After a 22% decline over six weeks, industry experts and analysts say that the uranium market has likely set a new floor thanks to a strong demand outlook.

“We have reached a bottom,” said Jonathan Hinze, president of UxC, a nuclear industry research firm. “The fundamentals are still strong, with increased demand and supply that hasn’t fully responded.”

Uranium futures are trading at $88.50 a pound in New York — down from the 16-year high reached in February, but still well above last year’s average price of $66.60 a pound.

There are indicators uranium’s new floor is at around current levels, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Mike Kozak said in an interview, predicting that fundamental buyers will come back into the market and drive up prices again.

Bullish investors are betting on the long-term prospects of the radioactive metal due to a growing supply gap and increased demand as governments worldwide turn to nuclear power to counter climate change. Such demand comes as Canada’s Cameco Corp. and Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom, which together account for half of global supply, warned of supply setbacks in the coming years.

Kazatomprom, the No. 1 producer, said during its March 15 earnings call that it is projecting a 21 million pound supply deficit in 2030 — a shortfall that would multiply to 147 million pounds by 2040.

Geopolitics may also affect the supply outlook. The US introduced a bill in December that would ban imports of enriched Russian uranium — the kind used to fuel nuclear reactors and weapons. The bill needs to be passed by the US Senate and signed by President Joe Biden to be enacted.

Still, with other uranium miners looking to dust off mothballed operations in response to higher prices, there are risks a rally could fizzle out quickly, much in the same way that a boom in battery metals markets turned to bust over the past couple years.

Treva Klingbiel, president of uranium price provider TradeTech, said she doesn’t see demand for nuclear fuel easing any time soon.

“We have a number of geopolitical factors that have a really significant influence on buyer behavior, even though fundamentally nothing has changed” she said. “Buyers can use the spot to tell them the sentiment of the day, but must look at the long-term market to see that it is marching steadily up, it hasn’t taken a hiccup at all.”

(By Maria Clara Cobo)

While China’s total coal imports over January and February surged 23% year-on-year to 74.5 million tons, Russia’s sales fell 22% to 11.5 million tons, according to the latest customs data. Import levies were restored at the start of the year, although other major suppliers like Indonesia and Australia aren’t affected due to free-trade agreements with Beijing.

The tariffs were removed in May 2022 to guard against supply risks after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine roiled global energy markets. That helped pave the way for record imports last year, which included an increased portion of Russian coal shunned by other buyers. Now, policy has shifted to protecting China’s mining companies from the consequences of a glut after domestic output also rose to an all-time high.

Russia is still China’s No. 2 supplier after Indonesia, but the threat of trade actions could start to affect its eastward flows.

The US put sanctions on Russian coal exporters including Suek JSC, the nation’s biggest producer of the fuel, and Mechel PJSC in February. That’s curbing interest from buyers in China, worried about being hit by punishments that could involved restricting their access to shipping or banking services.

“Russian imports may stay at current levels, given the political uncertainties,” Feng Huamin, an analyst at the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association, said at a media briefing on Wednesday.

The miners were trapped on Monday by a rock fall at the Pioneer gold mine. The mine, one of Russia’s largest, is located in the Amur region which borders China, about 5,300 km (3,300 miles) east of Moscow.

“The situation remains difficult,” Amur Governor Vasily Orlov said on Telegram. Orlov said that specialist mine rescuers had flown in from Russia’s vast coal region, the Kuznetsk Basin known as Kuzbass, and other Siberian regions.

He said hundreds of rescuers had cleared swathes of rubble and rock and that they were pumping out water. There was no contact with the trapped miners.

Orlov said that rescuers had decided to drill down through several hundred metres of rock to where the miners are, in an attempt to assess their condition and establish contact.

President Vladimir Putin has been informed of the situation and ordered that every effort be made to save the miners, the Kremlin said on Tuesday.

Russian emergency services said on Wednesday that the volume of rubble and rock at the mine was nine times larger than previously estimated, the RIA state news agency reported.

The mine is owned by sanctions-hit Russian copper and gold producer UMMC.

(By Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Mark Trevelyan)

In a paper published in the journal Nature Communications, the UB scientists present a global atlas of unburnable oil. This map was designed with environmental and social criteria that warn which oil resources should not be exploited to meet the commitments of the Paris Agreement signed in 2015 to mitigate the effects of climate change.

The atlas reveals that to limit global warming to 1.5°C, it is essential to avoid the exploitation of oil resources in the most socio-environmentally sensitive areas of the planet, such as natural protected areas, priority areas for biodiversity conservation, areas of high endemic species richness, urban areas and the territories of Indigenous peoples in voluntary isolation.

It also warns that not extracting oil/coal resources in these vulnerable places would not be enough to keep global warming below 1.5°C as indicated in the Paris Agreement.

New roadmap

In this context, the unburnable oil atlas provides a new roadmap to complement the demands of international climate policy—based primarily on demand for fossil fuels—and to enhance socio-environmental safeguards in the exploitation of energy resources.

“Our study reveals which oil resources should be kept underground and not commercially exploited, with special attention to those deposits that overlap with areas of high endemic richness or coincide with outstanding socio-environmental values in different regions of the planet,” lead researcher Martí Orta-Martínez said in a media statement. “The results show that the exploitation of the selected resources and reserves is totally incompatible with the achievement of the Paris Agreement commitments.”

Orta-Martínez pointed out that there is now a broad consensus among the scientific community to limit global warming to 1.5°C to avoid reaching the tipping points of the earth’s climate system, such as melting permafrost, loss of Arctic sea ice and the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and forest fires in boreal forests.

“If these thresholds are exceeded, this could lead to an abrupt release of carbon into the atmosphere – climate feedback – and amplify the effects of climate change and trigger a cascade of effects that commit the world to large-scale, irreversible changes,” he said.

Carbon budget nearly exhausted

To limit average global warming to 1.5°C, the total amount of CO2 emissions that must not be exceeded is known as the remaining carbon budget. In January 2023, the remaining carbon budget for the 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5°C was about 250 gigatonnes of CO2 (GtCO2).

“This budget is steadily decreasing at current rates of human-induced emissions—about 42 GtCO2 per year—and will be completely used up by 2028,” Lorenzo Pellegrini, first author of the article, said.

Pellegrini noted that the combustion of the world’s known fossil fuel resources would result in the emission of about 10,000 GtCO2, 40 times more than the carbon budget of 1.5°C.

“In addition, the combustion of developed fossil fuel reserves – that is, those reserves of oil and gas fields and coal mines currently in production or under construction – will emit 936 GtCO2, four times more than the remaining carbon budget for a global warming of 1.5°C,” co-author Gorka Muñoa said. “The goal of no more than 1.5°C global warming requires a complete halt to exploration for new fossil fuel deposits, a halt to the licensing of new fossil fuel extraction, and the premature closure of a very significant share (75%) of oil, gas and coal extraction projects currently in production or already developed.”

With this prospect, the authors call for urgent action by governments, corporations, citizens and large investors such as pension funds to immediately halt any investment in the fossil fuel industry and infrastructure if socio-environmental criteria are not applied.

”Massive investment in clean energy sources is needed to secure global energy demand, enact and support suspensions and bans on fossil fuel exploration and extraction, and adhere to the fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty,” the team concluded.

Highland Gold has been under US sanctions since December 2023. Putin’s order did not name the buyer.

(Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

“Communications are being restored and mechanized clearing of the transport slope is being carried out,” the ministry said on the Telegram messaging app.

The accident occurred at the Pioneer mine, one of the largest gold mines in Russia based on processing capacity, Russian media reported. The mine is located in the Eastern Siberia Amur region that borders China to the south.

The mine is owned by sanctions-hit Russian copper and gold producer UMMC.

(By Lidia Kelly; Editing by Lincoln Feast)

The group has been lobbying the EU for a ban on Russian-origin aluminum for its invasion of Ukraine. So far sanctions have not been imposed but they are still on the agenda.

Rusal sold 4.2 million metric tons of aluminum last year, most of it produced in Russia. The world’s largest aluminum producer outside China also has operations in Ireland, Sweden, Jamaica, Guinea and China. These assets mainly produce alumina or bauxite.

Bauxite is converted into alumina, a raw material to make aluminum used by companies in construction and packaging. It is also a key metal for the transport sector, where it is used for lightweighting electric vehicles to help extend battery range.

“The principle behind EU sanctions has been to try and do as much as possible to undermine the Russian war machine without creating harm to European industrial and by extension, societal interests,” Paul Voss, director general of European Aluminium.

