TBD percent)
24. iHeartRadio Jingle Ball 2023 (ABC, 12/21/23, TBD percent/TBD percent)
25. Jim Gaffigan: Dark Pale (Amazon, 7/25/23, TBD percent/37 percent)

Best Variety Special (Live)

*The Oscars* Frank Micelotta/Disney via Getty Images

Frontrunners
1. The Oscars (ABC, 3/10/24, 83 percent/86 percent) — podcast (Jimmy Kimmel)
2. The Apple Music Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show Starring Usher (CBS, 2/11/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
3. The 66th Annual Grammy Awards (CBS, 2/4/24, 60 percent/33 percent) — podcast (Trevor Noah & Ben Winston)
4. The 76th Tony Awards (CBS, 6/11/23, TBD percent/TBD percent)
5. G.R.O.A.T. The Greatest Roast of All Time: Tom Brady (Netflix, 5/5/24, TBD percent/73 percent)

Major Threats
6. Apple Music Live: Jennifer Lopez (Apple, 2/21/24, TBD percent/TBD percent) — podcast (Jennifer Lopez)
7. Dick Clark’s New Year’s Rockin’ Eve with Ryan Seacrest (ABC, 12/31/23, TBD percent/TBD percent) — podcast (Ryan Seacrest)

Possibilities
8. The 57th Annual Country Music Association Awards (11/8/23, ABC, TBD percent/TBD percent)
9. SAG Awards (Netflix, 2/24/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
10. The 81st Golden Globe Awards (CBS, 1/7/24, 8 percent/10 percent)
11. BET Awards 2023 (BET, 6/25/23, TBD percent/TBD percent)

Best Documentary or Nonfiction Series

*Quiet on Set: The Dark Side of Kids TV* Investigation Discovery

Frontrunners
1. Quiet on Set: The Dark Side of Kids TV (ID, 3/17/24, 100 percent/81 percent)
2. Beckham (Netflix, 10/4/23, 88 percent/95 percent)
3. The Jinx — Part 2 (HBO/Max, 4/21/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
4. The Super Models (Apple, 9/20/23, 83 percent/74 percent) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
5. Our Planet II (Netflix, 6/14/23, 100 percent/86 percent)^

Major Threats
6. The Dynasty: New England Patriots (Apple, 2/16/24, 100 percent/50 percent)
7. Queens (Nat Geo, 3/4/24, 80 percent/TBD percent)
8. Secrets of the Octopus (Nat Geo, 4/21/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
9. Planet Earth III (BBC America, 11/4/23, 100 percent/95 percent)
10. American Masters (PBS, 1/24/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
11. Thank You, Goodnight: The Bon Jovi Story (Hulu, 4/26/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
12. Murder in Boston: Roots, Rampage & Reckoning (HBO/Max, 12/4/23, 100 percent/91 percent)

Possibilities
13. Telemarketers (HBO/Max, 8/13/23, 96 percent/94 percent)
14. Black Twitter: A People’s History (Hulu, 5/9/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
15. Escaping Twin Flames (Netflix, 11/8/23, 100 percent/76 percent)
16. Last Call: When a Serial Killer Stalked Queer New York (HBO/Max, 7/9/23, 100 percent/85 percent)
17. Predator v Prey (BBC America, 4/20/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
18. Arnold (Netflix, 6/7/23, 70 percent/93 percent)
19. American Nightmare (Netflix, 1/17/24, 96 percent/87 percent)
20. Kings from Queens: The RUN DMC Story (Peacock, 2/1/24, 100 percent/TBD percent)

Best Documentary or Nonfiction Special

*The Greatest Night in Pop* Courtesy of Netflix

Frontrunners
1. The Greatest Night in Pop (Netflix, 1/29/24, 98 percent/89 percent)
2. STEVE! (martin) a documentary in 2 pieces (Apple, 3/29/24, 91 percent/92 percent)
3. Jim Henson Idea Man (Disney+, 5/31/24, 100 percent/TBD percent)
4. Albert Brooks: Defending My Life (HBO/Max, 11/11/23, 97 percent/91 percent) — podcast (Rob Reiner)
5. The Beach Boys (Disney+, 5/24/24, 87 percent/80 percent) — podcast (Frank Marshall)

