The push echoes calls from the mining industry for clarity on how permits can be obtained for mines that produce copper, lithium and other energy transition minerals. Executives have long complained the US process can be complex, expensive and opaque due in part to a federal mining law enacted in 1872.

“Our message to the Biden administration is, ‘Do everything you can to do everything here in America. Get your permitting processes streamlined,'” Dunleavy told Reuters on the sidelines of the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston.

It is “somewhat nonsensical,” the governor said, that Biden has pushed for greater adoption of electric vehicles – which require far more critical minerals to build than internal combustion engines – but has blocked Northern Dynasty’s Pebble copper and gold mining project.

“If we don’t get our permitting processes together, if we don’t start to use data and science again instead of emotion, this chaos is going to continue,” he said.

Dunleavy sued Biden last week for the president’s 2023 decision to block Pebble. The suit seeks more than $700 billion, an amount that the governor says the state will lose in economic development without the mine. Dunleavy tried unsuccessfully last year to have the US Supreme Court overturn Biden.

Vancouver-based Northern Dynasty itself sued Biden on Monday.

The proposed Pebble mine would have “unacceptable and adverse effects on certain salmon fishery areas” in Alaska’s Bristol Bay, the US Environmental Protection Agency said last year.

Dunleavy said he believes the mine and the state’s salmon fishers can co-exist.

“The science is there to be able to develop the mine responsibly,” he said. “We can put the safeguards in, and that’s why I’m a supporter.”

Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan, Alaska’s two Republican US Senators, oppose Pebble, which Dunleavy acknowledged is a hindrance.

“However, my job as the governor is to advocate for our state, advocate for the development of our state lands or minerals, and advocate for the prosperity of our people,” he said.

Ambler road

Dunleavy, who has endorsed his fellow Republican Donald Trump against Democrat Biden in the 2024 US presidential election, is also pushing Biden to approve the construction of an access road to the prospective Ambler mining district in northern Alaska.

The Ambler project seeks to open a remote area rich in copper, zinc and lead and could yield deposits of rare earths used in weapons manufacturing. Trilogy Metals is one of the region’s potential developers.

“I hope it’s approved this year. But if it’s a post-election decision and there’s a new administration, I hope it’s approved immediately,” Dunleavy said.

(By Ernest Scheyder; Editing by David Gregorio)

The miner said on Tuesday it had inked signed definitive agreements with a group of international lenders, including the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, Export Development Canada, the Export-Import Bank of Korea and several commercial lenders for the term loan. The financing has a four-year drawdown period and a 12-year term, Antofagasta said.

“The Centinela Second Concentrator project is a prime example of how Antofagasta can unlock value from its portfolio and our dedication to sustainable and responsible copper production,” chief executive Ivan Arriaga said in the statement.

The company has also signed a separate agreement granting Centinela the option to obtain water for its current and future operations from an international consortium. This group would acquire Centinela’s existing water supply system and extend it to serve the second concentrator. The international consortium is in the process of finalizing its financing to fulfill this agreement within the year.

As part of this deal, Centinela will transfer its current water transportation assets and rights for about $600 million to be received in 2024. The consortium will handle the construction and related capital expenses amounting to $380 million for the planned expansion of the water transportation system.

The $4.4 billion second concentrator at Centinela, whose construction was approved in December 2023, is expected to start operations in 2027.

The developer on Friday filed a lawsuit in federal court in Anchorage challenging the EPA’s 2023 final determination prohibiting the discharge of mining waste in the state’s Bristol Bay over concerns the materials would degrade the watershed and harm important fishing ecosystems.

Northern Dynasty said the determination made under the Clean Water Act was arbitrary and capricious in violation of federal administrative law, because it failed to adequately consider the economic impact of the decision and used a “wild overestimate” of what protected waterways would be impacted by mining activity.

Northern Dynasty claims it has spent at least $1 billion over two decades in its efforts to develop the project, which was effectively killed by the decision, including $200 million on environmental studies.

“This is just another example of gross EPA overreach of the powers granted to it by Congress,” said Ron Thiessen, Northern Dynasty’s president and CEO, in a statement.

The EPA didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on Monday.

The Bristol Bay watershed in southwestern Alaska supports the world’s largest sockeye salmon fishery and is known for its large mineral resources. The watershed also provides habitats for 29 species of fish, more than 190 birds and dozens of mammals, according to the EPA.

The proposed mine, which has languished in a lengthy approval and permitting process for decades but has not started construction, would tap one of the world’s largest copper and gold deposits.

The EPA claims it would permanently destroy over 2,000 acres of wetlands protected by the Clean Water Act.

The developer also filed a lawsuit against the US government on Thursday alleging the veto amounted to an unconstitutional taking of its property in violation of the US Constitution’s 5th Amendment, which says that private property can’t be taken for public use without compensation, in the US Court of Federal Claims in Washington, DC.

The state of Alaska also sued the US government in that court last week seeking $700 billion over the decision, arguing the EPA’s veto infringed on the state’s sovereignty and would deprive it of funds from taxes, licensing fees and royalties it would have received from the mine.

The state had already challenged the EPA’s decision last year directly with the Supreme Court, arguing it violated the state’s sovereign right to regulate its land and waters, as well as a 1976 land swap with the US government that gave the state ownership over the area in question.

The Supreme Court declined to take that case in January, but did not say why.

The developer’s new lawsuit in Alaska makes similar claims, arguing the Clean Water Act does not give the EPA authority to override the state’s preferences for using the lands for extracting valuable minerals.

The EPA had previously argued in a brief submitted to the Supreme Court that Alaska’s statehood and the land swap do not preclude the agency from evaluating projects to ensure they comply with environmental law.

The case is Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd v. US Environmental Protection Agency, US District Court for the District of Alaska, No. 3:24-cv-00059.

For Northern Dynasty Minerals: Keith Bradley and Jeffrey Walker of Squire Patton Boggs

For the EPA: Not yet available

(By Clark Mindock)

The first, and main focus of Northern Dynasty’s legal actions, was filed with Alaska’s federal district court, seeking to vacate the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) veto of a development at Pebble.

The proposed mine would have become the largest copper, gold and molybdenum extraction site in North America. However, for the better part of two decades, the project was met with strong resistance due to its potential environmental impact. The Bristol Bay area, where the mine would be located, is home to the world’s largest sockeye salmon fisheries.

In January 2023, the EPA made its decision to block Northern Dynasty’s US-based subsidiary from storing mine waste in the Bristol Bay watershed, essentially killing the project.

In its complaint, the company alleges that the EPA veto was issued in violation of various federal statutes regarding Alaska’s statehood rights and a land exchange approved by Congress.

Specifically, it claims that the veto decision was based on an “overly broad legal interpretation” of EPA’s jurisdiction, which has since been overruled by the Supreme Court, its geographic scope exceeds that allowed by the statute, and it was based on information previously developed by EPA in what it calls “an illegal pre-emptive veto process” that was designed to reach a predetermined result.

The company also says the factual basis stated to support the veto is directly contradicted by the July 2020 environmental impact statement published by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), which is an important part of the administrative record.

“The EPA has not demonstrated that either the development of the Pebble deposit will have unacceptable adverse effects under Section 404(c), or that there are any impacts to Bristol Bay fisheries that would justify the extreme measures in the final determination (veto),” Northern Dynasty said in a news release.

“Whatever authority the EPA may have under section 404(c), the general provision in the Clean Water Act cannot authorize the EPA to take action to block the specific economic activity that was Congress’s express purpose for granting these lands to the State of Alaska under the Cook Inlet Land Exchange,” Northern Dynasty CEO Ron Thiessen said.

The other legal action was filed with the US Court of Federal Claims in Washington, DC, claiming that the actions by the EPA represent an unconstitutional “taking” of Northern Dynasty’s property. To that extent, the company is asking the court to defer considering this action until the above-mentioned EPA veto case is resolved.

“Our permitting strategy is focused entirely on winning the EPA veto case and permitting the Pebble project. We have filed a takings case against the federal government to preserve our ability to seek compensation for a violation of our rights in line with the protections under the Fifth Amendment,” the company said.

Still, according to Thiessen, the company’s priority is to advance the district federal court complaint, because “overturning the illegal veto removes a major impediment from the path of getting the permit to build the proposed mine.”

Over an estimated 20-year mine life, Pebble is expected to churn out 6.4 billion lb. of copper; 7.4 million oz. of gold and 300 million lb. of molybdenum, plus 37 million oz. of silver and 200,000 kg of rhenium.

Northern Dynasty’s shares rose by 1.1% to C$0.44 by 10:45 a.m. ET, trading between a 52-week range of C$0.28-C$0.58. The company has a market capitalization of C$239.6 million ($177.3m).

The project is located in northwest British Columbia about 60 km south of Telegraph Creek and near an existing seaport. The study is due by the end of 2024 or early 2025.

Planned expenditures at Schaft Creek this year are C$18.7 million, which will be fully funded by Teck. Metallurgical tests will be concluded, and drilling will be carried out in the high wall, tailings storage facility and the rock storage facility.

Engineering studies of those sites and proposed infrastructure will be done, and the road alignment and the construction timeline will be updated. Updates to the resource, geologic, structural and slope stability models will also be made. The environmental baseline data collection begun last year will continue with the collaboration of the Tahltan Nation.

A preliminary economic assessment (PEA) was done for Schaft Creek in 2021. At that time, a pre-tax net present value with an 8% discount was $1.4 billion and the internal rate of return was 15.2%. The after-tax NPV8% was $841.1 million and IRR was 12.9%.

Over a 21-year mine life, 5 billion lb. of copper, 3.7 million oz. of gold, 226 million lb. of molybdenum and 16.4 million oz. of silver in concentrate will be produced.

The initial capex was given as $2.65 billion, and the sustaining costs were $848.7 million, including closure costs of $154 million. All-in sustaining costs were estimated at $1.18/lb. payable copper.

Also in 2021, the resource estimate was upgraded to 1.3 billion tonnes grading 0.26% copper, 0.16 g/t gold, 0.017% molybdenum and 1.25 g/t silver in the measured and indicated category. The M+I resource contains 7.77 billion lb. of copper, 1.18 million oz. gold, 511 million lb. molybdenum and 9.3 million oz. silver.