“In a perfect world we would say we don’t need any of Rusal’s material and take a firm moral position regardless of the practical consequences. But European governments do not and cannot afford to reason that way. They have to be pragmatic.”

The EU currently has bans in place on aluminum wire, foil, tubes and pipes manufactured in Russia. But aluminum exports including primary metal, accounting for 85% of the total “remain outside the scope of the measures”, the group said last year.

EU imports of Russian primary aluminum have dropped since 2018, when the United States imposed sanctions on Rusal, but they are still significant. According to Trade Data Monitor, EU imports of Russian aluminum totalled 512,122 tons in 2023 or 8% of the total from 12% in 2022 and 19% in 2018.

Rusal said last week that sales to Europe contributed $3.4 billion to its $12.2-billion revenue in 2023.

Expectations of surpluses driven by low consumption and production increases mean the EU could more easily replace Russian aluminum from other producer countries or by more local production, said European Aluminium’s market intelligence director Djibril René.

(By Pratima Desai; Editing by David Evans)

Although Rusal itself is not a target of Western sanctions, its production costs have surged after Moscow sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022. While there are no sanctions on Russian aluminum, some Western consumers are shunning new deals for metals made in Russia.

Rusal’s aluminum sales rose 6.6% to 4.2 million metric tons in 2023, driven by release of excess inventory accumulated by the end of 2022, while production was largely unchanged at 3.8 million tons.

“The increase in physical sales was driven by successful redirection towards Asian markets,” Rusal said.

Revenue fell 12.6% to $12.2 billion, with Europe contributing $3.4 billion and Asia $4.7 billion. The rest mostly came from sales in Russia and the former Soviet Union.

Sales to China, which has become the company’s largest market after Russia, more than doubled to $2.86 billion from $1.19 billion in 2022.

Asia accounted for 38.4% of Rusal’s revenue in 2023, up from 27% in 2022. China’s share was 23.4%, compared with 8% a year earlier. Europe’s contribution fell to 27.8% from 35.7%, but it remained a key market, Rusal said in the report.

“Geopolitical tensions, including the unprecedented regime of external restrictions and supply chain disruptions, as well as a significant drop in aluminum prices, had a negative impact on the сompany’s results,” Rusal said.

The higher sales were offset by an 18% decrease in the weighted-average realized aluminum price to $2,439 per ton.

Rusal’s adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) slumped 61.2% to $786 million, while costs for sourcing key feedstock alumina jumped 9.9% to $2.03 billion with the loss of supplies from Ukraine and Australia.

That caused annual net profit to fall by 84.3% to $282 million.

Rusal last year bought a 30% stake in a Chinese alumina refinery and plans to build an alumina plant in Russia to reduce its reliance on imported raw materials.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova and Roushni Nair; Editing by Milla Nissi)

Coronavirus pandemic fallout and Moscow’s war in Ukraine have sent Western governments scrambling to reduce their reliance on Chinese supply chains and disentangle their economies from Russia.

But as Washington plots a course for its energy transition it is lagging behind China, which has spent the past decade securing access to minerals needed for the production of products like electric vehicle batteries and solar panels.

“We don’t want to be overly reliant on any one country or any one company for global supply chains for critical minerals,” Adeyemo told Reuters during a visit to a platinum mine in Marikana, South Africa, owned by Sibanye-Stillwater.

While the US government has launched a raft of measures to incentivize increased production of strategic and critical minerals at home, notably under the Inflation Reduction Act, Adeyemo acknowledged that overseas resources were also vital.

“Africa is going to play a huge role,” he said. “A lot of critical minerals are located here.”

Chinese assets in Africa already include massive copper and cobalt projects in Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia as well as lithium in Zimbabwe, where companies are assisted by heavy Chinese state investment in accompanying infrastructure.

Adeyemo said the United States was working with G7 allies to close that infrastructure gap.

The US International Development Finance Corporation is, meanwhile, aiming to de-risk private investment in Africa. And the deputy secretary said Washington was incentivizing US manufacturing to boost demand for those minerals and create favourable market conditions for miners.

But he added that the White House also stood ready to ensure a level playing field.

“We are talking to our European allies … about some of the actions we can take using trade tools to make sure that a country like China can’t flood the market with things like electric vehicles and solar panels,” he said.

Hold accountable

Regarding Russia, Adeyemo said countries like South Africa also had a role to play.

In the wake of Moscow’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the US government slapped sanctions on a number of Russian miners and mineral exports. But it left Russian platinum group metals (PGM) largely untouched.

The United States is a major consumer of palladium, a PGM used in catalytic converters, with 32% of its imports of the metal coming from Russia between 2019 and 2022, according to the US Geological Survey.

“South Africa has a real opportunity to help supply the global economy,” Adeyemo said. “And it gives us the ability to take other actions to hold Russia accountable.”

South Africa is a major palladium producer, and Sibanye-Stillwater mines the metal both in Marikana and at a US project in Montana.

“Between what comes out of South Africa and what’s produced in the US, the US does not need to be dependent on sources from any other country,” CEO Neal Froneman told Reuters.

However, he said companies like his needed US government support.

“You can provide loans or introduce tariffs or whatever it might be,” he said. “That is a role that they need to think very differently about and help companies that are trying to source and provide these critical metals into those ecosystems.”

(By Joe Bavier; Editing by Mark Potter)

The letter, dated March 13, said the disruptions would erode the competitive advantage of the centuries-old Antwerp diamond trade. It was addressed to Belgium’s main diamond industry group, Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AWDC), and requested a review of the new procedures.

Any impact is likely to be reduced by sluggish market conditions. Diamond inventories are high and prices have fallen. Paul Zimnisky, a global diamond analyst, said last month that prices were down 25% from their early 2022 peak.

Al Cook, CEO of mining company Anglo American’s De Beers’ diamond business, has said the miner would reduce production this year in response to surplus supply.

“While we fully support the decisions taken by Belgium, the European Union, and the G7 nations, in regards to the sanctions of January 1st 2024, the implementation of the measures to enforce the sanction has adversely affected all of our operations,” said the letter, signed by over 100 local firms.

“The intention was to prevent the flow of diamonds from sanctioned states, but the reality we face is the severe disruption of our supply chains, and alienation from the rest of the global trade.”

A Belgian government official said the delays were temporary and were easing.

The EU and Group of Seven (G7) countries agreed to ban direct imports of Russian diamonds to their markets as of Jan. 1 and before phasing in a full ban on Russian-origin stones via third countries from March 1 because of Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

Russia’s state-run Alrosa, which together with De Beers is one of the world’s top diamond producers, was also placed under sanctions by the EU.

Diamond hub

Antwerp remains the world’s biggest diamond hub though 90% of stones are polished in India. Belgium pushed hard for the G7 to adopt a version of its proposed plan to try to prevent Antwerp from losing more business after major Western jewellers began eschewing Russian stones.

Diamond dealers said their shipments have been held up for over a week at customs even if the gems were straight from African producers.

The Belgian government official said shipments pending would be processed within 24 hours.

“The indirect ban coincided with the Hong Kong Diamond Fair which is an annual peak period… This, in combination with the expected teething problems caused some initial delay in processing of shipments during the first days,” he said.

Diamond dealers say they expect more problems when the additional tracing requirements take effect from September.

“We see the procedures will cause Antwerp to further lose competitive advantage… rather than deal a meaningful blow to any sanctioned products,” the letter said.

“The current trajectory threatens the existence of Antwerp’s diamond industry, a heritage of six centuries.”

The head of the AWDC, Ari Epstein, said the group would soon present the new measures, adding it was “acutely aware of the challenges and disruptions this timing may have caused”.

“Let me be unequivocally clear: the violation of sanctions is criminal in nature and not taken lightly by governments or our organization. Our commitment to compliance… is unwavering and absolute,” Epstein said in a statement.

(By Dmitry Zhdannikov and Julia Payne; Editing by Gareth Jones)

Other oil companies, including Exxon Mobil and Occidental Petroleum, plan to take advantage of emerging technologies to filter lithium from brine, as the world seeks to move away from fossil fuels.

Saudi Arabia, whose economy for decades has relied on oil, has spent billions on trying to turn itself into a hub for EVs as part of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s attempts to find alternative sources of wealth.

Three people familiar with the matter said Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) were in the very early stages of work to extract lithium, regarded as a critical mineral by many major economies because of its use in battery manufacture.

They declined to give detail on the type of direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology that would be used.