Major Threats
6. Girls State (Apple, 4/5/24, 95 percent/73 percent)
7. Rock Hudson: All That Heaven Allowed (HBO/Max, 6/28/23, 91 percent/74 percent)
8. In Restless Dreams: The Music of Paul Simon (MGM+, 3/17/24, 94 percent/TBD percent) — podcast (Alex Gibney)
9. Goliath (Showtime, 7/16/23, 100 percent/100 percent)
10. Wham! (Netflix, 7/5/23, 89 percent/88 percent)
11. Sly (Netflix, 11/3/23, 81 percent/87 percent)

Possibilities
12. Maxine’s Baby (Amazon, 11/17/23, 82 percent/86 percent)
13. Milli Vanilli (Paramount+, 10/24/23, 100 percent/92 percent)
14. For Love & Life: No Ordinary Campaign (Amazon, 5/28/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
15. The Bloody Hundredth (Apple, 3/15/24, TDB percent/93 percent)
16. Beyond the Aggressives: 25 Years Later (Showtime, 3/30/24, 100 percent/82 percent)
17. Kevin Hart & Chris Rock: Headliners Only (Netflix, 12/12/23, TBD percent/73 percent) — podcast (Kevin Hart)

Exceptional Merit

*Stamped From the Beginning* Courtesy of TIFF

Frontrunners
1. Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix, 11/20/23, 100 percent/65 percent) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
2. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (HBO/Max, 1/8/24, 97 percent/86 percent)
3. The Blue Angels (Amazon, TBD, TBD percent/TBD percent)

Major Threats
4. The Pigeon Tunnel (Apple, 10/20/23, 96 percent/68 percent)

Possibilities
5. Immediate Family (Magnolia, 12/15/23, 100 percent/92 percent)
6. Blue Carbon: Nature’s Hidden Power (CNN, 4/21/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)

Best Actor in a Drama Series

Frontrunners
1. Hiroyuki Sanada (Shōgun, FX)
2. Cosmo Jarvis (Shōgun, FX)
3. Dominic West (The Crown, Netflix)
4. Gary Oldman (Slow Horses, Apple) — podcast
5. Walton Goggins (Fallout, Amazon)
6. Donald Glover (Mr. and Mrs. Smith, Amazon)

Major Threats
7. Tom Hiddleston (Loki, Disney+) — podcast
8. Idris Elba (Hijack, Apple) — podcast
9. Nathan Fielder (The Curse, Showtime)
10. Morgan Spector (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)

Possibilities
11. Ansel Elgort (Tokyo Vice, HBO/Max)
12. Ken Watanabe (Tokyo Vice, HBO/Max)
13. Timothy Olyphant (Justified: City Primeval, FX)
14. Paul Giamatti (Billions, Showtime) — podcast

Best Actress in a Drama Series

Frontrunners
1. Anna Sawai (Shōgun, FX) — podcast
2. Emma Stone (The Curse, Showtime) — podcast
3. Imelda Staunton (The Crown, Netflix)
4. Maya Erskine (Mr. and Mrs. Smith, Amazon)
5. Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show, Apple)*
6. Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show, Apple)* — podcast

Major Threats
7. Ella Purnell (Fallout, Amazon)
8. Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
9. Carrie Preston (Elsbeth, CBS)

Possibilities
10. Jess Hong (3 Body Problem, Netflix)
11. Rosario Dawson (Ahsoka, Disney+)
12. Rachel Keller (Tokyo Vice, HBO/Max)

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Billy Crudup in *The Morning Show* Everett