There is also an inferred reserve of 344 million tonnes grading 0.17% copper, 0.11 g/t gold, 0.013% molybdenum and 0.84 g/t silver.

Diamond drillhole EFO7D cut 34 metres grading 0.5 gram PGE including 10 metres at 1.2 grams PGE per tonne, 0.2% nickel and 891 parts per million copper from 388 metres down-hole, the company said on Monday. The PGE component includes 10 metres at 0.89 gram palladium, 0.19 gram platinum and 0.1 gram gold, it said.

“The key driver of this discovery is the implementation of artificial intelligence through our alliance partner Earth AI,” Legacy Minerals CEO and managing director Christopher Byrne said in a release. “This is the first confirmed discovery of magmatic-related nickel-copper sulphide mineralization in the 700 km long ultramafic belt that hosts the Fontenoy project.”

Explorers and miners are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence to process big loads of data, streamline operations for increased productivity and spot opportunities to innovate and lower costs. Proponents predict AI will be indispensable to help the industry ramp up the supply of battery metals for the global energy transition to fight climate change. Electric vehicles, for example, need roughly four times as much copper as traditional automobiles.

Faster, cheaper

San Francisco-based Earth AI says it has made mineral deposit discoveries in two out of three tries compared with an industry average of 0.5%. Its predictive technology, trained on remote sensing, geophysical and exploration data, spots nickel, copper, zinc and vanadium prospects more than 100 times faster and cost-effectively than traditional methods, the company says.

“Our AI for mineral discovery is key to the diversification of the global critical metals supply chains by finding maiden deposits in unexplored areas at a fraction of the usual cost,” Earth AI CEO and founder Roman Teslyuk said in a release. “The discovery in Fontenoy, the second for us after the recent discovery of a greenfield molybdenum deposit, confirms that the future of mining lies in our technology.”

The Fontenoy discovery cost A$500,000 in exploration, Earth AI figures. That is 200 times less than the A$100 million spent by KoBold Metals. It’s a start-up also using AI backed by a coalition of billionaires including Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, which is exploring in Zambia, Quebec and Australia, where it signed a deal with BHP (NYSE: BHP; LSE: BHP; ASX: BHP).

Shares in Legacy Minerals closed A$0.01 higher at A$0.14 apiece on Monday in Sydney, valuing the company at A$14.8 million. They’ve traded in a 52-week range of A$0.11 to A$0.21.

Massive sulphides

The Fontenoy project contains disseminated and veined copper-gold mineralization over a strike length of 8 km, Legacy says. It is interpreted to represent McPhillamys-style volcanogenic hosted massive sulphide mineralization.

A nickel-copper-PGE surface anomalism found south of the discovery intercept is now a priority area for follow up, Legacy said. There’s an opportunity to follow up with electrical geophysics for future drill targeting. Diamond drill planning is underway, it said.

Earth AI, which has an in-house drilling unit, completed three diamond-cored holes for a total 1,633.7 metres at the site about 150 km northwest of Canberra. Fontenoy was historically drilled by companies searching for shallow nickel-laterite deposits but not PGE or magmatic-related nickel-copper sulphide mineralization.

The AI explorer didn’t drill survey holes, but used predictive software to lower costs and speed the search process. It then sampled two-metre areas where sulphides had been logged and sent 283.8 metres for analysis, the company said.

“Mining with the help of AI has recently been at the top of the news, but it is precisely this discovery that is important for the market,” Earth AI said. “Previously, Earth AI discovered a greenfield molybdenum deposit in Australia in a region eight other companies explored and came up with nothing.”

If a screenwriter were writing a new film with an anti-environment villain, one of the easiest ways to establish the moral bankruptcy of the antagonist would be to make the character a corporate industrialist hell-bent on mining the deep ocean.

The average audience, after all, does not require even a single frame of film to imagine that deep sea mining might involve any number of ecological horrors. Most opponents of deep sea mining lean into such favorable preconceptions, vividly characterizing deep sea mining as a catastrophic act of ocean ecosystem vandalism, which any responsible citizen ought to categorically oppose with do-or-die fervor.

Thus it may come as a surprise that none other than James Cameron, passionate deep ocean explorer and director of the ocean-themed “Avatar: The Way of Water,” recently expressed feeling open-minded toward deep-sea mining as a “less wrong” alternative to conventional land-based mining.

A challenge is that seafloor mining immediately starts off at a reputational disadvantage, a product of what Cameron calls society’s “weird habit of blowing the wrong thing out of proportion.” This instinctive reaction leads many to overlook the potential for deep sea mining to offer a more just, lower-impact, and lower-carbon way to mine metals than conventional terrestrial mining – a proposition that evidence so far seems to suggest has real promise.

As an oceanographer by training, I endorse Cameron’s suggestion, as heretical as that may seem. Collecting metals from the seabed may well be a “more right” way for humanity to source some of its needs for new metals.

This opportunity to pioneer a new dramatically lower-impact form of mining highlights how important it is for environmentalists and ocean scientists to critically reexamine the automatic instinct to oppose any further alteration of our seas. In the face of forces like climate change and far more extensive human activities that have and will continue to keep changing the oceans, such aspirations are already futile.

Equally futile are superficial attempts to reject new mining both on land and at sea with impossible recycling math, thereby avoiding having to wrestle with the energy transition’s implacable trade-offs. With these factors in mind, it is well worth asking whether we ought to continue concentrating the impact of our metals production on land in service of a shining ideal of ocean conservation that is already unattainable.

What is deep sea mining, really?

While some have speculated about mining other potential ocean-based resources for many decades, collecting seafloor nodules is closest to commercial operations and at the focus of most of the ongoing debate. Other marine resources remain far more speculative, and would be subject to their own unique environmental assessments and regulatory restrictions. Indeed, no commercial-scale harvesting of seafloor metals has occurred yet, as governments and industry await the finalization of international regulations and environmental standards.

In certain regions of the abyssal seafloor between 3.5 and 6 kilometers in depth, natural chemical processes have formed vast fields of potato-sized concretions rich in manganese, nickel, copper, and cobalt. As coincidence would have it, manganese, nickel, and cobalt are the exact metals used to manufacture the nickel-manganese-cobalt lithium-ion battery packs found in many electric vehicle batteries and other electronic devices.

Nickel and manganese are also used extensively in many standard steel and aluminum alloys as well as in other clean energy technologies like hydrogen electrolysis cells, while copper is a crucial component for countless power grid infrastructure elements. Finally, supply chains for these metals exhibit a concerning degree of overconcentration, with around 70% of cobalt and nickel processing and 44% of copper refining currently based in China. Consequently, deep-sea nodules pose implications for the metal requirements of not just electric car batteries, but for the clean energy transition as a whole.

Prospectors propose using remotely-operated robots to simply vacuum up these nodules and pump them to motherships at the ocean’s surface. In contrast, mining these same metals on land would typically require clear-cutting forest and vegetation, then blasting and digging surface excavations or deep mine shafts to extract buried ore, exhuming the soil layer and many layers of rock in the process.

No form of mining is without environmental impacts, and the same is certainly true for seafloor nodule collection. Most of the robotic collector vehicles currently in testing use hydraulic jets to dislodge the nodules, sucking up the metal-rich rocks along with the top 5-10 centimeters of sediment. This will likely kill the majority of bottom-dwelling organisms caught in the collector’s path. The sediment ingested by the collector vehicle is subsequently ejected, creating a plume near the seafloor in the vehicle’s wake that could harm or bury seafloor life.

While being transported to the mothership at the ocean’s surface via pipe, the nodules may rattle within the pipe, generating loud underwater noise. Finally, return water and sediment carried to the mothership through these pipes must be brought back to the ocean floor which may affect local carbon and nutrient cycling and generate a relatively dilute, light sediment plume.

Let there be no doubt that harvesting deep-sea nodules would deteriorate local seafloor ecosystems to some extent. But the direct and more long-lasting seabed disturbance is limited to the path of the collector vehicles. The effects of the sediment plume near the seafloor depend on how much the sediment cloud rises and travels horizontally, and how much plumes affect bottom-dwelling organisms. The impact of noise from piping nodules to the surface depends on the equipment used and the sensitivity of nearby animals to that noise. Furthermore, impacts like noise and ejected sediment could cease immediately should mining companies pause or end operations.

Meanwhile, the one-third of Earth’s surface covered by land contains all of our paved concrete cities, all of our land-based mines, and all of our vast expanses of cropland and livestock pasture. To date, the burden of nearly the entirety of society’s current and historic demand for metals has fallen upon this minority of the planet’s surface area that we happen to live in closest proximity to. Nor should we forget that society also already carries out numerous ocean-based economic activities—fishing and whaling, marine shipping, the dredging of shipping channels, sand harvesting, offshore oil and gas drilling, and the construction of offshore wind turbines, undersea pipelines, and cable networks. Many of these operations produce similar impacts in terms of noise and local seafloor disturbance.

Sourcing metals from nodules could be preferable to conventional mining on land from a human perspective as well. Extracting metals from remote locations at sea that are literally uninhabitable may avoid many of the risks to human communities and sociopolitical conflicts that terrestrial mining can pose. The production of metals from nodules would also rely primarily on skilled labor in sectors with traditionally strong union representation like shorefront workers and metalworkers, avoiding risks like mine worker exploitation and poor safety standards that confront many global mineral supply chains today.

Humanity may also share the benefits of deep sea metals more broadly than has historically been the case in mining. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) tasks the International Seabed Authority (ISA) with not only regulating seabed economic activities, but with collecting royalties on mining and redistributing them as benefits to countries globally, prioritizing developing countries in particular. The claims-based nature of seabed exploration under the ISA has also encouraged companies to partner with sponsor nations including small island developing states with few other economic opportunities that could themselves benefit from revenue and administrative fees associated with such agreements. As such, one wonders whether seafloor nodules might offer not just technical and environmental advantages relative to traditional mining, but also produce better social outcomes as well.