Aramco did not respond to a request for comment, Adnoc declined to comment.

The three sources declined to be named because they were not authorised to speak publicly.

DLE technology is in its infancy and its economics are far less certain than those of oil.

But Saudi Arabia and the UAE can draw on expertise in handling oil brine and wastewater at oil production sites.

An advantage of filtering the ultralight battery metal from salt water is that it avoids the need for costly and environmentally challenging open pit mines or large evaporation ponds, as employed in the world’s leading producers Australia and Chile.

China is the biggest processor and consumer of lithium, needed for electric and hybrid vehicles.

Concentration and price collapse

For now, global economic weakness has depressed buying of new vehicles and led lithium prices to dive.

Lithium prices have fallen by about 80% since touching a peak in November 2022 as a slowdown in EV sales exacerbated a supply glut.

Leading carmakers, however, are among those looking for new lithium supplies in anticipation of future demand.

Analysts have said the EV industry will depend on lithium for years to come, even though cheaper battery technology alternatives using less or no lithium are being studied.

An issue with extracting lithium from brine is that concentration levels can be very low, making already uncertain economics less favourable.

One of the people said Aramco was working on using new filtration technology that seeks to solve the issue of concentration, while another person said Adnoc was also addressing that.

Saudi Arabia’s oil wealth means it can afford to take a financial risk and its diversification plans include establishing itself as a hub for EVs to make use of whatever lithium it produces.

The kingdom has established its own EV brand Ceer, and built an EV metals plant. Its sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), has a goal to produce 500,000 EVs annually by 2030.

Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma’aden), the Gulf’s largest miner, is working to extract lithium from seawater.

“There is good research in the kingdom with Ma’aden …and Aramco because the discharge of the oilfields have good salinity and good traces of minerals,” Saudi vice minister of industry and mineral resources Khalid bin Saleh Al-Mudaifer told Reuters on the sidelines of a press conference in Riyadh in December.

“They have done good work, they have done good extractions of sodium, magnesium, and traces of lithium. The technologies are in the early stage, but there is good work and good investment,” Al-Mudaifer added.

(By Clara Denina, Sarah McFarlane, Maha El Dahan, Pesha Magid, Ernest Scheyder and Eric Onstad; Editing by Veronica Brown and Barbara Lewis)

The deal involves Polymetal International selling its Russian business to Mangazeya Plus – part of businessman Sergey Yanchukov’s Mangazeya Mining – for around $3.7 billion, of which $2.2 billion is the Russian operation’s net debt.

(Editing by Alex Richardson)

Georgy Filomonov, the acting governor of the region, said a drone had hit the plant early in the morning and that state investigators were working on the scene.

“In the Vologda region at the Severstal enterprise this morning there was an incident in the area of the blast furnace which was struck by a drone of unidentified affiliation. The main thing is there are no casualties,” he said in a statement.

“In addition, the operation of the furnace was not disrupted and the enterprise is functioning in normal mode.”

Severstal earlier on Thursday had spoken of an unspecified “technological incident.”

(Editing by Andrew Osborn)

At least five US producers are reviving mines in states including Wyoming, Texas, Arizona and Utah, where production flourished until governments soured on the radioactive element following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan.

Most of those American mines were idled in the aftermath of Fukushima, when uranium prices crashed and countries like Germany and Japan initiated plans to phase out nuclear reactors.

Now, with governments turning to nuclear power to meet emissions targets and top uranium producers struggling to satisfy demand, prices of the silvery-white metal are surging. And that’s giving those once-unprofitable uranium operations a chance to fill a supply gap.

Uranium has been used as an energy source for more than six decades, fueling nuclear power plants and reactors. About two-thirds of global production comes from Kazakhstan, Canada and Australia.

Uranium will be a topic of conversation as thousands of mining executives, geologists and bankers descend on Toronto for the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada gathering this week. The annual event has attracted at least 10 uranium firms, including Denison Mines Corp., Fission Uranium Corp. and IsoEnergy Ltd.

As countries increasingly consider nuclear power to address climate change, demand for uranium is expected to skyrocket. The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates the world will need more than 100,000 metric tons of uranium per year by 2040 — an amount that requires nearly doubling mining and processing from current levels.

Canada’s Cameco Corp. and Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom, which together account for half of global supply, have struggled to ramp up production. They have warned of some operational setbacks that will result in less uranium output than expected in the coming years.

“We’re in an old-fashioned, plain-and-simple supply squeeze,” said Scott Melbye, executive vice president of Texas-based Uranium Energy Corp. “Demand is increasing again, with new reactors coming online.”

Production hasn’t kept pace due to years of underinvestment in mining and exploration, said Melbye, whose company is reopening mines in Wyoming and Texas that were idled in 2018.

Energy Fuels Inc. initiated plans late last year to restart operations in Arizona, Utah and Colorado, while Ur-Energy Inc. said it will dust off an idled mine in Wyoming. Mid-sized companies in Australia and Canada have announced similar plans.

To be sure, production from these mines — most of which are small and nearing the end of their lives — would comprise a small fraction of the world’s uranium supply.

“The industry is clearly trying to respond with smaller mines reopening, but when you have a mine that hasn’t operated for that long, it’s obviously not very substantive,” said John Ciampaglia, chief executive officer of Sprott Asset Management, which operates the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust.

Top producers

Supply constraints should ease with top producers churning out the millions of pounds of uranium they left in the ground when prices were low. Kazatomprom has been increasing output after years of operating well below its capacity.

Cameco has been ramping up production at the world’s largest high-grade uranium mine and mill — MacArthur River and Key Lake in the western Canadian province of Saskatchewan — after idling operations between 2018 and 2021 due to weak market conditions.

The two firms “will be very concerned about losing their market share to a bunch of juniors, and so they’ll want to claim that back,” said Tom Price, a senior commodities analyst at London-based investment bank Libereum. “That will take a lot of heat out of the market.”

Still, US mine reopenings mark a revival for an American industry that was at risk of disappearing only five years ago. American uranium production hit an all-time low of 174,000 pounds in 2019 — a drop from its 44-million-pound peak in 1980 — as the US started increasing dependence on imports from countries like Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan and Russia.

The US industry’s push is also political, with the government seeking to secure access to supply amid geopolitical uncertainty. Sanctions on Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine have posed challenges for uranium shipments en route from Kazakhstan, since the former Soviet state’s exports typically pass through Russian ports.

To keep up with demand, the Uranium Producers of America forecasts the US will need eight to 10 new, major mines to start production over the next decade.

(By Jacob Lorinc and Maria Clara Cobo)

The latest restriction adds to a ban on Russian diamonds announced in December and will provide Canadians “additional assurance that the diamonds that they purchase are not supporting Russia’s illegal war,” the Canadian foreign ministry said in a statement.

“Canada has been at the forefront of imposing economic barriers on the Putin Regime since he launched his brutal full-scale illegal invasion of Ukraine, which caused devastating losses to Ukrainians. Along with our allies and partners, we have imposed severe sanctions on the Russian regime, and we will continue to do so to hold Putin and his enablers to account,” said Canada’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly.

Russia is the world’s largest rough diamond producer, with its production valued at more than approximately $4.7 billion in 2022. It is also a significant global exporter of diamonds and diamond products, with the value of its total exports exceeding $5.2 billion in the same year.

Together, G7 countries represent 70% of the world diamond market.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Canada sanctioned Russia’s state-owned Alrosa.

Canada also revoked Russia’s most-favoured nation status, which effectively imposed a 35% tariff on all Russian imports to Canada.

This led to a drastic decrease in the value of all Russian imports, including products that will be subject to this ban, from $327,224 in 2022 to $13,440 for the first eight months of 2023.

Read More: Diamond producers warn of pitfalls in G7’s Russia gem ban

Russia, historically a minor exporter of the fuel to India, began boosting shipments to the south Asian country after Western sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

The latest US sanctions also include Russia’s payment system, financial institutions and energy production.

“With the new sanctions, I do not expect any of the big Indian companies to buy Russian cargoes,” one major Indian trader told Reuters on the sidelines of the Coaltrans conference in the western Indian state of Goa.

The traders, two Indian and one Russian, declined to be named as they are not authorised to speak to the media.

“Shipments of coal will still not stop, but people will be more hesitant to touch Russian cargoes,” the second Indian trader said, adding that the sanctions could benefit other coal suppliers such as Indonesia, Australia and South Africa.