Frontrunners
1. Billy Crudup (The Morning Show, Apple)^*
2. Tadanobu Asano (Shōgun, FX)
3. Jonathan Pryce (The Crown, Netflix) — podcast
4. Khalid Abdalla (The Crown, Netflix)
5. Mark Duplass (The Morning Show, Apple)*
6. Nathan Lane (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
7. Benny Safdie (The Curse, Showtime)
8. Takehiro Hira (Shōgun, FX)

Major Threats
9. Ke Huy Quan (Loki, Disney+) — podcast
10. Jack Lowden (Slow Horses, Apple)
11. Aaron Moten (Fallout, Amazon)
12. Benedict Wong (3 Body Problem, Netflix)
13. Liam Cunningham (3 Body Problem, Netflix)

Possibilities
14. Owen Wilson (Loki, Disney+)
15. John Douglas Thompson (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
16. Shô Kasamatsu (Tokyo Vice, HBO/Max)
17. Wendell Pierce (Elsbeth, CBS)
18. Hayden Christensen (Ahsoka, Disney+)

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Elizabeth Debicki in *The Crown* Netflix

Frontrunners
1. Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown, Netflix)*
2. Lesley Manville (The Crown, Netflix)
3. Moeka Hoshi (Shōgun, FX)
4. Fumi Nikaido (Shōgun, FX)
5. Kristin Scott Thomas (Slow Horses, Apple)
6. Christine Baranski (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
7. Olivia Williams (The Crown, Netflix)
8. Greta Lee (The Morning Show, Apple)

Major Threats
9. Nicole Beharie (The Morning Show, Apple)
10. Holland Taylor (The Morning Show, Apple)
11. Leslie Uggams (Fallout, Amazon)
12. Julianna Margulies (The Morning Show, Apple)
13. Karen Pittman (The Morning Show, Apple)

Possibilities
14. Cynthia Nixon (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
15. Denée Benton (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
16. Audra McDonald (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
17. Sophia Di Martino (Loki)
18. Rinko Kikuchi (Tokyo Vice, HBO/Max)

Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series

Michael Emerson in *Fallout* Courtesy of Amazon

Frontrunners
1. Michael Emerson (Fallout, Amazon)
2. Kyle MacLachlan (Fallout, Amazon)
3. Néstor Carbonell (Shōgun, FX)
4. Rob Morgan (Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty, HBO/Max)
5. John Turturro (Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Amazon) — podcast
6. Will Arnett (The Morning Show, Apple) — podcast

Major Threats
7. Michael Braugher (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
8. Darren Goldstein (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
9. Wagner Moura (Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Amazon)
10. John Goodman (Monarch: Legacy of Monsters, Apple)

Possibilities
11. Tracy Letts (Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty, HBO/Max)
12. Danny Burstein (Tokyo Vice, HBO/Max)
13. John Bradley (3 Body Problem, Netflix)
14. Jonathan Pryce (Slow Horses, Apple)

Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series

Claire Foy (right) in *The Crown* Courtesy of Netflix

Frontrunners
1. Claire Foy (The Crown, Netflix) — podcast
2. Dale Dickey (Fallout, Amazon)
3. Yuko Miyamoto (Shōgun, FX)
4. Natalie Morales (The Morning Show, Apple)
5. Marcia Gay Harden (The Morning Show, Apple)
6. Sarah Paulson (Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Amazon) — podcast

Major Threats
7. Glenn Close (The New Look, Apple)
8. Jane Krakowski (Elsbeth, CBS)
9. Laura Benanti (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
10. Melanie Nicholls-King (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)

Possibilities
11. LisaGay Hamilton (Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty, HBO/Max)
12. Zine Tseng (3 Body Problem, Netflix)
13. Parker Posey (Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Amazon)
14. Jessica Hecht (Tokyo Vice, HBO/Max)

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

Jeremy Allen White in *The Bear* Everett Collection

Frontrunners
1. Jeremy Allen White (The Bear, FX)^
2. Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO/Max)******
3. Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)** — podcast
4. Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)*
5. Theo James (The Gentlemen, Netflix)

Major Threats
6. Danny McBride (The Righteous Gemstones, HBO/Max)
7. Jharrel Jerome (I’m a Virgo, Amazon)
8. Kayvan Novak (What We Do in the Shadows, FX)
9. Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows, FX)