An incoherent debate

Ultimately, it is critical to distinguish between accurate claims about deep sea nodule collection and misleading assertions without basis.

Seafloor mining opponents claim nodule collection will pose an existential threat to marine life, driving rare seafloor species to extinction, or threatening fisheries at the scale of entire ocean basins. Activists have lobbied governments and potential industry customers like automakers to support moratoria on deep-sea mining, arguing that nodule collection is too dangerous to allow or consider—at least until scientists learn more about the risks.

But opponents of nodule collection are engaging in exaggeration, cherry-picking, and misleading messaging that clearly call into question their rhetorical commitments to let the science speak. Cases abound where activists have cited scientific research to claim catastrophic impacts of nodule harvesting that far exceed the actual findings in question.

For example, recent Greenpeace campaigns have widely smeared polymetallic nodules as “radioactive” and potentially harmful to workers, a claim that some reporting has uncritically repeated. Yet the actual scientific study that activists are citing concludes that nodules emit low amounts of relatively harmless alpha radiation, which cannot even penetrate human skin, and proposes that simply requiring workers to wear an N95 mask would provide effective protection.

Or there’s the case of exaggerated claims about the future of tuna. A recent study examining the overlap between Pacific tuna population patterns and the nodule-rich seafloor areas has motivated activists, journalists, and fishing industry representatives to label nodule collection as a threat to Pacific tuna on an ocean-wide scale. But it once again appears that nobody has read the underlying paper. The study only investigated the potential for tuna populations to migrate into one nodule-containing seafloor region in response to future climate change, and did not directly study the influence of nodule harvesting operations on tuna. This is a clear case of activists and reporters spawning scientific conclusions from their imagination to fit a desired narrative.

A broader look at activist campaigns against seafloor nodule collection suggests that opponents simply aren’t interested in scientific impact assessments to begin with. Anti-mining advocates represent environmental risks from nodule harvesting as though they are inherent and fundamental, ignoring the potential for regulations or technology to reduce impacts.

Scientific findings with any industry connection are dismissed on principle rather than refuted on their research methods or merits. Direct action activists call for decade-long bans on nodule exploration until scientific understanding improves, while obstructing small-scale expeditions intended to conduct some of that very science. And empty lip service in more formal proceedings notwithstanding, opponents’ public messaging remains noticeably disinterested in advancing any solutions to the risks they loudly emphasize.

On the other hand, it is true that deep sea nodules are not, strictly speaking, absolutely necessary for the energy transition. The quantities of metals required to manufacture electric vehicles at global scale over the next few decades would not come close to exhausting either land-based or seafloor nodule deposits.

As Table 1 shows, humanity could—without so much as touching deep-sea metals—produce nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) batteries for between 1.5 to 5 billion electric vehicles before encountering cobalt supply limitations. More importantly, with a rapidly-growing share of electric vehicles utilizing lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries that do not consume cobalt, nickel, or manganese, it appears increasingly likely that the future global electric vehicle fleet may not require as much of these three metals.

In pure quantitative resource terms, deep-sea metals are thus optional for net-zero pathways. But given how society is presently grappling with how to best expand and diversify battery metal production today, the insistence that ocean resources are off-limits risks ruling out a promising approach for accomplishing this more efficiently and sustainably.

In response, activists challenge the very idea that society requires any significant new mining at all, often by calling instead for improved recycling and a crusade against private automobile ownership. This car-hating recycling-based circular economy platform rather elegantly upholds traditional conservationist principles while dodging most acknowledgement that the global shift towards more sustainable societies might involve ecological tradeoffs. However, it is both incoherent and incorrect. Specific proposals for reducing car ownership are often unrealistically overoptimistic, while cold, hard math suggests that even a vastly smaller global car fleet would still require electric vehicle replacements on the order of at least several hundred million electric cars, relative to the 30 million or so that exist today. The quantitative case for new battery metal mining is unshakeable.

As such, climate hawks would do well to consider the environmental case for deep-sea metals. One particular advantage is adaptive management. Unlike a surface mine on land, where many significant ecological impacts occur all at once during the mine’s initial construction, the fingerprint of nodule collection on the seafloor is incremental with every unit of rocks collected.

If scientists conclude that it is important for collector vehicles to leave more nodules behind, operators can adjust accordingly even midway through harvesting an area. If regulators determine that underwater noise from nodule collection is more harmful than anticipated, they can require technology improvements that reduce impacts from that point forward. If collector vehicle technology improves in ways that further minimize environmental risks, regulators can compel all operators to adopt that technology.

At the most basic level, we can imagine forms of seafloor nodule collection that tread extremely lightly upon the seafloor. Regulators are working with scientists and aspiring operators to define initial precautionary thresholds for dissolved metals, noise, light, and turbidity that nodule collectors will in turn commit to meet. Across the conceivable spectrum of approaches one can envision robots that only disturb sediment to half the depth, that use dimmer onboard lights, or that eject sediment in a controlled manner to greatly reduce the size of the plume in their wake.

Advocacy by many opponents for seafloor mining bans that would foreclose any of these possibilities hints at a narrow-minded aversion that fixates more on the idea of collecting seabed metals than it does on the actual impacts.

Gatekeepers of the ocean

That ocean conservation activists and ocean researchers opposed to seafloor nodule collection should not be surprising. The average oceanographer chooses the field more out of a genuine love of the ocean and belief in the intrinsic value of oceanic knowledge, than out of any desire to invent world-changing technology or win a Nobel Prize. The same is true for many ocean advocates.

In such loving eyes, the ocean is at once pristine and untouchable, but also fragile and increasingly tainted. Yet such a worldview winds up paradoxically invoking humanity’s longstanding, deep interactions with the ocean to declare the oceans off-limits to new activities.

The idea that the ocean is better off the less humans interact with it too often neglects to consider how treating the seas as sacrosanct can itself come at societal and environmental costs. Fishing well in excess of fish population replenishment serves neither food security nor ocean life, but the seas can support even extensive fishing that spares large areas of land from farming.

Cargo ships and the concrete wharfs and dredged channels to support them impose harms on ecosystems, but enable global trade and link continents that would otherwise have to sustain themselves in isolation. Similarly, arguments opposing deep sea nodule harvesting cannot weigh only the costs or benefits to the ocean alone.

A common line of argument declares that humans clearly have not shown any ability to steward the environment on land, and therefore cannot by any means be trusted to extract resources from the ocean. But with nearly all human activities leaving some mark upon the land environment, would environmentalists ever really concede, at any point present or future, that humans have achieved sufficient redemption in their eyes to collect nodules at sea? Indeed environmentalists too often express similar fatalism towards seemingly any kind of human activity. Utopias do not exist, and demanding that humankind achieve utopia before attempting anything new is to effectively insist that society remain in an eternal purgatory of stasis.

The alternative, ecomodernist view is that sourcing metals from the ocean represents a part of the process itself of demonstrating better stewardship of our land ecosystems. The ocean certainly faces its share of problems, and turning to seabed nodules in order to reduce the known problem of mining impacts on land may create new problems—which humans can and will solve in turn. But humanity is already asking enough of the one-third of Earth’s land surface that it is well worth seeking an optimal balance by leveraging the watery two-thirds of the globe a little more. Arguments over the ecological diversity of seafloor nodule regions notwithstanding, it is patently obvious that the richness of biomass per unit area of land cleared for conventional mining is many orders of magnitude greater.

In the end, the better question to ask is not whether humanity should collect deep-sea metals, but rather how. Before claiming that the cost of collecting nodules from the ocean floor is too high, researchers, activists, regulators, and companies should explore the degree to which operators can reduce impacts and define what obligations to hold industry accountable to. As such, calling for immediate moratoriums on deep-sea mining is not only premature, but a circumvention of constructive dialogue and negotiation.

Much will depend on the final form of international seabed regulations, not to mention the formulation of promised mechanisms for collecting and distributing benefits globally from deep-sea activities in international territory. And given the precariousness of global supply chains for key metals, dragging such discussions out for many years would impose its own risks and costs.

But fundamentally, the debate over seabed mining would benefit from more open-minded curiosity and willingness to imagine the policy frameworks and technologies that could produce a new and better form of mining—one rooted from the very start in a more progressive vision of shared management of a global commons, for the collective benefit of all humanity.

(This article first appeared on the Breakthrough Institute)

China consumes more than half the world’s metals and an even greater proportion of iron ore and battery raw materials – and gloom about the country’s economic prospects amid a property and stock market crisis have only added to bearish mining sentiment. 

In a new trading desk note Marcus Garvey, head of Macquarie commodities strategy based in Singapore, and a team of analysts have identified the first green shoots for the sector (and 34 charts to back it up):   

“January’s full set of PMIs (World manufacturing new orders up 1.2pp to 49.8) looks like a potential turning point for the global industrial cycle, with bullish implications for industrial commodities demand.”

Expectations of a smaller reduction in US interest rates this year than previously anticipated have supported the dollar and put metal prices under pressure which usually move in the opposite direction. 

Nevertheless, says Macquarie: “Commodity prices have a far more consistent relationship with global growth than with FX.”

The investment bank also points to US goods demand which it says “increasingly looks to be reaccelerating,” and from a higher base. Macquarie also sees the potential of a developed market manufacturing recovery and a restocking cycle in Europe.”

And while China has so far held off on broad based economic stimulus, fixed asset investment in infrastructure, led by renewables, and certain sectors including autos (particularly electric cars) have shown notable strength.

“Ultimately, if commodity prices are lifted by a pick-up in global industrial production, the implications for goods inflation may become self-inhibiting, by reducing the scope for further central bank easing. 

“But that is an ex-post problem, not an ex-ante one, suggesting to us that dips should now be bought. 

“Selectively at least, in those markets where fundamentals are already relatively tight or have the potential to tighten quickly. Especially if positioning gets short.”

The indicated resources increased by 300,000 oz. of gold, 200 million lb. of copper, 3.5 million silver and 2 million lb. of molybdenum.

The estimate used the same metals prices as the 2022 Mitchell and East Mitchell open pit estimates ($1,820/oz. gold, $4.20/lb. copper, $28/oz. silver and $13.5/lb. molybdenum).