Ship tracking data reviewed by Reuters shows Indian conglomerates JSW Group, Vedanta and consortium Arcelor Mittal Nippon Steel India were among the biggest importers of Russian thermal coal in the last six months.

The three companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment on any potential impact from the new sanctions.

SUEK, Russia’s largest coal producer and exporter, did not reply to an email seeking comment. Reuters was not immediately able to reach Mechel for comment.

Evidence of any immediate adverse impact of the new US sanctions announced last week could not be ascertained, as cargoes of thermal coal typically take more than two weeks to sail from Russia to India.

Russian supplies of thermal coal rose by 19% in 2023 to 10.06 million metric tons, or nearly 6% of Indian imports of the fuel, consultancy Bigmint said.

India’s trade ministry had no immediate comment on the impact of the sanctions on trade with Russia, but in a note on Wednesday the oil ministry highlighted “longstanding ties” with Moscow and future plans for partnerships across sectors.

India had become the biggest buyer of Russian seaborne crude since the start of the Ukraine war, a trade that also faces hurdles from the new US sanctions.

While expanding trade with Moscow since Western sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, New Delhi has consistently called for “complete cessation of all hostilities”, including in the note released by the oil ministry on Wednesday.

(By Sethuraman N R, Sudarshan Varadhan and Brijesh Patel; Editing by Alexander Smith)

Polymetal last month said it had agreed to sell its Russian assets to a Siberian gold miner for about $3.7 billion, a deal forced at a knock-down price by repercussions from the conflict in Ukraine.

BlackRock said the trade was executed on the Astana International Exchange (AIX) in Kazakhstan which is now the primary listing for Polymetal International.

Polymetal’s London-listed shares lost around 70% in a few days following Moscow’s launch of what it calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Polymetal in March 2022 disclosed that the US asset manager’s equity position had doubled between November 2019 and February 2022. On March 8, 2022, BlackRock’s stake dropped back below the 10% threshold.

Trading in London was suspended and Polymetal subsequently moved its domicile to Kazakhstan from Jersey, delisted from the London Stock Exchange and relisted in Astana.

Polymetal said in January that Russian investment company ICT Holding had sold its 23.9% stake in the company to a consortium led by the Omani government.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova and Alexander Marrow; Editing by Jan Harvey and Franklin Paul)

UK-based geospatial technology firm Getech (LSE: GTC) has announced a joint venture East Star Resources (LSE: EST) to pursue copper exploration opportunities in Kazakhstan.

As part of the new joint venture, Getech will use its proprietary data, enhanced by in-house artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities, to conduct a mineral systems analysis and structural interpretation for sedimentary-hosted copper and pinpoint prospective areas in the underexplored basins of Kazakhstan.

East Star, which currently holds copper licences on the Verkhuba deposit, as well as orogenic gold and rare earth prospects in the country, will lead the application process for the tenements/licences and spearhead operational activities.

In return for its services, Getech will have a call option to obtain shares at no cost in the JV company, equivalent to 5% of its issued capital, once exploration licenses are secured within the project areas. Getech’s 5% share is protected against dilution until a decision to mine has been made at one or more of the mining licenses.

According to the tech firm, this transaction is the first example of the company implementing its equity participation strategy. The new agreement demonstrates a change from generating fee income from subsurface searches to asset participation with the potential to generate substantially more value from its unique data.

“This collaboration presents us with significant upside potential and minimal risks. In the event of a successful exploration campaign, we obtain a 5% stake in one or more mining assets. The option has transformative value creation potential, which we can monetize at various stages,” Getech CEO Richard Bennett, CEO said in a release.

“Sediment-hosted copper deposits account for around 20% of global copper production and have the potential for Tier 1 deposits being sought by the global major mining companies. At no upfront cost to East Star, this play-type adds a potential third strand to East Star’s copper strategy, which includes a VMS deposit and a BHP-backed porphyry exploration program,” East Star’s CEO Alex Walker added.

Verkhuba hosts a JORC-compliant exploration target of 19-23 million tonnes grading 1.4-1.9% copper equivalent based on historical drilling.

The US and UK imposed sanctions against Polyus last year over Russia’s actions in Ukraine, a step that played some part in the company delisting its depositary receipts from the London Stock Exchange.

Polyus’ revenue jumped 28% year-on-year to $5.4 billion, partially boosted by high gold prices. Production rose 14% and gold sales climbed 20%, both to 2.9 million ounces.

But Polyus expects lower production in 2024, at 2.7 million-2.8 million ounces, with the expected decline to be driven by lower ore grades processed at Olimpiada, the company’s largest operating asset.

“Although the group has started (the) transition to alternative suppliers, full replacement of suppliers who left the Russian market may take a considerable time and involves additional costs and rescheduling of certain investment projects and capital commitments,” Polyus said in a report.

The company said its adjusted core profit rose 51% to $3.9 billion in 2023. It planned capital expenses this year in the range of $1.55 billion to $1.7 billion.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova and Alexander Marrow; Editing by David Goodman and Jan Harvey)

Russia is the biggest global supplier of uncut diamonds by volume. The international community has imposed new sanctions targeting Russian diamond transactions as part of a wider strategy aimed at reducing Moscow’s income streams, which support its military actions in Ukraine.

In December, the G7 nations of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S. declared an outright ban on Russian diamonds, effective from Jan. 1. That is to be followed by gradual implementation of restrictions on indirectly imported Russian diamonds starting from March 1. By September, a new system for verifying the origins of these gems is expected to be in place, although details regarding the verification process and its location remain uncertain.

“The G7 must understand that the direction they have chosen will cause great damage to the world diamond industry. We hope that the concerns we are voicing will convince the G7 governments that an alternative solution must be found,” WFDB president Yoram Dvash said in a Feb. 28 statement to The Northern Miner.

Criticism of the sanctions comes against a backdrop of lower demand for diamonds from India and China, and falling prices for rough stones, estimated by the Zimnisky Global Rough Diamond Price Index to be down about 25% from their early 2022 high.

‘Irreparable’ industry harm

The industry leaders are worried that enforcing these sanctions could lead to logistical, operational, and financial challenges. Among the sanctions’ new effects, one rule is that non-Russian diamonds must now be certified in Antwerp, Belgium before being sent to other markets.

They’re concerned about possible supply bottlenecks and unbalanced advantages to one player to the detriment of others.

“While strongly agreeing that the time has come for the industry to be able to trace the origin of their diamonds, we should be working together to meet these objectives but feel that the process that has been suggested will cause irreparable harm to the non-Russian industry,” presidents and members of the 27 diamond bourses within the WFDB said in the open letter.

Dvash says the WFDB is actively seeking industry consensus to address the challenges at hand. “Sanctions should work in the right direction, punishing the intended party and not the entire industry,” he said, adding that the sanctions could inadvertently make Russian diamonds more desirable due to increased costs and reduced supply of non-Russian alternatives.

The effect on the cost of rough and polished diamonds from non-Russian sources being forced into one node wasn’t considered in the calculations, the WFDB letter argued, voicing strong opposition to designating Antwerp as the single verification point.

“As diamond experts, we know that this would add no value to the objectives of the G7 member states and would result in a major restriction for all non-Russian diamonds, with terrible impacts on the industry,” the letter reads.

What’s more, the higher anticipated costs of shipping the diamonds to Belgium, which will ostensibly include extra financing terms for the diamond traders as well as insurance and freight charges will add significantly to the price of the stones.

Sovereign interference

The diamond bourses say the process detailed by the EU, as it stands, undermines sovereign African governments’ ability to send their gemstones directly to their chosen market. It also undermines legitimate local industry beneficiation and could encourage smuggling, which the WFDB says would be counterproductive.

Belgium favours conducting these verifications locally. Its support aligns with the Belgian government’s and the Antwerp World Diamond Centre’s aim to establish a hardy, traceable system for verifying the origins of diamonds to prevent Russian gems from entering the market under pretenses.

Botswana, Africa’s diamond hub, issued a statement on Feb. 9, generally supporting the initiatives to ensure that the diamond trade is responsible and does not fund conflict. Despite potentially facing added costs in a new verification system, the Botswana government sees an opportunity for enhanced value for its natural diamonds.

While the country has not directly banned Russian stones, it favours continued dialogue and partnerships with the G7 and other stakeholders to build a market that benefits development and avoids funding illegal activities. Botswana aims to protect and promote its diamonds-for-development narrative while ensuring its diamond industry remains a positive example of ethical sourcing and economic benefits.