Possibilities
10. Kelsey Grammer (Frasier, Paramount+)
11. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (Reservation Dogs, FX)
12. Chris Messina (Based on a True Story, Peacock)

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

Jean Smart in *Hacks* Jake Giles Netter/Max

Frontrunners
1. Jean Smart (Hacks, HBO/Max)^^
2. Ayo Edebiri (The Bear, FX)^
3. Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary, ABC)*^ — podcast
4. Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu) — podcast
5. Kristen Wiig (Palm Royale, Apple) — podcast

Major Threats
6. Maya Rudolph (Loot, Apple)
7. Devery Jacobs (Reservation Dogs, FX)
8. Natasha Demetriou (What We Do in the Shadows, FX)
9. Renee Elise Goldsberry (Girls5eva, Netflix)

Possibilities
10. Sara Bareilles (Girls5eva, Netflix)
11. Sarah Lancashire (Julia, HBO/Max)
12. Kaley Cuoco (Based on a True Story, Peacock) — podcast
13. Edi Patterson (The Righteous Gemstones, HBO/Max)

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Ebon Moss-Bachrach in *The Bear* Chuck Hodes/FX

Frontrunners
1. Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear, FX)^
2. Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary, ABC)**
3. Paul W. Downs (Hacks, HBO/Max)
4. Oliver Platt (The Bear, FX)*
5. Lionel Boyce (The Bear, FX)
6. Matty Matheson (The Bear, FX)
7. Richard Lewis (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO/Max)

Major Threats
8. Chris Perfetti (Abbott Elementary, ABC)
9. William Stanford Davis (Abbott Elementary, ABC)
10. Carl Clemons-Hopkins (Hacks, HBO/Max)*
11. Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live, NBC)**
12. Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live, NBC)*** — podcast
13. Paul Rudd (Only Murders in the Buildings, Hulu)
14. Giancarlo Esposito (The Gentlemen, Netflix)

Possibilities
15. Daniel Ings (The Gentlemen, Netflix)
16. Vinnie Jones (The Gentlemen, Netflix)
17. J.B. Smoove (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO/Max)
18. Joel Kim Booster (Loot, Apple)
19. Harvey Guillen (What We Do in the Shadows, FX)
20. Mark Proksch (What We Do in the Shadows, FX)

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Hannah Einbinder in *Hacks* Jake Giles Netter/Max

Frontrunners
1. Hannah Einbinder (Hacks, HBO/Max)** — podcast
2. Meryl Streep (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu) — podcast
3. Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary, ABC)^* — podcast
4. Janelle James (Abbott Elementary, ABC)**
5. Abby Elliott (The Bear, FX)
6. Liza Colon-Zayas (The Bear, FX)
7. Meg Stalter (Hacks, HBO/Max)

Major Threats
8. Molly Gordon (The Bear, FX)
9. Allison Janney (Palm Royale, Apple) — podcast
10. Carol Burnett (Palm Royale, Apple) — podcast
11. Laura Dern (Palm Royale, Apple)
12. Lisa Ann Walter (Abbott Elementary, ABC)
13. Kaya Scodelario (The Gentlemen, Netflix)

Possiblities
14. Judith Light (Julia, HBO/Max)
15. Heidi Gardner (Saturday Night Live, NBC)
16. Ego Nwodim (Saturday Night Live, NBC)
17. Michaela Jaé Rodriguez (Loot, Apple)
18. Paulina Alexis (Reservation Dogs, FX)
19. Carmen Ejogo (I’m a Virgo, Amazon)

Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Jerry Seinfeld in *Curb Your Enthusiasm* John Johnson/HBO

Frontrunners
1. Jerry Seinfeld (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO/Max) — podcast
2. John Mulaney (The Bear, FX) — podcast
3. Vince Vaughn (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO/Max) — podcast
4. Jon Bernthal (The Bear, FX)*
5. Bradley Cooper (Abbott Elementary, ABC)
6. Ryan Gosling (Saturday Night Live, NBC)