The Kerr and Iron Cap deposits will primarily be underground mines with block caving, although there is a portion of the Kerr deposit that can be mined by open pit methods.

The indicated resource at Kerr is 384.2 million tonnes grading 0.22 g/t gold, 0.41% copper, 1.2 g/t silver and 5 ppm molybdenum. The inferred resource is 2.59 billion tonnes at 0.27 g/t gold, 0.35% copper, 1.7 g/t silver and 21 ppm molybdenum.

The Iron Cap deposit contains 471 million indicated tonnes at 0.38 g/t gold, 0.21% copper, 4.3 g/t silver and 39 ppm molybdenum. The inferred portion is 2.31 billion tonnes at 0.41 g/t gold, 0.27% copper, 2.5 g/t silver and 31 ppm molybdenum.

Seabridge chair and CEO Rudi Fronk said the resource restatements reflect gains from a consistent application of metal price parameters. The company is seeking a joint venture partner for KSM, so it believes it makes sense to normalize the estimates across all deposits.

The company further noted that the increased mineral resources compared to the previous estimate would only be mined after the 33 years of mine life based on the open pit reserves. Any future cash flows resulting from these additional mineral resources is not considered material.

In the Mithell, East Mitchell and Sulphurets deposits, the proven and probable reserves are 2.29 billion tonnes grading 0.64 g/t gold, 0.14% copper, 2.2 g/t silver and 76 ppm molybdenum. The contained metal within the reserves is 47.3 million oz. of gold, 7.32 billion lb. of copper, 160 million oz. of silver and 385 million lb. of molybdenum.

Revenue for the major global copper producer, which also operates sprawling freight railroads in Mexico, slid nearly 10% to $3.42 billion, the company said in a statement.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) fell 27% to $1.52 billion.

Grupo Mexico, controlled by billionaire German Larrea, operates major copper and other base metal mines across its home country, as well as in the United States, Peru and Spain.

The firm produced 264,251 metric tons of copper over the quarter, down 2% from a year earlier as its sales slipped 8%. Grupo Mexico also pointed to declining zinc and molybdenum prices, while exploration costs increased.

Grupo Mexico expects to produce 1.058 million tons of copper in 2024, up from 1.03 million tons last year. Full-year 2023 copper production was up 2% year on year, falling short of its prior target of 1.05 million tons.

The firm also confirmed that its Buenavista zinc project in Mexico’s Sonora state should start operations in the first quarter of 2024, adding that the mine should produce some 54,000 tons of zinc and 11,000 tons of copper this year.

“Once we finish the full ramp-up, this will double our production capacity and we will generate over 2,000 jobs on the operating front at year-end,” Leonardo Contreras, the mining division’s finance chief, told analysts in a call.

Contreras added that the start-up had been delayed last year partly due to scant rainfall over northern Mexico.

Meanwhile, the group’s transport arm, which late last year bought majority stakes in two maritime-rail transport freight firms serving US-Mexico trade, saw quarterly sales rise 15%, helped by higher volumes, notably in the automotive sector.

The company said it expects to spend some $490.5 million this year on the division, which last month submitted a proposal at the request of Mexico’s government to adapt some of its freight rail routes for passenger travel.

Analysts at Banorte noted the “negative profitability surprise” weighing on the group’s share price, which was down over 2% in afternoon trading.

(By Sarah Morland, Valentine Hilaire, Noe Torres and Aida Pelaez-Fernandez; Editing by Deepa Babington and Mark Porter)

A new agreement announced Thursday gives the Nisga’a a majority stake in the newly formed Nations Royalty. Vega Mining will acquire from the Nisga’a the rights to five existing annual benefit payment entitlements with projects in the Golden Triangle, in exchange for common shares in Vega’s capital. The privately-owned Vega — about which little public information is available — will be renamed Nations Royalty Corp.

The Nisga’a’s current royalty portfolio includes Newmont’s (NYSE: NEM) Brucejack gold mine, Seabridge Gold’s (TSX: SEA; NYSE: SA) KSM copper-gold-silver-molybdenum project, Ascot Resources’ (TSX: AOT) Premier Gold project and Red Mountain deposit; and new Moly LLC’s Kitsault molybdenum project.

The company is speaking with other First Nations and Indigenous groups to encourage them to join Nations, for the aim of combining royalties from mining projects and welcoming external investors as shareholders.

“Our people have a history of leadership and innovation, from significant legal victories to the first modern treaty in British Columbia,” said Eva Clayton, president of Nisga’a Lisims government. “Today, we embark on this new venture with Indigenous groups and leaders from the mining industry to promote cooperation and progress, ushering in a new era in Indigenous business, as well as Canada’s mining and natural resources sector.”

The deal comes as First Nations increasingly seek to benefit from resource development across Canada, and especially in BC, where Indigenous peoples including the Tahltan Nation and Williams Lake First Nation have reached participation agreements in mining projects. It also marks a contrast with the approach of settling disputes between Indigenous land claims and mining interests through the court system.

As part of the deal, Vega will complete a private placement for just over 11 million subscription receipts of shares at C$0.90 apiece, to raise at least C$10 million. Existing Vega shareholders will hold about 15.9% of issued and outstanding shares, the Nisga’a will hold 76.5% and investors in the financing will get about 7.6%. No timeline was given for the deal’s closing.

Frank Giustra, mining financier and CEO of Fiore Group, and now strategic advisor to Nations, said he’s honoured to collaborate with the Nisga’a and other First Nations in establishing the company.

“Almost two decades ago, I played a role in developing the metals streaming concept as a co-founder of Wheaton Precious Metals and I see Nations Royalty as a vitally important successor to this concept,” he said. “A core focus of the company is to build capacity for Indigenous people in the management of public companies and capital markets, which we hope will result in the creation of additional Indigenous economic ventures.”

Northwest BC mining veteran and Nations co-founder Robert McLeod is expected to be appointed as interim CEO and president of the company, though the goal is to have it managed and run by Indigenous people. McLeod played a major role in forming Nations and in bringing the Nisga’a and Vega together.

In a paper published in the journal Applied Catalysis B: Environmental, the researchers note that the catalyst, synthesized using molybdenum and ruthenium, exhibits high activity, reaction rates, and durability, opening doors to the cost-effective and large-scale production of next-generation catalysts.

The team led by Young-Kyu Han and Jitendra N. Tiwari also pointed out that the reduction of water to molecular hydrogen via the splitting water reaction is a key method for chemical energy storage aimed at addressing global energy challenges. However, issues like low catalyst activity, slow reaction speed, and catalyst degradation have posed challenges so far.

This is why the new study involved implanting ruthenium oxide into a two-dimensional molybdenum carbide to create a catalyst (Mo₂TiC₂T_x MXene) with high mass activity, turnover frequency, and durability. Calculations also indicated that the ruthenium sites had a strong affinity towards oxygen species, which enhanced the reaction. 

Hydrogen and oxygen have diverse industrial applications, spanning clean fuel, power generation, chemical production, and life-support systems. They are also crucial in clean-energy transportation. However, more than 90% of hydrogen is in petroleum recovery and refining (47%) and ammonia production (45%).

“The need for decarbonizing the transportation sector makes hydrogen a promising alternative,” Tiwari, who is the lead author of the paper, said in a media statement. “Going ahead, fuel cell vehicles are expected to efficiently convert hydrogen into electrical energy, emitting only water, with longer driving ranges than battery electric vehicles. Additionally, hydrogen fuel cells do not need recharging and don’t degrade if hydrogen fuel is present, unlike in batteries.”

Tiwari pointed out that this study, thus, serves as a guide for researchers to create new catalysts for acidic water oxidation. It also sheds light on achieving cost-effective, large-scale catalyst production using diverse materials, such as dual-transition metal catalysts.

Zijin will purchase approximately 28.5 million shares of Solaris at a price of C$4.55 each, a 14% premium to the closing price at the end of day Jan. 10. Upon closing, Zijin will own about 15% of the Canadian company and will appoint a member of the board.

The Warintza property is located close to all infrastructure, including the hydroelectric power grid. The in-pit indicated resource is 379 million tonnes grading 0.47% copper, 0.03% molybdenum, and 0.05 g/t gold (0.59% copper equivalent). The indicated resource is 887 million tonnes at 0.39% copper, 0.01% molybdenum, and 0.04 g/t gold (0.47% copper equivalent).

Solaris has also outlined a high-grade starter pit at Warintza central of 180 million indicated tonnes grading 0.67% copper, 0.03% molybdenum, and 0.07 g/t gold (0.82% copper equivalent). There are also 107 million inferred tonnes at 0.64% copper, 0.02% molybdenum, and 0.05 g/t gold (0.73% copper equivalent.

The company says it plans to publish updated resource numbers by the middle of this year.

The Warintza deposit was discovered by David Lowell in 2000 but sat dormant for two decades due to a breakdown in social acceptance from local communities. In mid-2019, Solaris undertook extensive dialogue to understand the root causes of conflict and to resolve them. An impact and benefits agreement was signed in 2020 and updated in 2022.

Solaris Resources’ stock was up 4.2% midday Thursday in Toronto, capitalizing the company at C$625.1 million ($466.1m)

The rise was supported by a strong fourth quarter during which 34 million lb. of copper and 369,000 lb. of molybdenum were produced.

Stuart McDonald, president and CEO of Taseko, said, “The strong finish to 2023 is expected to continue in 2024 as the Gibraltar pit will remain the main source of ore for the first half of this year.”

Taseko holds an 87.5% interest in the Gibraltar mine and Cariboo Copper holds the balance. Taseko paid C$60 million a year ago to buy out Sojitz Corp.’s 50% interest in Cariboo.

Last November, Taseko secured a $100 million financing for its other key project, the Florence development in Arizona. The in-situ copper recovery project and solvent extraction/electrowinning plant should reach commercial production in less than two years.

There are currently 10 metal mines, seven steelmaking coal mines and two smelters operating in BC, which is regarded as a key global mining jurisdiction. BC is Canada’s leading producer of copper and steelmaking coal, second largest producer of silver, and only producer of molybdenum, MABC said.