Reuters reported on Feb. 8 from the Cape Town Mining Indaba that De Beers, a unit of Anglo American (LSE: AAL), and Botswana’s state-owned Okavango Diamond Company asked the G7 to consider unintended consequences as the bloc prepares to impose the second phase of the ban on Russian diamonds, concerned that African prices would be hugely inflated.

“Effectively (African producers) would be forced to send all their diamonds in one direction rather than choosing … (and) ethical African diamonds would become much more expensive,” De Beers CEO Al Cook told Reuters on the sidelines of the conference.

De Beers had previously urged the G7 to engage Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Angola and India to develop the framework with input from across the industry.

Diamond market outlook

The diamond leaders call for more explicit guidance and a more global, collaborative approach to ensure transparency and ethical sourcing without disproportionately impacting the broader industry. They stress the need for solutions that do not centralize trade to a single point (such as Antwerp) and request the adoption of technology that could support the ethical tracking of diamonds across all regions, including support for artisanal and small-scale miners.

The signatories also want the G7 and EU to give assurance that whichever provenance-proving technology they settle on for diamond verification should be shared universally with non-Russian diamond producers to enable their continued inclusion in the market.

Artisanal and small-scale miners must also have free access to the technology and should be able to send their rough stones to any cutting centre.

While the Russian diamond sanctions intensify, De Beers said in a Feb. 22 market update that industry conditions are expected to remain “challenging” in the short term but that the long-term outlook is favourable.

De Beers says the heightened emphasis on the origins of diamonds, particularly with the upcoming G7 restrictions, may boost demand for De Beers’ diamonds, especially those tracked via their blockchain platform, Tracr.

However, the global supply of rough diamonds may decrease due to aging mines and few discoveries.

Further, De Beers says the market for lab-grown diamonds is experiencing a significant price drop, impacting manufacturers and possibly reducing retail prices, which could enhance the perceived value of natural diamonds compared to lab-grown alternatives.

Turnover was up 9.2% at 322.6 billion roubles.

Group of Seven leaders agreed in December to ban non-industrial diamonds from Russia by January, and Russian diamonds sold by third countries from March.

The European Union added Alrosa, Russia’s biggest diamond producer, to its sanctions list in January as part of punitive measures it has imposed on Moscow over the war in Ukraine.

($1 = 92.0625 roubles)

(Editing by Alexander Smith)

Global silver output from mines is expected to rise by 4% this year to 843 million troy ounces, the highest level in six years, partly due to the commissioning of Prognoz, according to the Silver Institute and consultancy Metals Focus.

“The silver concentrate will reach the global market in the third quarter of 2024,” said Polymetal, a Russian subsidiary of Polymetal International. The Russian subsidiary is due to change owner next month.

The open-pit mine will produce 5-7 million troy ounces of silver in silver concentrate on average a year, it added.

Ore mining at Prognoz, in Russia’s far east, started in the second quarter of 2023. The ore is now being transported for processing to Polymetal’s Nezhda concentrator located 675 km (419 miles) away from the mine.

Polymetal International said last week it would sell all its Russian assets, including Prognoz, to a Siberian gold miner to focus on its assets in Kazakhstan after the Russian ones were hit by Western sanctions.

The new owner has said that Polymetal’s current Russian management will stay on.

Despite rising output from mines, silver – used in jewellery, electronics, electric vehicles and solar panels as well as an investment – faces a fourth year of structural market deficit in 2024.

Reuters‘ latest poll of analysts shows them expecting silver prices to average $24.94 per ounce in 2024. The spot price on Wednesday stood at around $22.3.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova and Polina Devitt; Editing by Mark Potter)

The redomiciliation, SRG said, will provide the company with expanded “strategic optionality” as the UAE has a double taxation treaty and a bilateral investment treaty with the Republic of Guinea, where SRG’s main asset, the Lola graphite project, is located.

The move will also avoid a national security review into its financing deal with China’s Carbon ONE New Energy Group (C-ONE), the Globe and Mail reported.

The Canadian government has scrutinized Chinese investment in the country’s junior mining sector, and in 2022, it asked three Chinese companies to sell their stakes in Toronto-listed lithium explorers after a national security review, a move that raised questions about the future of other Chinese investments in the Canadian mining sector.

Canada’s Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson told Reuters last year that the Canadian government would not force Chinese state investors to divest their stakes in large mining companies, including Teck Resources, Ivanhoe Mines and First Quantum Minerals, to avoid policy uncertainty.

C-ONE, a private anode materials company based in China, announced in July 2023 it planned to invest C$16.9 million ($12.7 million) into SRG in exchange for 19.4% of SRG’s share capital, matching La Mancha’s stake in the company upon exercise of its anti-dilution right. The deal established C-ONE as one of SRG’s largest shareholders ─ La Mancha Resource Fund is the largest.

The funds will be used to advance SRG’s large-scale mine development project at the Lola graphite project, as well as the development of an anode material plant, the location of which is yet to be determined.

The company said at the time the transaction is subject to registration with Chinese regulatory agencies as well as the Canadian government, pursuant to a voluntary notification filing pursuant to the Investment Canada Act.

The company said it has met with other strategic partners who have expressed interest in becoming a Tier 1 supplier to the Western battery end markets and has been advancing discussions with multiple parties who have expressed interest in providing financing to advance SRG towards first production.

Located approximately 1,000 km southeast of Conakry, the capital of Guinea, the Lola deposit boasts a large mineral reserve of 42 million tonnes at a grade of 4.17% graphitic carbon (Cg). Over an estimated mine life of 29 years, it is expected to produce 54,600 tonnes of natural flake graphite annually.

SRG is currently updating the project’s feasibility study to confirm the capital and operating costs for a target initial production of 100,000 tonnes per annum, double from the initial 50,000 tpa envisioned in the 2019 feasibility study.

SRG said it aims to develop a fully integrated source of battery anode material to supply the European lithium-ion and fuel cell markets.

Kazakhstan is expected to deliver the highest uranium production growth in 2024, GlobalData says, driven by the planned higher output from the country’s largest uranium producer Kazatomprom. The continuous ramp-up of Canada’s McArthur River uranium mine will also contribute to the global increase, it adds.

Kazakhstan accounted for 37.3% (20.1kt) of total global uranium supply in 2023. Despite a 5.1% dip in output in 2023 due to planned lower production from Kazatomprom, its output is expected to recover in 2024, with forecast production of 23.2kt. This will be supported by the company’s plan to produce between 21.2-21.6kt on a 100% basis, while production is expected to increase to between 25.9-26.7kt with no restrictions in 2025.

Meanwhile, global uranium production in 2024 will be further bolstered by continuous ramp-up of Canada’s McArthur River, which is aiming to produce 6.9kt of uranium (8.2kt of U3O8) for 2024. In October 2023, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission renewed the licences for McArthur River for a further 20 years, allowing the mine to continue operations until October 2043.

Global uranium production is expected to grow with a compound annual growth rate of 4.1% from 2024 to 2030, as output reaches 76.8kt in 2030.

Read More: Uranium price jumps to 15-year high as top miner flags shortfall

So what happened to cause prices to tumble? 

The pandemic years brought generational volatility to diamond supply. In 2020, production dipped to the lowest levels since the 1990s. A recovery in 2021 through 2023 ensued. However, the new “normal” for output is still some 15-30 million carats below pre-2020 levels.   

Global diamond production should hit 118 million carats this year, which compares to an estimated 110 million carats in 2020, but well short of the 136 million carats in 2019 and the 147 million carats in 2018. 

Demand for diamonds has been equally volatile over the last four years, impacting both rough and polished prices.  

Last year, the industry experienced a “bullwhip effect” of sorts as producers and traders rushed to replenish depleted stock following furious demand in 2021 and early 2022. The flood of new goods resulted in the buyers of rough diamonds (the midstream comprised of rough buyers, polishers and jewelry manufacturers) stringently curtailing new purchases as 2023 wound down. 

As a result, in last year’s fourth quarter, De Beers’ sales fell some 70% year-over-year in value terms – equating to an estimated $1 billion build in stock. Russia’s Alrosa suspended all sales outright in October and November, resulting in the accumulation of stock worth hundreds of millions of dollars.  

While the majors’ healthier balance sheets give them more flexibility in such situations, the impact on smaller, independent producers has been more immediate and consequential. 