Major Threats
7. Christopher McDonald (Hacks, HBO/Max)
8. Bob Odenkirk (The Bear, FX) — podcast
9. Christopher Lloyd (Hacks, HBO/Max)
10. Ethan Hawke (Reservation Dogs, FX) — podcast
11. Mel Brooks (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)
12. James Caverly (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)
13. Matthew Broderick (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)
14. Robert Townsend (The Bear, FX)

Possibilities
15. Timothée Chalamet (Saturday Night Live, NBC) — podcast
16. Keegan-Michael Key (Abbott Elementary, ABC)
17. Tony Goldwyn (Hacks, HBO/Max) — podcast
18. Sean Hayes (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO/Max)
19. Max Beesley (The Gentlemen, Netflix)
20. Guz Khan (The Gentlemen, Netflix)
21. Bruce Dern (Palm Royale, Apple)

Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Jamie Lee Curtis in *The Bear* Chuck Hodes/FX

Frontrunners
1. Jamie Lee Curtis (The Bear, FX)
2. Kristen Wiig (Saturday Night Live, NBC) — podcast
3. Olivia Colman (The Bear, FX) — podcast
4. Kaitlin Olson (Hacks, HBO/Max)
5. Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live, NBC)
6. Allison Janney (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO) — podcast

Major Threats
7. Sydney Sweeney (Saturday Night Live, NBC) — podcast
8. Emma Stone (Saturday Night Live, NBC) — podcast
9. Gillian Jacobs (The Bear, FX)
10. Sarah Paulson (The Bear, FX) — podcast
11. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)
12. Jane Lynch (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)

Possibilities
13. Ayo Edebiri (Saturday Night Live, NBC)
14. Dakota Johnson (Saturday Night Live, NBC) — podcast
15. Andrea Martin (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu) — podcast
16. Tina Fey (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu) — podcast
17. Sienna Miller (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO/Max)

Best Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or a TV Movie

Frontrunners
1. Jon Hamm (Fargo, FX)
2. Andrew Scott (Ripley, Netflix)
3. Richard Gadd (Baby Reindeer, Netflix)
4. Tom Hollander (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX) — podcast
5. Matt Bomer (Fellow Travelers, Showtime) — podcast
6. David Oyelowo (Lawmen: Bass Reeves, Paramount+) — podcast

Major Threats
7. Michael Douglas (Franklin, Apple) — podcast
8. Tony Shalhoub (Mr. Monk’s Last Case, Peacock) — podcast
9. Ewan McGregor (A Gentleman in Moscow, Paramount+)
10. Austin Butler (Masters of the Air, Apple) — podcast
11. Callum Turner (Masters of the Air, Apple)
12. Hoa Xuande (The Sympathizer, HBO/Max)

Possibilities
13. Kiefer Sutherland (The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial, Showtime)
14. Jeff Daniels (A Man in Full, Netflix) — podcast
15. Nicholas Galitzine (Mary & George, Starz)
16. Matthias Schoenaerts (The Regime, HBO/Max)
17. Aaron Pierre (Genius: MLX/X, Nat Geo)
18. Kelvin Harrison Jr. (Genius: MLK/X, Nat Geo)

Best Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or a TV Movie

Brie Larson in *Lessons in Chemistry* Apple TV+

Frontrunners
1. Brie Larson (Lessons in Chemistry, Apple) — podcast
2. Juno Temple (Fargo, FX)
3. Jodie Foster (True Detective: Night Country, HBO/Max) — podcast
4. Naomi Watts (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX)
5. Sofía Vergara (Griselda, Netflix) — podcast
6. Kate Winslet (The Regime, HBO/Max) — podcast 1 and 2

Major Threats
7. Nicole Kidman (Expats, Amazon) — podcast
8. Jessica Lange (The Great Lillian Hall, HBO)
9. Emma Corrin (A Murder at the End of the World, FX) — podcast
10. Julianne Moore (Mary & George, Starz) — podcast
11. Joey King (We Were the Lucky Ones, Hulu)