The study by Mansfield Consulting examined 14 potential critical mineral mines and two mine extensions, and found the long-term economic impact of operating these mines over several decades could be nearly C$800 billion ($599bn).

While Canada is aiming to become a bigger player on the world stage in terms of critical minerals supply, the mining permitting process in British Columbia is known for its lengthy delays, and finding solutions are a priority, the provincial government has said.

The report showing the resource opportunities B.C. offers comes almost one year after the federal government announced a C$1.5-billion fund aimed at supporting critical minerals projects across Canada. It’s part of a larger set of initiatives targeting development of the minerals needed for the green energy transition, namely Ottawa’s C$3.8-billion Critical Minerals Strategy. 

“The realization of benefits from these critical mineral projects is dependent on BC having competitive fiscal and regulatory policies that will attract the investment necessary to grow and sustain the sector. The provincial government’s forthcoming critical minerals strategy is fundamental to these efforts,” MABC CEO Michael Goehring said in a statement on Monday.

“This is a generational opportunity which must be seized and could position BC as a leading global supplier of responsibly-produced critical minerals. We want to move forward with the Governments of Canada and British Columbia, First Nations, local governments, and labour, to unlock critical mineral developments for the benefit of all British Columbians,” Goehring said, adding that the proposed critical mineral projects create opportunities for First Nations partnerships to advance economic reconciliation and self determination.

The study also assessed the economic benefits of advancing five proposed precious metal mines, including gold. The long-term combined impact of the proposed precious metals mines over their lifespan exceeds C$29.5 billion, creating over 96,000 person-years of employment and generating C$5.3 billion in tax revenue.

Seabridge Gold’s Kerr-Sulphurets Mitchell (KSM) project in British Columbia’s famed Golden Triangle is the world’s top-ranked gold project, but the last new gold mine – the Brucejack, one of the highest grade gold mines in the world– went into production seven years ago.

“With the right government policy, these critical and precious mineral projects would further advance the mining and smelting sector’s foundational role in BC’s economy which includes well-paid family-supporting jobs and opportunities for service and supply businesses in both rural and urban communities,” Goehring said.

The proposed mine in the Bristol Bay area, which would have become the largest copper, gold and molybdenum extraction site in North America, has met with nearly two decades of resistance for its potential impact on nature and the communities that depend on them.

In January 2023, the EPA sided with the opposition groups by blocking Northern Dynasty Minerals (TSX: NDM; NYSE: NAK), the project owner, from storing mine waste in the Bristol Bay watershed, home to the world’s largest sockeye salmon fisheries.

Alaskan lawmakers in support of the project filed in July a motion asking the Supreme Court to overturn the EPA decision, arguing that the nation’s highest court had the authority to hear their case before lower courts reviewed the matter.

In a more typical legal process, the state must start with a lower court and then appeal any unfavorable decisions with the Supreme Court.

“Alaska tried to persuade the court that this is the rare kind of dispute that the justices should hear as a trial court, without having it go through lower courts first,” Steve Vladeck, Supreme Court analyst and professor at the University of Texas School of Law, told CNN.

“Although there’s no explanation accompanying today’s denial, it stands to reason that a majority of the justices disagreed and were willing to let the case go through ordinary litigation in the lower courts first,” he said in the CNN interview.

Northern Dynasty has also not given up and has considered legal options to challenge the EPA. “The proposed mine for the Pebble project would provide good-paying, year-round employment for thousands of Alaskans, something desperately needed in southwest Alaska,” the company has said.

“While it is a disappointing decision, it is important to note that this is not a comment on the arguments put forward by the state. We have long stated our belief that the EPA has acted outside of its regulatory authority and that remains our position today,” Northern Dynasty said in a statement on Monday.

Over a 20-year mine life, the Pebble mine is expected to churn out 6.4 billion lb. of copper; 7.4 million oz. of gold, 300 million lb. of molybdenum; 37 million oz. of silver and 200,000 kg of rhenium. It has a post-tax net present value (NPV) of more than $2 billion (at 7% discount rate) with an internal rate of return (IRR) of roughly 15%.

Northern Dynasty’s stock plunged 26.9% by 1:45 p.m. ET on the latest development. The Vancouver-based miner has a market capitalization of C$204.9 million ($153 million).

AbraSilver Resource (TSXV: ABRA) announced Tuesday it has entered an option and joint venture agreement to explore and develop its La Coipita copper-gold project in San Juan, Argentina, with a subsidiary of Canadian miner Teck Resources.

La Coipita is a district-scale property consisting of over 70,000 hectares in the western portion of Calingasta department, adjacent to the Chilean border. The project is located approximately 16 km north of the Los Azules deposit developed by McEwen Mining and 90 km from Los Pelambres, 60% owned by Antofagasta in Chile.

Initial drilling at La Coipita in the summer of 2022 encountered a continuous copper-gold porphyry zone of 226 metres grading 0.43% copper equivalent. Drilling in 2023 focused on the Yaretas target, with one hole returning a broad interval of 694.3 metres grading 0.16% copper and 81 ppm molybdenum.

“We are delighted about the opportunity to secure a significant exploration agreement with Teck to advance the large-scale La Coipita project, which is located in a prolific copper porphyry district. This strategic collaboration will mark a significant milestone for the project, and greatly enhance the potential for a major copper discovery,” AbraSilver CEO John Miniotis said in a news release.

The option agreement stipulates that Teck will have the option to acquire an 80% interest in La Coipita by funding cumulative exploration expenditures of $20 million over a five-year period. Other financial commitments include staged cash payments to, and an equity placement in, AbraSilver totalling $3 million (including an initial payment of $500,000), and up to $6.3 million in optional cash payments to the underlying project vendors.

Following an initial transition period during which AbraSilver will support field operations, Teck will act as operator of La Coipita throughout the option period. Upon exercise of the option, the companies will form am 80/20 joint venture, and each party will fund its pro-rata share of future expenditures on the project.

La Coipita is one of several projects being advanced by AbraSilver throughout Argentina. Its main asset is the 100%-owned Diablillos silver-gold project in Salta province, which has a measured and indicated resource of 53.3 million tonnes grading 87 g/t silver and 0.79 g/t gold containing approximately 148 million oz. of silver and 1.4 million oz. of gold.

As consideration, Surge will issue approximately 21.22 million common shares (valued at $0.08 each at the time of announcement), resulting in TCM owning approximately 15% of the company’s outstanding share capital.

The purchase agreement replaces the December 2020 option agreement that allowed Surge to earn a 70% interest in the Berg project by spending C$8 million over five years and issuing C$5 million worth of common shares to TCM.

“We are very pleased to be consolidating a 100% interest in the Berg property, which firmly establishes our ownership position in the broader Berg-Huckleberry-Ootsa district, results in a more simplified ownership structure for all parties, and provides Surge with significantly more flexibility in future financing choices to advance its assets,” Surge CEO Leif Nilsson stated in a news release.

The Berg property comprises nearly 350 sq. km. of land and is adjacent to Surge’s remaining mineral claims in BC. Hosted within the property is the Berg porphyry deposit, for which Surge has published an NI 43-101-compliant preliminary economic assessment (PEA) and an accompanying mineral resource estimate.

The PEA outlined a large-scale, stand-alone greenfield development project with a simple design and high outputs of critical minerals, producing approximately 5.8 billion lb. of copper equivalent (including 3.7 billion lb. of copper) over a 30-year mine life.

Using long-term commodity price assumptions of $4.00/lb. copper, $15.00/lb. molybdenum, $23/oz. silver and $1,800/oz. gold, the after-tax net present value (at an 8% discount) is estimated at C$2.1 billion with an internal rate of return of 20%.

The PEA calculations are based on an updated measured and indicated resource of 1.0 billion tonnes grading 0.23% copper, 0.03% molybdenum, 4.6 g/t silver, and 0.02 g/t gold, containing 5.1 billion lb. of copper, 633 million lb. of molybdenum, 150 million oz. of silver, and 744,000 oz. of gold.

In addition to the Berg property, Surge also holds 100% of the advanced-stage Ootsa project containing the East Seel, West Seel and Ox porphyry deposits located adjacent to the open pit Huckleberry copper mine, which is owned by Imperial Metals.

A year where the gold price sets an all-time record should be unalloyed good news for the mining and exploration industry, which despite all the buzz surrounding battery metals and the energy transition still represents the backbone of the junior market.

Metal and mineral markets are volatile at the best of times – the nickel, cobalt and lithium price collapse in 2023 was extreme but not entirely unprecedented. Rare earth producers, platinum group metal watchers, iron ore followers, and gold and silver bugs for that matter, have been through worse.

Mining companies have become better at navigating choppy waters, but the forced closure of one of the biggest copper mines to come into production in recent decades served as a stark reminder of the outsized risks miners face over and above market swings.

Panama shuts down giant copper mine

After months of protests and political pressure, at the end of November the Panama government ordered the closure of First Quantum Minerals’ Cobre Panama mine following a ruling by the Supreme Court that declared the mining contract for the operation unconstitutional.

Public figures including climate activist Greta Thunberg and Hollywood actor Leonardo Di Caprio backed the protests and shared a video calling for the “mega mine” to cease operations, which quickly went viral. 

FQM’s latest statement on Friday said Panama’s government hasn’t provided a legal basis to the Vancouver-based company for pursuing the closure plan, a plan that the industries ministry of the central American nation said will only be presented in June next year.

FQM has filed two notices of arbitration over the closure of the mine, which has not been operating since protesters blocked access to its shipping port in October. However, arbitration would not be the company’s preferred outcome, said CEO Tristan Pascall.

In the aftermath of the unrest, FQM has said it should have better communicated the value of the $10 billion mine to the wider public, and will now spend more time engaging with Panamanians ahead of a national election next year. FQM shares have bounced in the past week, but is still trading more than 50% below the high hit during July this year.

Projected copper deficit evaporates

Cobre Panama’s shutdown and unexpected operational disruptions forcing copper mining companies to slash output has seen the sudden removal of around 600,000 tons of expected supply would, moving the market from a large expected surplus into balance, or even a deficit.