In late October, Canada’s Stornoway Diamonds filed for bankruptcy for a second time. The first time was in 2019 and the Renard mine in Quebec was most recently run by creditors of the previously listed company, including Osisko Gold Royalties (TSX: OR) and Investissement Québec. Stornoway put Renard on indefinite care and maintenance following what it described as a “significant and sudden drop” in global diamond prices. The mine, which began production in late 2016, has produced upwards of 2 million carats annually. 

In early November, South Africa’s Petra Diamonds (LSE: PDL) deferred as much as $60 million in capital projects related to the extension of its two primary assets, the Cullinan and Finsch mines. The impact on supply will likely be felt in the back half of 2024 and into 2025.

Lab-made diamonds have also had an impact on the natural diamond sector. However, while they currently make up about 20% of global diamond jewelry demand, they have yet to gain wide acceptance outside of the United States. It should also be recognized that they have added incremental demand – i.e. some buyers of lab-grown diamonds would never have considered a natural diamond. 

2024 wildcard

Going into 2024, it is likely that miners will release into the market at least some excess stock they hold on any sign of a demand recovery. However, by the second half of the year, the market’s medium and longer-term supply dynamic could become more noticeable. 

An added “wildcard” will be the impact of wider Western sanctions on Russian diamonds, which come into full force this year. While the immediate impact of the embargo may not be as acute as some are projecting, the risk of further supply disruptions remains a possibility, especially in the medium term.  

As of March, all 1-carat-plus polished Russian stones (including those cut and polished outside of Russia) will be targeted by the G-7 countries and the larger European Union. As of September, the threshold will be expanded to include all stones 0.5 carat and larger. That said, the half-carat cutoff still excludes the majority of Russian supply by volume and an estimated 30-40% by value as Russian production is disproportionately skewed towards smaller diamonds.  

On a more micro supply note, commercial production at the newly inaugurated Luele mine (formerly referred to as Luaxe) in Angola will ramp up this year. A nearly completed first-phase processing plant will allow the mine to produce up to 4-5 million carats annually, making it an important source of new supply as aging mines around the world are depleted.  

During a press conference in November, Angolan officials said that Luele production could be “gradually” expanded as additional plant phases are added – which could eventually triple output. Luele’s resource is estimated at over 600 million carats, which could support a 60-plus year mine life. 

A moderate recovery in both rough and polished prices is likely this year. Price gains from seasonal restocking early in the year will probably be modest, as supply that was held back late last year is sold. However, by mid-year the midstream’s efforts to control supply could start to take effect. That could be further compounded by the global supply impact of the sanctions on Russian diamonds. 

Any price rise would still need to be supported by demand – for example, via a “soft landing” in a global macro-economic sense, which financial markets are implying. Demand out of China, the diamond industry’s second largest end-consumer market remains another key variable as the nation grapples with a secular slowdown in its economy and what some consider an emerging property crisis. 

Paul Zimnisky is a chartered financial analyst and independent diamond industry consultant based in New York (www.paulzimnisky.com). He can be reached at paul@paulzimnisky.com and followed on X @paulzimnisky. 

The action announced on Friday included measures against more than 500 people and entities linked to Russia’s war machine, but left the country’s base metals industries unscathed. The two metals had been buoyed this week by expectations that the package might put pressure on supplies.

Nickel, which had steadily gained this week in anticipation of the sanctions news, pared an earlier advance of as much as 1.2% to trade just 0.3% higher. Aluminum retreated as much as 1.1% on Friday.

In the aluminum market, prices had touched the highest since early February on Wednesday, following US President Joe Biden’s earlier announcement that new sanctions would be imposed in response to the death of Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny. The latest wave of US measures also comes on the eve of the second anniversary of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

The absence of new measures turned the focus back to market fundamentals.

“Aluminium has erased all the gains this afternoon after being buoyed this week by speculation of sanctions,” ING Groep NV commodities strategist Ewa Manthey said.

“Now the focus moves back to demand side woes including the challenging macro backdrop in China and higher borrowing costs and the uncertain path of US Fed’s easing cycle. We believe global economic uncertainty will continue to weigh on the outlook for aluminium.”

Nickel was still set for a gain of more than 6% this week, the biggest weekly advance since July. The bounce in nickel may have been fueled by earlier short covering from wrong-footed hedge funds, according to Saxo Bank A/S commodity strategist Ole Hansen.

Still, that market remains oversupplied, Manthey said earlier.

Russia’s metals and mining industry escaped blanket restrictions until last December, when the UK — home of the London Metal Exchange — announced its own curbs. But some consumers and traders have balked at buying Russian metal for some time, and the UK’s steps just added to the growing complexity of handling material from the country.

Nickel traded at $17,450 a ton on the LME at 4:09 p.m. London time. Aluminum slid 0.9% to $2,178.50 a ton, while copper fell 0.4%.

US President Joe Biden said the US plans to unveil a “major” sanctions package against Moscow on Friday, although he wasn’t specific about which industries would be affected. Traders have been on the lookout for new restrictions on Russian metals, which had escaped broad sanctions until the UK announced its own curbs in December.

The proposed curbs would be designed to “hold Russia responsible” for the death of opposition leader Alexey Navalny, White House spokesperson John Kirby said.

[Click here for interactive aluminum price chart]

Aluminum futures rose more than 2% in on Wednesday, after spiking in response to Biden’s comments on Tuesday. Nickel was up nearly 2%.

“Prices are rising on the Biden news as investors are assessing the potential measures and impact,” Li Jiahui, an analyst at Shanghai Metals Market, said by phone. “Investors are awaiting for the specific measures to land.”

In December, the United Kingdom moved to block British individuals and entities from trading physical metals including aluminum, copper and nickel from Russia. At the time, the UK also hinted at the possibility of coordinated action with international partners. UK policy is important because of the significant role played by the London Metal Exchange in global metals markets.

Aluminum was up 2.6% to $2,251.50 a ton on the LME at 9:50 a.m. in London. Nickel rose 1.8%, and copper was up 0.4%.

Researchers at Skoltech, the Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and other scientific organizations have found a way to improve diamond adhesion —the bond between diamond and transition metal—using niobium.

In a paper published in the Journal of Alloys and Compounds, the scientists explain that although diamonds are beautiful gemstones, rough diamonds are much more interesting from a scientific point of view.

One of the promising areas of research towards diamond technological applications is diamond surface metallization, which is used to give the diamond surface new characteristics such as superior thermal conductivity, good thermal stability, improved wettability, and its original physical and chemical properties.

“Diamond, however, has two limitations related to the synthesis of large-sized diamond substrate and poor adhesion of metal contacts to the diamond surface,” Stanislav Evlashin, co-author of the study, said in a media statement.

“For example, when we worked on detectors for ionizing radiation and applied contacts made of gold and other materials, the adhesion of such contacts to diamond was very poor. At that point, we wondered how we could overcome such poor adhesion.”

One of the most effective ways to metalize diamonds is by sintering them with such metals as titanium, chromium, tantalum, zirconium, and others. When they interact with carbon, a layer of metal carbide is formed. The authors of the study chose niobium because of its ability to form chemically stable films of niobium carbides on the diamond surface.

“We attempted to create a superconductor on the diamond surface and realized that if we deposit niobium on it and then anneal it, the following phase transformations occur during annealing: the niobium film after heating turns into the Nb₂C compound, and after further heating over 1200 degrees—into NbC,” Evlashin said.

According to Evlashing and his colleague Alexander Kvashnin, theoretical calculations of the constant lattice of niobium carbide depending on the concentration of carbon defects—often in the experiment there is a carbon deficiency—have shown that the used method of synthesis of niobium carbide on diamond allows to obtain high-quality niobium carbide with a lattice parameter close to defect-free material.

“Calculations of the superconducting characteristics of niobium carbide showed a superconducting transition at a temperature of 19.4 K, which turned out to be close to the experimentally measured value,” Kvashnin said. “The results also indicate the high quality of the experimentally obtained film.”

Quantum detection devices

Notably, the low concentration of defects in the obtained niobium carbide film leads to sufficiently high values of electron diffusion, compared to other niobium-based alloys. This, together with the observed superconducting characteristics, is of practical interest for quantum detection devices.

The researchers proved that the obtained niobium carbide layer has superconductive characteristics. If this film is applied to the surface of the diamond, it will be possible to create super-sensitive detectors due to its high thermal conductivity. The high thermal conductivity of diamond will help detect signals and it would happen much faster than with other materials.

A majority of the MRE is in the measured and indicated category, totalling 22 million tonnes at 0.48% copper for 106,000 tonnes. The remaining resource (2.9 million tonnes at 0.44% copper for 12,800 tonnes) are in the inferred category.