Possibilities
12. Mary Elizabeth Winstead (A Gentleman in Moscow, Showtime)
13. Billie Piper (Scoop, Netflix)
14. Awkwafina (Quiz Lady, Hulu) — podcast
15. Sandra Oh (Quiz Lady, Hulu) — podcast
16. Ji-young Yoo (Expats, Amazon)

Best Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or a TV Movie

Robert Downey Jr. in *The Sympathizer* HBO/Hopper Stone

Frontrunners
1. Robert Downey Jr. (The Sympathizer, HBO/Max)
2. Lewis Pullman (Lessons in Chemistry, Apple)
3. Jonathan Bailey (Fellow Travelers, Showtime)
4. Johnny Flynn (Ripley, Netflix)
5. Ron Cephas Jones (Genius: MLK/X, Nat Geo)
6. Treat Williams (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX)
7. John Hawkes (True Detective: Night Country, HBO/Max)

Major Threats
8. Joe Keery (Fargo, FX)
9. John Malkovich (Ripley, Netflix)
10. Barry Keoghan (Masters of the Air, Apple)
11. Anthony Boyle (Masters of the Air, Apple)
12. Hugh Grant (The Regime, HBO/Max) — podcast
13. Donald Sutherland (Lawmen: Bass Reeves, Paramount+)

Possibilities
14. Joe Mantello (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX) — podcast
15. Russell Tovey (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX)
16. Sam Spruell (Fargo, FX)
17. Lamorne Morris (Fargo, FX)
18. Rufus Sewell (Scoop, Netflix)
19. Harris Dickinson (A Murder at the End of the World, FX)

Best Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or a TV Movie

Jessica Gunning in *Baby Reindeer* Joe Maher/Getty Images

Frontrunners
1. Jessica Gunning (Baby Reindeer, Netflix)
2. Jennifer Jason Leigh (Fargo, FX) — podcast
3. Kali Reis (True Detective: Night Country, HBO/Max)
4. Nava Mau (Baby Reindeer, Netflix)
5. Lily Gladstone (Under the Bridge, Hulu) — podcast
6. Aja Naomi King (Lessons in Chemistry, Apple)
7. Calista Flockhart (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX)

Major Threats
8. Diane Lane (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX)
9. Chloe Sevigny (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX)
10. Dakota Fanning (Ripley, Netflix)
11. Molly Ringwald (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX)
12. Demi Moore (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX)
13. Sandra Oh (The Sympathizer, HBO/Max) — podcast

Possibilities
14. Allison Williams (Fellow Travelers, Showtime) — podcast
15. Riley Keough (Under the Bridge, Hulu)
16. Richa Moorjani (Fargo, FX)
17. Andrea Riseborough (The Regime, HBO/Max)
18. Martha Plimpton (The Regime, HBO/Max)
19. Gillian Anderson (Scoop, Netflix) — podcast

Best Writing for a Drama Series

Frontrunners
1. Shōgun (FX)
2. The Crown (Netflix)***^*
3. Slow Horses (Apple)
4. Loki (Disney+)
5. The Gilded Age (HBO/Max)
6. The Curse (Showtime)
7. Fallout (Amazon)

Major Threats
8. Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Amazon)
9. 3 Body Problem (Netflix)
10. Tokyo Vice (HBO/Max)
11. The Morning Show (Apple)

Possibilities
12. Ahsoka (Disney+)
13. Elsbeth (CBS)
14. Hijack (Apple)
15. Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty (HBO/Max)

Best Writing for a Comedy Series

Frontrunners
1. The Bear (FX)^
2. Abbott Elementary (ABC)^
3. Hacks (Max)^*
4. Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)**
5. The Gentlemen (Netflix)
6. What We Do in the Shadows (FX)**

Major Threats
7. Palm Royale (Apple)
8. Gen V (Amazon)
9. I’m a Virgo (Amazon)
10. Loot (Apple)