The next couple of years were supposed to be a time of plenty for copper, thanks to a series of big new projects starting up around the world.

The expectation across most of the industry was for a comfortable surplus before the market tightens again later this decade when surging demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure is expected to collide with a lack of new mines.

Instead, the mining industry has highlighted how vulnerable supply can be — whether due to political and social opposition, the difficulty of developing new operations, or simply the day-to-day challenge of pulling rocks up from deep beneath the earth.

Lithium price routed on supply surge

The price of lithium was decimated in 2023, but predictions for next year are far from rosy. Lithium demand from electric vehicles is still growing rapidly, but the supply response has overwhelmed the market.

Global lithium supply, meanwhile, will jump by 40% in 2024, UBS said earlier this month, to more than 1.4 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent.

Output in top producers Australia and Latin America will rise 22% and 29% respectively, while that in Africa is expected to double, driven by projects in Zimbabwe, the bank said.

Chinese production will also jump 40% in the next two years, said UBS, driven by a major CATL project in southern Jiangxi province.

The investment bank expects Chinese lithium carbonate prices could fall by more than 30% next year, dipping as low as 80,000 yuan ($14,800) per tonne in 2024, averaging at around 100,000 yuan, equivalent to production costs in Jiangxi, China’s biggest producing region of the chemical.

Lithium assets still in high demand

In October, Albemarle Corp. walked away from its $4.2 billion takeover of Liontown Resources Ltd., after Australia’s richest woman built up a blocking minority and effectively scuppered one of the largest battery-metals deals to date.

Eager to add new supply, Albemarle had pursued its Perth-based target for months, eying its Kathleen Valley project — one of Australia’s most promising deposits. Liontown agreed to the US company’s “best and final” offer of A$3 a share in September — a near 100% premium to the price before Albemarle’s takeover interest was made public in March.

Albemarle had to contend with the arrival of combative mining tycoon Gina Rinehart, as her Hancock Prospecting steadily built up a 19.9% stake in Liontown. Last week, she became the single largest investor, with enough clout to potentially block a shareholder vote on the deal.

In December, SQM teamed up with Hancock Prospecting to make a sweetened A$1.7 billion ($1.14 billion) bid for Australian lithium developer Azure Minerals, the three parties said on Tuesday.

The deal would give the world’s no.2 lithium producer SQM a foothold in Australia with a stake in Azure’s Andover project and a partnership with Hancock, which has rail infrastructure and local experience in developing mines.

Chile, Mexico take control of lithium

This week Chile’s President Gabriel Boric hailed the formation of a new government-controlled lithium partnership that fuses assets of state-run Codelco with private miner SQM, as the leftist leader advances his push for greater public control over the battery metal. 

SQM said it would partner with copper giant Codelco for the future development and production of the metal in the Atacama salt flat, in a tie-up set to kick off in 2025 and run through 2060.

The deal gives Codelco majority control in line with the president’s plans announced in April to strengthen state control of lithium to generate more broad-based benefits from surging demand and to allow only public-private partnerships to participate in its exploitation.

For much of the year, the firms had been locked in talks over the future of lithium mining and production in the salt flat, located in Chile’s north and the home to 90% of the nation’s lithium reserves. The South American country has the world’s largest proven lithium reserves.

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in February signed a decree handing over responsibility for lithium reserves to the energy ministry.

Lopez Obrador urged the private sector to work with the new state miner, saying the size of the investment needed means the government needs partners.

But analysts argue that companies are more likely to focus near-term investments in Chile or Argentina’s sprawling salt flats, where industries are more established and policies more market-friendly.

In August, Chinese lithium giant Ganfeng said Mexico’s mining authorities had issued a notice to its local subsidiaries indicating nine of its concessions had been terminated.

Gold to build on record-setting year

The New York futures price of gold set an all-time high at the beginning of December and looks set to surpass the peak going into the new year. 

London’s gold price benchmark hit an all-time high of $2,069.40 per troy ounce at an afternoon auction on Wednesday, surpassing the previous record of $2,067.15 set in August 2020, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) said.

“I can think of no clearer demonstration of gold’s role as a store of value than the enthusiasm with which investors across the world have turned to the metal during the recent economic and geopolitical turmoils,” said LMBA’s chief executive officer Ruth Crowell. 

JPMorgan predicted a new record back in July but expected the new high to occur in the second quarter of 2024. The basis of JPMorgan’s optimism for 2024 – falling US interest rates – remains intact:

“The bank has an average price target of $2,175 an ounce for bullion in the final quarter of 2024, with risks skewed to the upside on a forecast for a mild US recession that’s likely to hit sometime before the Fed starts easing.”

Even as gold climbed new peaks, exploration spending on the precious metal dipped. A study published in November overall mining exploration budgets fell this year for the first time since 2020, dropping 3% to $12.8 billion at the 2,235 companies that allocated funds to find or expand deposits.

Despite the sparkling gold price, gold exploration budgets, which historically have been driven more by the junior mining sector than any other metal or mineral, dropped by 16% or $1.1 billion year-on-year to just under $6 billion, representing 46% of the global total. 

That’s down from 54% in 2022 amid higher spending on lithium, nickel and other battery metals, a surge in spending on uranium and rare earths and an uptick for copper. 

Mining’s year of M&A, spin-offs, IPOs, and SPAC deals

In December, speculation about Anglo American (LON: AAL) becoming the target of a takeover by a rival or a private equity firm mounted, as weakness in the shares of the diversified miner persisted.

If Anglo American doesn’t turn operations around and its share price continues to lag, Jefferies analysts say they can’t “rule out the possibility that Anglo is involved in the broader trend of industry consolidation,” according to their research note.

In October, Newcrest Mining shareholders voted strongly in favour of accepting the roughly $17 billion buyout bid from global gold mining giant Newmont Corporation.

Newmont (NYSE: NEM) plans to raise $2 billion in cash through mine sales and project divestments following the acquisition. The acquisition brings the company’s value to around $50 billion and adds five active mines and two advanced projects to Newmont’s portfolio.

Breakups and spin-offs were also a big part of 2023 corporate developments.

After being rebuffed several times in its bid to buy all of Teck Resources, Glencore and its Japanese partner are in a better position to bring the $9 billion bid for the diversified Canadian miner’s coal unit to a close. Glencore CEO Gary Nagle’s initial bid for the entire company faced stiff opposition from Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government and from the premier of British Columbia, where the company is based.

Vale (NYSE: VALE) is not seeking new partners for its base metals unit following a recent equity sale, but could consider an IPO for the unit within three or four years, CEO Eduardo Bartolomeo said in October.

Vale recruited former Anglo American Plc boss Mark Cutifani in April to lead an independent board to oversee the $26-billion copper and nickel unit created in July when the Brazilian parent company sold 10% to Saudi fund Manara Minerals.

Shares in Indonesian copper and gold miner, PT Amman Mineral Internasional, have surged more than fourfold since listing in July and are set to keep rising after its inclusion in major emerging market indexes in November.

Amman Mineral’s $715 million IPO was the largest in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy this year and counted on strong demand by global and domestic funds.

Not all dealmaking went smoothly this year.

Announced in June, a $1 billion metals deal by blank-cheque fund ACG Acquisition Co to acquire a Brazilian nickel and and a copper-gold mine from Appian Capital, was terminated in September.

The deal was backed by Glencore, Chrysler parent Stellantis and Volkswagen’s battery unit PowerCo through an equity investment, but as nickel prices slumped there was a lack of interest from minority investors at the stage of the $300 million equity offering which ACG planned as part of the deal.

Talks in 2022 to acquire the mines also fell through after bidder Sibanye-Stillwater pulled out. That transaction is now the subject of legal proceedings after Appian filed a $1.2 billion claim against the South African miner.

Uranium upsurge

In late November uranium prices scaled $80 per pound for the first time in 15 years, driven by a resurgence in demand for nuclear power and supply disruptions.

Global yellowcake supply might reach 145 million lb. this year or next according to the World Nuclear Association. But annual demand is already at 180 million lb. and the industry group expects it to nearly double to 300 million lb. by 2040.

Some 60 nuclear plants are under construction globally and more are planned. Countries like Germany and Japan that considered phasing them out are reversing course.

Activity in northern Saskatchewan’s Athabasca uranium hotspot is intensifying. NexGen received environmental approval for its Rook I project in November, the province’s first OK for such a project in two decades. Denison Mines released a feasibility study for its Wheeler River project before investing in junior explorer F3 Uranium’s Patterson Lake North property.

Also, IsoEnergy took over Consolidated Uranium in September. Uranium Energy spent C$570 million over the past two years buying Uranium One, UEX Corp. and Rio Tinto’s Roughrider project. Cameco and Brookfield Renewable Partners in October closed their deal to buy Westinghouse’s nuclear plant construction unit for $7.9 billion.

Nickel nosedive

In April, Indonesia’s PT Trimegah Bangun Persada, better known as Harita Nickel, raised 10 trillion rupiah ($672 million) in what was then Indonesia’s largest initial public offering of the year. 

Harita Nickel’s IPO quickly turned sour for investors, however, as prices for the metal entered a steady and long decline. Nickel is the worst performer among the base metals, nearly halving in value after starting 2023 trading above $30,000 a tonne.

Next year is not looking great for the devil’s copper either with top producer Nornickel predicting a widening surplus due to lacklustre demand from electric vehicles and a ramp-up in supply from Indonesia, which also comes with a thick layer of cobalt:

“…due to the continuing destocking cycle in the EV supply chain, a greater share of non-nickel LFP batteries, and a partial shift from BEV to PHEV sales in China. Meanwhile, the launch of new Indonesian nickel capacities continued at a high pace.” 

Palladium also had a rough year, down by more than a third in 2023 despite a late charge from multi-year lows hit at the start of December. Palladium was last trading at $1,150 an ounce.

China flexes its critical mineral muscle

In July China announced it will clamp down on exports of two obscure yet crucial metals in an escalation of the trade war on technology with the US and Europe.

Beijing said exporters will need to apply for licenses from the commerce ministry if they want to start or continue to ship gallium and germanium out of the country and will be required to report details of the overseas buyers and their applications.