In July 2022, an extensive geological exploration program began at the Xarxar deposit, targeting the central copper mineralization zone. Surface drill holes intercepted significant high-grade and continuous grades of copper mineralization, with intercepts of continuous copper for up to 380 metres.

Last month, the company confirmed the significant quantity of copper mineralization at Xarxar following analysis of recent surface drilling on the project.

Data for 66 holes with a total length of 21,707 metres (including historical drilling) were eventually used to complete the first resource estimate for Xarxar.

This resource estimate, Anglo Asian’s VP Stephen Westhead said, demonstrates that the deposit is “a substantial resource” containing over 100,000 tonnes of copper. According to the company, the Xarxar deposit still has significant additional exploration potential.

“To further expand the current mineral resources estimate, work will include surface infill drilling to the east of the deposit, deposit geotechnical and hydrogeological drilling, and drilling to supply samples for further metallurgical testwork,” Westhead added.

The resource estimate was prepared using a copper price of $9,000 per tonne to determine the amount of metal under the reasonable prospects for eventual economic extraction under JORC criteria.

The parameters of an open pit were also determined at a copper selling price of $20,000 to calculate a “maximum” pit floor depth, which was used to define two zones (one upper and one lower). The upper zone is calculated to have resources ranging from 5.0 to 10.2 million tonnes at 0.2% to 0.3% copper.

The Xarxar deposit is one of several exploration-stage assets held by Anglo Asian in Azerbaijan. The group currently produces gold, silver and copper from its flagship Gedabek mine, with four more mines planned to come online over the next four years.

The gold miner agreed to sell its Russian unit — that it spent decades building — to Russian firm Mangazeya Plus, with completion of the deal marked for end-March, Polymetal said on Monday. The deal is valued at about $3.7 billion, yet after tax Polymetal is expected to receive $300 million in cash as it includes third-party debt and intra-group arrangements.

The sale highlights the consequences that international businesses with Russian exposure are facing after President Vladimir Putin ordered to send troops to Ukraine almost two years ago.

Following the invasion, Polymetal switched its domicile from Jersey, deemed an unfriendly jurisdiction by the Kremlin, to Kazakhstan to unblock international payments, including dividends, from Russia. After the US sanctioned the St. Petersburg-based unit in May 2023, Polymetal began looking for a buyer for the assets, which accounted for 70% of its revenue last year.

That wasn’t an easy task. Mangazeya Plus is a part of a Russian group that has small gold mining assets in Siberia and is controlled by entrepreneur Sergey Yanchukov. Neither he nor the company are under penalties. While the buyer showed interest during early stages, it turned into the leading bidder following sanctions on many bigger Russian gold-miners at the end of last year, Polymetal’s chief executive officer Vitaly Nesis said in a phone interview.

The transaction, which still requires shareholder approval, will mark a new stage for Polymetal, a miner that was founded in 1998. It will be left with an annual output of about 500,000 ounces per year, turning it into it mid-size producer by global standards. In 2023 the group produced 1.7 million ounces in gold equivalent, including the Russian unit.

“It is certainly not enough for a publicly-traded gold miner,” Nesis said, adding that the firm is working on its new strategy and expansion plan. “Our mid-term target is at least one million ounces per year in gold equivalent and we will have to look not at gold only, but at copper and other metals.”

The sale of the Russian unit was backed by the Omani government-owned fund that became a major Polymetal shareholder in January.

Payments under the deal will be denominated in rubles. The amounts include a dividend of nearly $1.43 billion before tax that the Russian unit will pay to the Kazakh company. Polymetal will use about $1.15 billion of that to pay intragroup debt and interest to the Russian company. The transaction value also includes $2.2 billion of net debt retained by Polymetal Russia, while the buyer will pay $50 million in cash to the Kazakh company after the deal is completed.

Polymetal will continue to use the Amursk POX processing facility in Russia to process gold concentrate until it builds its own plant in Kazakhstan. The company is in contact with the US authorities to ensure that won’t lead to secondary sanctions, according to the statement.

While many large multinationals publicly declared they’d withdraw from Russia after Putin sent troops into Ukraine, there are fewer examples of big business owners splitting their assets or selling out. Dutch-registered Yandex NV agreed to sell its Russian business for about $5.2 billion this month, and major shareholders of GlobalTrans and Qiwi said they sold their assets earlier this year.

Polymetal’s Russian assets were placed under US sanctions in 2023 in response to Moscow sending troops into Ukraine in February 2022 and the company switched its domicile to Kazakhstan from Jersey and listed on the Central Asian nation’s Astana International Exchange (AIX) to try to facilitate a sale.

The deal involves Polymetal International selling its Russian business to Mangazeya Plus – part of businessman Sergey Yanchukov’s Mangazeya Mining – for around $3.69 billion, of which $2.21 billion is the Russian operation’s net debt.

Polymetal’s Moscow-listed shares tumbled 8.6% by 1440 GMT.

Polymetal International CEO Vitaly Nesis said achieving a sale was “imperative” and that with the external environment deteriorating over time, there was no point waiting for general conditions around doing business in Russia to improve.

“The current situation is … unsustainable even in the short run,” Nesis told investors. “We do not have an option of sitting on our hands and waiting for something to happen.”

Polymetal’s Russian assets represent around 70% of production and more than 50% of core earnings. In 2021, the company’s market capitalisation was more than $10 billion. Moscow demands a hefty discount on foreign asset sales.

“We are satisfied that this is a good deal, but it’s certainly not a great deal,” Nesis told Reuters. “It’s clear we are not selling the assets for fair value.”

Tinkoff Investments analysts said the deal valued the assets at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.5 times, implying a “significant discount” to Russian peers’ current multiples and to the group’s historical average multiple of around 8 times.

The buyer

Mangazeya’s offer was the only realistic option of the three or four final proposals, Nesis said.

“This buyer understood that an extra $100-200 million is not as important to us as the complete elimination of key vulnerabilities in the structure of the new company,” he told Reuters.

Mangazeya Mining has largely operated in eastern Siberia since forming in 2011. It produced 466,00 ounces of gold last year, its website says, compared with Polymetal’s 1.23 million gold equivalent ounces in Russia.

Yanchukov said the management team, led by CEO Sergey Cherkashin, would stay on.

Urging shareholders to approve the deal, Nesis said nationalisation had been a risk and that Polymetal International’s board had no management oversight of the Russian business.

The transaction is fully compliant with all sanctions, the company said. Payments will be made in roubles.

The deal includes cash of $1.48 billion, of which $1.43 billion is dividends from the Russian business, and an additional $50 million.

Polymetal International, which will remain Kazakhstan’s second-largest gold producer after the transaction, intends to use $1.15 billion of dividends received to repay intra-group debt.

It will spend part of $300 million retained in post-tax proceeds on developing the Ertis POX project in Kazakhstan.

Nesis said the company had started looking at possible M&A deals in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and was planning to eventually return to the London Stock Exchange after building up the company to production of 1 million gold equivalent ounces in three years.

“It’s senseless to return to London with the current size of the company,” he said.

With growth the priority, dividends will take a back seat, with a decision on payouts to be taken in May.

“Trying to pretend that nothing has happened or that things have gone back to normal… is very naive,” he said. “We have to adapt to the new, hard realities.”

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova and Alexander Marrow; Editing by Kim Coghill, Muralikumar Anantharaman, David Goodman and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

The application marks the latest flare-up in relations between two of Russia’s biggest metal companies.

Nornickel is the world’s largest palladium producer and a major miner of refined nickel. Potanin holds a 37% stake in it, while Rusal holds 26.4% and former Chelsea Football Club owner Abramovich has a 4% stake.

The aluminum giant claims that Potanin violated a shareholder agreement signed in December 2012, causing losses for Rusal. Abramovich and his investment company Millhouse, later replaced by Crispian Investments, were parties to the deal.

Crispian Investments objected to Rusal’s application, while Abramovich did not respond to it, said David Mumford, KC for Rusal at Friday’s hearing.

Judge Sean O’Sullivan, however, ruled that Abramovich and Crispin could be added to the case, after the hearing.

“The joining of Crispian Investments Limited and Mr. Roman Abramovich as parties to the case is another step for the implementation of Rusal’s claims against Mr. Vladimir Potanin and his company Whiteleave Holdings Limited,” Rusal said in an emailed statement.

Potanin’s Interros holding company declined to comment.

Nornickel has not been directly targeted by Western sanctions after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but Britain has placed sanctions on Potanin and Abramovich.