Possibilities
11. Reservation Dogs (FX)
12. Girls5eva (Netflix)*
13. Ted (Peacock)
14. Never Have I Ever (Netflix)

Best Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series

Frontrunners
1. Fargo (FX)
2. Ripley (Netflix)
3. Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
4. True Detective: Night Country (HBO/Max)
5. Lessons in Chemistry (Apple)
6. Feud: Capote vs. the Swans (FX)

Major Threats
7. Fellow Travelers (Showtime)
8. A Murder at the End of the World (FX)
9. Griselda (Netflix)
10. Masters of the Air (Apple)

Possibilities
11. A Gentleman in Moscow (Showtime)
12. Lawmen: Bass Reeves (Paramount+)
13. Under the Bridge (Hulu)
14. We Were the Lucky Ones (Hulu)

Best Writing for a Variety Series

Frontrunners
1. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)*^^^^^^^^
2. Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC)***** — podcast (Seth Meyers)
3. The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)******* — podcast (Stephen Colbert)
4. Saturday Night Live (NBC)^^^^************************* — podcast (Lorne Michaels)
5. The Daily Show (Comedy Central)

Major Threats
6. John Mulaney Presents: Everybody’s in LA (Netflix) — podcast (John Mulaney)
7. Real Time With Bill Maher (HBO/Max)****** — podcast (Bill Maher)

Possibilities
8. Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)* — podcast (Jimmy Kimmel)
9. The Amber Ruffin Show (Peacock)*

Best Writing for a Variety Special

Frontrunners
1. Alex Edelman: Just for Us (HBO/Max)
2. Dave Chappelle: The Dreamer (Netflix)
3. Trevor Noah: Where Was I (Netflix) — podcast (Trevor Noah)
4. Ricky Gervais: Armageddon (Netflix) — podcast (Ricky Gervais)
5. Mike Birbiglia: The Old Man and the Pool (Netflix)

Major Threats
6. G.R.O.A.T. The Greatest Roast Of All Time: Tom Brady (Netflix)
7. John Early: Now More Than Ever (HBO/Max)
8. Ramy Youssef: More Feelings (HBO/Max) — podcast (Ramy Youssef)
9. Jenny Slate: Seasoned Professional (Amazon)
10. Hannah Waddingham: Home for Christmas (Apple)

Possibilities
11. Amy Schumer: Emergency Contact (Netflix)
12. Jim Gaffigan: Dark Pale (Amazon)
13. Tig Notaro: Hello Again (Amazon)
14. Hannah Gadsby: Gender Agenda (Netflix) — podcast (Hannah Gadsby)
15. Nikki Glaser: Someday You’ll Die (HBO/Max)
16. Taylor Tomlinson: Have It All (Netflix)

Best Writing for a Nonfiction Program

*Quiet on Set: The Dark Side of Kids TV* Investigation Discovery/YouTube

Frontrunners
1. Quiet on Set: The Dark Side of Kids TV (ID)
2. The Jinx — Part 2 (HBO/Max)
3. Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix)
4. Our Planet II (Netflix)
5. Queens (Nat Geo)

Major Threats
6. American Masters (PBS)
7. Life on Our Planet (Netflix)
8. Planet Earth III (BBC America)
9. Deadlocked: How America Shaped the Supreme Court (Showtime)

Possibilities
10. Maxine’s Baby (Amazon)
11. For Love and Life: No Ordinary Campaign (Amazon)
12. Last Call: When a Serial Killer Stalked Queer New York (HBO/Max)
13. Telemarketers (HBO/Max)

Best Structured Reality Program

*Queer Eye* Ilana Panich-Linsman/Netflix

Frontrunners
1. Queer Eye (Netflix)^^^^^^
2. Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives (Food Network)*******
3. Love Is Blind (Netflix)***
4. Shark Tank (ABC)^^^^********
5. Antiques Roadshow (PBS)*********************