China is overwhelmingly the top source of both metals — accounting for 94% of gallium supply and 83% of germanium, according to a European Union study on critical raw materials this year. The two metals have a vast array of specialist uses across chipmaking, communications equipment and defence.

In October, China said it would require export permits for some graphite products to protect national security. China is the world’s top graphite producer and exporter. It also refines more than 90% of the world’s graphite into the material that is used in virtually all EV battery anodes, which is the negatively charged portion of a battery.

US miners said China’s move underscores the need for Washington to ease its own permit review process. Nearly one-third of the graphite consumed in the United States comes from China, according to the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents auto supply chain companies.

In December, Beijing banned the export of technology to make rare earth magnets on Thursday, adding it to a ban already in place on technology to extract and separate the critical materials.

Rare earths are a group of 17 metals used to make magnets that turn power into motion for use in electric vehicles, wind turbines and electronics.

While Western countries are trying to launch their own rare earth processing operations, the ban is expected to have the biggest impact on so-called “heavy rare earths,” used in electric vehicle motors, medical devices and weaponry, where China has a virtual monopoly on refining.

CEO Ron Thiessen specifically noted that these funds will be used “in a responsible manner for the benefit of all Alaskans, especially those in southwest Alaska closest to the Pebble project.”

In September, the Vancouver-based miner provided an updated preliminary economic assessment for the Pebble project, adding in an infrastructure plan for a “southern route” access to the proposed mine, which, if built, would represent the largest in North America. Over a 20-year mine life, Pebble is expected unearth 6.4 billion pounds of copper; 7.4 million ounces of gold, 300 million pounds of molybdenum; 37 million ounces of silver, and 200,000 kg of rhenium.

Still, that is a massive “if”, going by the fierce opposition to the project by local communities as well as the stance taken by the Biden administration.

For nearly two decades, Northern Dynasty has been trying to develop the massive copper resource at Pebble — said to be the world’s largest — but encountered multiple roadblocks in doing so.

Earlier this year, the Pebble mine project was effectively shot down after US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) blocked the company from storing mine waste in the Alaska’s watershed, home to the world’s largest sockeye salmon fisheries.

In July, the state, led by Governor Mike Dunleavy, filed a motion asking the US supreme Court to overturn the EPA’s decision, arguing that the move violated a decades-old land swap deal and Alaska’s sovereignty. Northern Dynasty has also not given up and considered legal options to challenge the EPA.

“The proposed mine for the Pebble project would provide good-paying, year-round employment for thousands of Alaskans, something desperately needed in southwest Alaska,” Thiessen said in a statement earlier this year.

The executive noted that new infrastructure outlined in the new PEA study would offer the additional benefit of potentially lowering energy costs for the region.

Northern Dynasty’s stock was up by 2.2% as of 1:10 p.m. ET on the financing announcement. The company’s market capitalization stood at C$238.4 million ($179m).

The miner said that early works will begin immediately, with full construction expected to start after definitive project finance documents have been executed during the first quarter of 2024.

Chief executive Iván Arriagada said that first copper from the project is expected in 2027. It noted that this addition would help Antofagasta to progress towards its long-term ambition of 900,000 tonnes of profitable copper production and make of Centinela one of the world’s top 15 copper mines by output.

“The Centinela Second Concentrator project is a key element of our profitable growth strategy,” Arriagada said. “It will also reduce net cash costs and unlock significant value in the Centinela district’s two-billion-tonne ore reserve.” 

The executive noted that the new 95,000 tonnes per day concentrator will add 144,000 tonnes of copper production, 130,000 ounces of gold production and 3,500 tonnes of molybdenum production for 36 years.

The project will be financed through a combination of direct funding from Centinela’s shareholders Antofagasta and Marubeni Corporation, which will provide about 40% of total funding, and project finance provided by lenders, the company said.

Copper shortage

Antofagasta has been taking steps to help reduce a looming copper shortage, driven by electrification and the energy transition. Arriagada said the approved project will use 100% renewable electricity and raw sea water, which will reduce the company’s environmental footprint. 

“As a project, [it] represents a demonstration of our purpose of developing mining for a better future,” he said.

The development will also include a new tailings storage facility, growth in energy and other input supply infrastructure, the expansion of outbound logistics networks such as the concentrate transport system and port infrastructure.

The company, majority-owned by Chile’s Luksic family, one of the country’s wealthiest, is also considering the use of more autonomous equipment and new technologies to reuse discarded mine waste.

The Centinela mining complex, located in Chile’s Antofagasta region, was created in 2014 from the merger of the Esperanza and El Tesoro mines. It produces copper concentrates containing gold and silver, using a milling and flotation process, and copper cathodes using a solvent extraction electrowinning process.

The government added fluorine, molybdenum, arsenic, selenium and tellurium to the list of minerals that it regards as essential to modern technologies, economies and national security, Minister for Resources Madeleine King said in a statement Saturday. Helium was removed from the list.

Officials also created a new strategic materials list, which includes copper, nickel, aluminum, phosphorous, tin and zinc. While these commodities are also key to the energy transition, they’re not at risk of supply chain disruption and have well-established industries, according to the statement.

The two lists “will help government focus on those commodities needed to create jobs, keep us secure and power our economy,” King said.

The US and Australia are ramping up cooperation on critical minerals and infrastructure initiatives, part of a strategy aimed at countering Chinese military and economic influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Excluding nickel and copper from the critical minerals list was “a wasted opportunity” and means such projects won’t be eligible for major funding, the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies said in a separate statement. Demand for nickel will be almost four times higher than current production by 2050, the industry body said.

(By Chris Bourke)

Activists with Greenpeace International have been ordered to vacate a research vessel charted by The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC), a pioneer in seafloor polymetallic nodule exploration in the central-eastern Pacific between Hawaii and Mexico.The Nov. 30 ruling also imposes a €50,000 fine on the environmental organization for each day it defies the order, up to a maximum of €500,000. It does, however, allow Greenpeace to continue its protest, as long as it’s at a distance of at least 500 metres.

The vessel, engaged by TMC’s subsidiary, Nauru Ocean Resources (NORI) for environmental assessments, faced a week of disruptions from Nov. 23 by Greenpeace activities, which a Dutch court deemed unsafe and unlawful. NORI is obligated under an International Seabed Authority (ISA) contract to evaluate the deep ocean’s health after a nodule collection test last year.

“We respect the right to protest, but the safety of our legally sanctioned studies comes first,” stated TMC CEO Gerard Barron in an email to The Northern Miner. “Greenpeace’s compliance with the order is welcomed, as we continue our vital research for informed global decision-making.” A Dutch court held jurisdiction over the dispute because Greenpeace is headquartered in Amsterdam.

The confrontation brings to the fore the tension between environmental activism and the advancement of deep-sea exploration technology. With 168 ISA member states plus the EU emphasizing evidence-based decisions, TMC’s work exemplifies the delicate balance that must be found between economic interests and environmental protection in this emerging sector of mining.

The Greenpeace incident came to a head when, after five days of non-stop kayaking activity around the vessel, five activists boarded the MV Coco on Nov. 25 and disabled its A-frame hoist/crane. That caused delays to TMC’s research and NORI claims the protest has been costing it $1.5 million per day.

Despite being ordered to leave the vessel, Greenpeace hailed the court’s announcement as a victory for its right to protest and as a blow to the deep sea mining industry. “The Metals Company has never been interested in scrutiny, and they can’t stand that Greenpeace is watching and opposing them at every turn,” said Mads Christensen, executive director of Greenpeace International.

As a result of Greenpeace’s actions, TMC and NORI are considering seeking compensation for financial losses incurred. 

Greenpeace has openly criticized TMC’s work as “anti-scientific.” TMC counters that Greenpeace’s anti-science charge is hypocritical, citing its engagement of top marine scientists and collaborative data sharing with public institutions to transparently assess and potentially minimize the environmental footprint of nodule collection compared to traditional mining.

“Our work could redefine how we source battery metals, with potentially lesser impacts compared to traditional mining,” Barron said. “It’s vital that we base our environmental stewardship on solid evidence.”

Scientific research interrupted

Greenpeace has vowed to continue its protests every time TMC attempts to advance its mining application, aligning with the political calls for a moratorium from 24 countries.

TMC’s current work aims to assess ecosystem function and recovery on the seafloor one year after test mining. It’s been active at the project for 12 years.

NORI conducted a successful test last fall, collecting over 3,000 tonnes of polymetallic nodules. However, the company has been criticized for its environmental risk management practices after a leaked video late last year showed waste sediment being dumped into the ocean. An ISA investigation found no rule breach but criticized NORI’s ‘risk awareness,’ citing the company’s failure to follow its risk management procedures.

Environmental groups and some countries call for a halt or ban on deep-sea mining, warning of unacceptable risks to marine life and ecosystems. A recent report also suggests that the environmental costs of seabed mining could outweigh the benefits.

Using an array of equipment like remotely operated vehicles and marine sampling tools called box/multicores, academics from various marine research institutions aim to collect biological samples to assess whether there has been a significant change in the makeup of seafloor communities and how much they’ve been affected by the mining.

“Last year’s studies on the seafloor sediment plume have already highlighted that concerns by various non-governmental organizations grossly overstate how far this mud would spread from the direct mining area,” Barron said.

“This latest campaign will help determine if conjecture on the impacts on seafloor organisms is similarly overblown. I can only imagine that our putting to bed of this conjecture is why Greenpeace would seek to disrupt further scientific research.”

This research is not only a legal requirement by the ISA but also a collective effort to enrich the global repository of marine knowledge, the company argues.

Focus on transparency

In response to the boarding incident, TMC has reiterated its commitment to the safety of its crew and the activists involved. The company said it adheres to strict operational protocols, ensuring no harm came from Greenpeace’s unauthorized presence.

Barron said TMC’s exploration efforts, grounded in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea principles, aim to pave a path for responsible resource use, promising a future where the environmental impacts are minimized and developing states benefit from oceanic resources.