Oleg Deripaska, founder of Rusal and also sanctioned by Britain, is not a party to the litigation.

The dispute that led to the lawsuit, first filed in October 2022, and Rusal’s further claims, centre on the 2012 framework agreement between Nornickel’s two largest shareholders, which protected dividend payouts among other things.

Disagreements over dividends and governance have been the main reason for on-and-off rows. At the time of the 2012 framework agreement, Abramovich helped to cool a dispute over how much profit should be returned to investors and how much should be invested in Nornickel.

Rusal alleges in court filings that Potanin “had overseen the transfer of crucial assets out of the NN Group (Nornickel) under false pretences and/or at undervalues to the advantage of himself and his associates, dishonestly procured the transfer out of …the NN Group of hundreds of millions of dollars and mismanaged the NN Group, which has led directly to certain industrial accidents.”

(By Clara Denina, Sam Tobin and Polina Devitt; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

Recent talks with prospective buyers have signaled there’s additional interest in new off-take agreements and that’s likely to increase after Kazakhstan’s state-run miner Kazatomprom lowered its production guidance earlier this month, according to Bannerman Energy Ltd.

“It’s clear to us from those discussions that utilities want to see greater diversification of supply,” said Brandon Munro, chief executive officer of Perth-based Bannerman, which aims to bring the Etango project in Namibia into production by the end of 2026. “We think the long-term picture remains strong.”

Kazatomprom this month lowered its 2024 guidance by as much as 14%, having previously warned it’s likely to fall short of production targets into 2025.

At the same time, uranium demand is being boosted as nations including China, Japan, South Korea and France revive or expand their nuclear power fleets, said John Borshoff, CEO of Deep Yellow Ltd., with projects in Australia and Namibia.

“I think it’s a great time for producers, and it’ll be a sustainable period of high prices for at least a decade,” Borshoff said. Deep Yellow forecasts first production from its Tumas project in Namibia in 2026.

(By Carmeli Argana)

The Democratic Republic of Congo’s mining unit wants to buy three of the Khazakh miner’s assets in the country and has funds to finance the purchase, Robert Lukama, the chairman of Gecamines told Reuters.

Lukama declined to name the projects or mines Gecamines wants to buy but said the company is targeting three of ERG’s several assets in the world’s top cobalt supplier.

ERG didn’t immediately respond to emailed questions.

“We have a firm proposal and we can confirm our proposal,” Lukama said in an interview. “We showed our seriousness and we showed that we have the means to buy the assets.”

Luxembourg-based ERG is 40% owned by the Kazakhstan government and its assets in Congo include Frontier mine, Comide, Metalkol, Boss Mining and some development and near-production assets.

Gecamines, which ranked among the world’s top copper producers in the 1980s, is pushing for a bigger role in production and supply of critical minerals. Last year the state miner said it was leveraging its shareholding in joint ventures to secure rights to buy and trade in copper and cobalt.

Gecamines’ offer is not conditional on the level of development or state assets are in and the miner is working hard to find common ground with ERG, Lukama said.

“We made an offer to buy some assets of ERG in good shape or not, it doesn’t matter for us,” he said. “We are still confident that we can convince them where the best interests are for us, for them and for the country.”

He added that Gecamines is focused on creating value and is “entitled” to claim back undeveloped assets.

ERG has been negotiating with DRC authorities to lift the suspension of its Boss Mining operations. The government halted the operations in June last year after accusing ERG of polluting the environment.

Lukama said the loss of production at Boss Mining is depriving both shareholders of revenue. Gecamines owns a 49% stake in Boss Mining, which targets producing about 25,000 tons of copper and more than 3,000 tons of cobalt annually.

(By Felix Njini; Editing by Susan Fenton)

In a paper published in the journal Nature Communications, the scientists explain that their method will simplify the detection of diamond deposits. The process relies on the chemical composition of kimberlites, which occur only on very old continental blocks that have remained geologically unchanged for billions of years, predominantly in Canada, South America, central and southern Africa, Australia and Siberia.

According to the study’s lead author, Andrea Giuliani, olivine is a mineral that makes up around half of kimberlite rock and consists of varying proportions of magnesium and iron. The more iron olivine contains, the less magnesium it has and vice versa.

“In rock samples where the olivine was very rich in iron, there were no diamonds or only very few,” Giuliani, who has been studying the formation and occurrence of the gemstones since 2015, said in a media statement. “We started to collect more samples and data, and we always got the same result.”

His investigations ultimately confirmed that olivine’s iron-to-magnesium ratio is directly related to the diamond content of the kimberlite. Giuliani and his team took these findings back to De Beers, who had provided them with the kimberlite samples. The company was interested and provided the scientific study with financial support and asked the researchers not to publish the results for the time being.

A slow, repetitive process

In 2019, Giuliani moved from Melbourne to ETH Zurich and, supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation, began to look for explanations for the connection between olivine’s magnesium and iron content and the presence of diamonds.

With his new colleagues, he examined how the process of metasomatism, which takes place in the earth’s interior, affects diamonds. In metasomatism, hot liquids and melts attack the rock. The minerals present in the rock react with the substances dissolved in the fluids to form other minerals.

The geologists analyzed kimberlite samples that contained olivines with a high iron content—and hence no diamonds. They discovered that olivine becomes richer in iron in the places where melt penetrates the lithospheric mantle and changes the composition of mantle rocks significantly. And it is precisely in this layer, at a depth of around 150 kilometres, that diamonds are present.

The infiltration of the melt that makes olivine richer in iron destroys diamonds. If, on the other hand, no or only a small amount of melt from underlying layers penetrates the lithospheric mantle and thus no metasomatism takes place, the olivine contains more magnesium—and the diamonds are preserved.

“Our study shows that diamonds remain intact only when kimberlites entrain mantle fragments on their way up that haven’t extensively interacted with previous melt,” Giuliani said.

A key point is that kimberlites don’t normally reach the earth’s surface in one go. Rather, they begin to rise as a liquid mass, pick up fragments of the mantle on the way, cool down and then get stuck. In the next wave, more melt swells up from the depths, entrains components of the cooled mantle, rises higher, cools, and gets stuck. This process can happen multiple times.

“It’s a real stop-and-go process of melting, ascent and solidification. And that has a destructive effect on diamonds,” Giuliani noted. If, on the other hand, conditions prevail that allow kimberlites to rise directly to the surface, then this is ideal for the preservation of the gemstones.

De Beers is already using olivine analysis

Olivine analysis is as reliable as previous prospecting methods, which are mainly based on the minerals clinopyroxene and garnet. However, the new method is easier and faster: it takes only a few analyses to get an idea of whether a given kimberlite field has diamonds or not.

“The great thing about this new method is not only that it’s simpler, but also that it finally allows us to understand why the previous methods worked,” Giuliani said. “De Beers is already using this new method.”

Geopolitical risks have also hampered Nornickel, the world’s largest palladium producer and a major producer of refined nickel, and made Asia Nornickel’s largest sales market with a share of more than 50% for the first time in its history.

“The year 2023 was marked by a slump of metal prices and a lingering external political pressure on Russian business that affected our financial results,” CEO Vladimir Potanin said in a statement.

“The company managed … to sell all metals produced in the reported period by redirecting sales to friendly countries,” he added.

Potanin said last year that Western sanctions on Russia in response to the conflict in Ukraine had constrained Nornickel’s development, though the measures have not targeted the company directly.

Full-year revenue fell 15% to $14.4 billion, while earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell 21% to $6.9 billion.

Last week, Nornickel said it expected a further decline in its nickel and palladium output this year, due to geopolitical risks and postponed furnace repairs, following a drop in production in 2023.

Capital expenditure (capex) fell 29% in 2023 to $3 billion, partly due to the “rescheduling of investment projects owing to voluntary self-sanctions imposed by foreign suppliers of equipment and technologies”, Nornickel said.

In 2024, capex is seen at $3-3.2 billion, it said in a presentation.

As Nornickel redirects part of its sales towards Asia, “borrowing in Chinese yuan is a priority for the company at the moment,” its chief financial officer, Sergey Malyshev said.

The company had free cash flow of $2.7 billion in 2023, which once adjusted for debt servicing and other factors would leave only $1.4 billion for possible dividends, exceeding its January interim payments, Malyshev said, adding the final decision on full-year 2023 dividends would be up to the board of directors.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova, Alexander Marrow and Polina Devitt; Editing by Jason Neely and Mark Potter)