Major Threats
6. Running Wild with Bear Grylls (Nat Geo)*
7. Twin Love (Amazon)
8. Couples Therapy (Showtime)
9. The Ultimatum: Marry or Move (Netflix)

Possibilities
10. The Magic Prank Show with Justin Willman (Netflix)
11. We’re Here (HBO/Max)*
12. Pawn Stars (History)
13. Couple to Throuple (Peacock)

Best Unstructured Reality Program

*Welcome to Wrexham* Courtesy Everett Collection

Frontrunners
1. Welcome to Wrexham (FX)^ — podcast (Ryan Reynolds)
2. RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked (MTV)^******
3. Love on the Spectrum (Netflix)^
4. Selling Sunset (Netflix)***
5. The Jerrod Carmichael Reality Show (HBO/Max) — podcast (Jerrod Carmichael)

Major Threats
6. Vanderpump Rules (Bravo)*
7. Real Housewives of Salt Lake City (Bravo)
8. Below Deck Mediterranean (Bravo)*
9. Deadliest Catch (Discovery)^^^**********
10. Project Greenlight: A New Generation (HBO/Max)
11. Life Below Zero (Nat Geo)*

Possibilities
12. The Family Stallone (Paramount+)
13. Love Undercover (Peacock)
14. The Real Housewives Ultimate Girls Trip: RHONY Legacy (Peacock)
15. Friends in Low Places (Amazon)
16. Jersey Shore (MTV)

Best Reality Competition Program

*RuPaul’s Drag Race* World of Wonder/Paramount+

Frontrunners
1. RuPaul’s Drag Race (MTV) — podcast (RuPaul)^^^^^**
2. The Amazing Race (CBS)^^^^^^^^^^**********
3. The Voice (NBC)^^^^********
4. Survivor (CBS)*******
5. The Big Nailed It Baking Challenge (Netflix)****

Major Threats
6. Top Chef (Bravo)^****************
7. American Idol (ABC)*********
8. The Traitors (Peacock)
9. American Ninja Warrior (NBC)****
10. Project Runway (Bravo)**************
11. The Golden Bachelor (ABC)
12. Squid Game: The Challenge (Netflix)

Possibilities
13. So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)*****
14. Dancing with the Stars (ABC)***********
15. The Masked Singer (Fox)*
16. The Challenge: Battle for a New Champion (MTV)
17. Is It Cake? (Netflix)
18. America’s Got Talent (NBC)
19. Deal or No Deal Island (NBC)
20. Tournament of Champions (Food Network)

Best Game Show

Frontrunners
1. Jeopardy! (ABC/Syndicated)^
2. Family Feud (ABC/Syndicated)*
3. Wheel of Fortune (Syndicated)*
4. The Price Is Right (CBS)*
5. Password (NBC) — podcast (Jimmy Fallon)

Major Threats
6. Game Changer (Dropout)
7. The Wall (NBC)
8. Weakest Link (NBC)

Possibilities
9. The Floor (Fox)
10. We Are Family (Fox)

Best Animated Program

*X-Men ’97* Courtesy of Marvel Animation

Frontrunners
1. X-Men ’97 (Disney+)
2. The Simpsons (Fox)^^^^^^^^^^^^********************
3. Bob’s Burgers (Fox)^^**********
4. Archer (FXX)^***
5. Blue Eye Samurai (Netflix)

Major Threats
6. Big Mouth (Netflix)***
7. Scott Pilgrim Takes Off (Netflix)
8. Rick and Morty (Adult Swim)^^**
9. What If…? (Disney+)*
10. Hazbin Hotel (Amazon)
11. The Second Best Hospital in the Galaxy (Amazon)
12. Star Trek: Lower Decks (Paramount+)
13. A Trixie & Katya Christmas (MTV)

Possibilities
14. South Park: Joining the Panderverse (Paramount+)
15. Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butthead (Paramount+)
16. In the Know (Peacock)
17. Invincible (Amazon)
18. Iwájú (Disney+)
19. Dora (Paramount+)
20. Grimsburg (Fox)

Archived Forecasts
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