The incident also highlights the broader conversation about the ocean’s role in the future of mining. As demand for battery metals soars, driven by the global push towards green energy, the industry must navigate the fine line between resource extraction and environmental conservation. Barron hopes that TMC’s approach, emphasizing open-source data and collaborative research, could set a new standard for responsible deep-sea mining.

The CEO says the company is aware that the world’s eyes are on them. “We are focused on a resource belonging to all humanity. Our approach emphasizes transparency, partnerships, and stakeholder engagement,” he said.

“We believe nodules could be a better alternative to land mining and are working across academia and industry to gather the data to assess whether this hypothesis holds true and sharing this and our plans with the world.”

In Peru, the world’s No. 2 copper exporter, production of the metal was up 2.1% from the same month a year ago, while gold and zinc jumped 10.0% and 10.4% respectively, said national statistics institute INEI.

Mining production in Peru has been steadily recovering since road blockades, part of anti-government protests, paralyzed the nation’s largest miners at the beginning of the year.

Peru slipped into a recession earlier this year, with Economy Minister Alex Contreras saying earlier this week that it would have been even worse if not for mining output.

Iron production fell 10.9% in October, while molybdenum production slipped 3.8%. The report did not give volumes for any of the metals.

Fishing production, also key to Peru’s economy, grew by 51.62% in October, the third-consecutive monthly increase, due to a greater catch of anchovy, which is used in fishmeal and animal feed.

Peru is the world’s top producer of fishmeal.

(By Marco Aquino and Kylie Madry; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

The most-prominent of the three proposed types of deep-sea mining involves using a giant robot that is sent down to the ocean floor from a support vessel.

This robot travels to depths of roughly 5,000 meters to the ocean floor — the least explored place on the planet.

The seafloor, especially in parts of the Pacific Ocean, is covered by potato-shaped rocks known as polymetallic nodules that are filled with metals used to make lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles.

Many scientists say it’s unclear whether and to what extent removing these nodules could damage the ocean’s ecosystem. Automaker BMW, tech giant Google and even Rio Tinto, the world’s second-largest mining company, have called for a temporary ban on the practice.

Composed of manganese, nickel, copper, cobalt and other trace minerals, these nodules hold some of the key ingredients needed to fuel the energy transition.

The metals in those nodules can be used to build electric vehicle (EV) batteries, cell phones, solar panels and other electronic devices. They are separate from rare earths, a group of 17 metals also used in EVs.

With climate change escalating, governments are under pressure to rein in emissions – especially from the transportation sector, which was responsible for about 20% of global emissions in 2022.

By 2040, the world will need to use twice the amount of these metals as it is using today in order to meet global energy transition targets, according to the International Energy Agency. And the world will need at least four times today’s amount in reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.

Many of the minerals that go into making an EV are becoming harder to find on land, pushing up mining costs in recent years. That’s increased prices for EVs and other electronics after they had fallen for years up to 2020. A typical EV needs six times more minerals in total than a vehicle powered by an internal combustion engine.

The scarcity and rising demand has made some governments and companies eager to allow mining in the oceans, which cover more than 70% of the planet’s surface.

First discovered by British sailors in 1873, the potato-shaped polymetallic nodules take millions of years to form as minerals in the seawater precipitate onto pieces of sand, shell fragments or other small materials.

Minerals are also found near deep-sea hydrothermal vents, where they’re called vent sulfides, and within seamounts known as ferromanganese crusts. Processes for extracting these minerals are similar to land-based mining, but harder to do underwater. That’s partly why the nodules are so appealing.

Land vs sea?

The mining industry has long had a mixed reputation on land. While it supplies the materials used to build our modern lives, it has contributed to deforestation, produced large amounts of toxic waste and in some parts of the world has fueled a rise in child labor. In 2019, a tailings dam — a structure that stores the muddy waste byproduct of the mining process — collapsed and killed hundreds of people at an iron ore mine in Brazil.

The average grade of mines on land — that is, the percentage of minerals extracted with every metric ton of rock — has declined over the last decade, requiring miners to dig deeper to extract the same amount of minerals.

All of these factors make deep-sea mining more appealing, supporters say. Environmentalists, however, say it’s a false dichotomy, as land mining will continue whether or not deep-sea mining is allowed.

Any country can allow deep-sea mining in its territorial waters, and Norway, Japan and the Cook Islands are close to allowing it. The International Seabed Authority (ISA), which is backed by the United Nations, governs the practice in international waters. The ISA missed a July 2023 deadline for setting standards for acceptable sediment disturbance, noise and other factors from deep-sea mining – a bureaucratic misstep that now allows anyone to apply for a commercial mining permit while the ISA continues negotiations.

“What are the alternatives if we don’t go to the ocean for these metals? The only alternative is more land mining and more pushing into sensitive ecosystems, including rainforests,” said Gerard Barron, CEO of Vancouver-based The Metals Co, the most-vocal deep-sea mining company and one of 31 companies to which the ISA has granted permits to explore for – but not yet commercially produce – deep-sea minerals.

Other companies with exploration permits include Russia’s JSC Yuzhmorgeologiya, Blue Minerals Jamaica, China Minmetals, and Kiribati’s Marawa Research and Exploration. Their potential future activities are seen as augmenting mining on land.

Where are these minerals?

The Metals Co — which is backed by metals giant Glencore — plans to use the robot to vacuum polymetallic nodules off a vast plain of the Pacific Ocean between Hawaii and Mexico known as the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ).

The company wants the ISA to set deep-sea mining standards, but said it reserves the right to apply for a commercial permit after July 2024 if the regulatory process stalls again. The ISA has said its work may not finish before 2025.

Companies need ISA members to sponsor them before they can apply for exploration or commercial permits. The island nation of Nauru, which is slowly being engulfed by the Pacific Ocean and sees deep-sea mining as key to the world’s energy transition, has sponsored The Metals Co.

Slowing the pace of climate change will be key for climate-vulnerable countries like Nauru if they hope to have a chance of adapting.

“Our existence is being threatened by the global climate crisis,” said Margo Deiye, Nauru’s ambassador to the United Nations and ISA. “We don’t have the luxury of time. This is quite a new nascent industry. Having clear guidelines in place, including standards, would be really helpful.”

Data from the U.S. Geological Survey and others show that the CCZ – which covers roughly 1.3% of the world’s ocean floor – contains more nickel, cobalt and manganese than all on-land deposits, a staggering volume that supporters say shows the practice should move forward. For copper, the CCZ’s deposits are roughly equal with those on land.

Multiple companies have been collecting small numbers of nodules as part of their robot tests in the Abyssal Zone, the part of the ocean below 2,000 meters. One such study is being conducted during November. If the ISA grants The Metals Co a commercial permit, the nodules will be sent to a refinery in Japan where the metals will be processed. The company says it will sell all parts of the nodules and thus there will be no waste byproduct beyond extraneous sand.

The Indian Ocean and parts of the Pacific Ocean are also rich in mineral deposits.

A March 2023 study conducted by the metals consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence found that The Metals Co’s plans for the CCZ would cut mining emissions by at least 70%. The study focused on seven criteria, including contributions to ozone depletion and global warming. The study did find that on-land cobalt mining used less water, however. “We’re not talking about mining all of the ocean,” said Barron of The Metals Co, which funded the Benchmark study but said it had no control over its results. “We’re talking about one little patch.”

Deposits of nodules, crusts, and vent sulfides can be found globally, but only a fraction of these areas are being explored and are considered areas of economic interest.

The ISA has granted 19 exploration contracts for nodules, seven for vent sulfides and five for crusts. The Metals Co holds one; others are held by governments or state-controlled companies in China, Russia, France, India, Poland and Japan.

Decades of research has shown that deep sea mining could harm marine life or ecosystems. For example, sediment plumes kicked up by the robotic vacuum could disrupt animal migrations, according to one study published in February in Nature Ocean Sustainability.

The full importance of the nodules within the ocean ecosystem is unclear, and nodule regrowth could take millions of years. The nodules provide homes for anemones, barnacles, corals and other life forms, while bacteria and other invertebrates thrive on the ocean floor.

“These nodules are essential ecosystem architects. If you remove the nodules, you will remove the architecture supporting the entire oceanic ecosystem,” said Beth Orcutt, an oceanographer at Maine’s Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences who participated in the ISA standards debate.

What can be lost forever

The lively nodules

Once thought of as a desert devoid of life, the seabed is now estimated to have an extensive range of biodiversity. A 2016 study found a statistically significant correlation between aquatic life in the CCZ and nodule abundance.

The sediment plume

As the robot moves across the ocean floor, sediment clouds are stirred up and can irritate filter-feeding animals such as the corals and sponges that make nodules their home.

Regrowing corals

Bamboo corals on seamounts, as all corals, grow slowly, just millimeters per year. However, plumes distort habitat and can disrupt growth. When the corals are covered by sediment, their larvae will have trouble finding new sites to attach, some scientists warn.

Octopus nurseries

Four octopus nurseries have been discovered at hydrothermal springs around seamounts in parts of the Pacific Ocean near the CCZ. These springs act as a kind of “warm spa” and boost the metabolic rate of developing octopuses, thus speeding embryonic development. These springs are difficult to find, and mining may destroy some undiscovered springs before they can be protected, Orcutt said.

Hydrothermal vents

Mining is targeted at inactive vents, which have unique habitats that are even less understood than the ecosystems around active vents. The Scaly-foot snail, for example, is found only in a 300 square-km patch of the Indian Ocean near certain vents. It is the first animal listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature as endangered due to the threat of deep-sea mining.

Essential microbes

The most susceptible species are those that depend on the unique chemistry of the waters that vent from the seafloor. The nodules have evolved symbiotically with microbes that can turn those weird chemicals into food. Mining also threatens conditions for these tiny microbes, some scientists say.

Irreversible damage

In the deep sea, it takes roughly 10,000 years for the ocean floor sediment layer to grow by just 1 millimeter, a process that includes sequestering carbon. The robotic vacuum’s disturbance reaches 10 centimeters into the seafloor, “basically resuspending a million years’ worth of time of carbon,” says the marine biologist Orcutt.

Discharge plumes

The nodules, once collected, are washed and stored on a ship, with the excess sand dumped back into the ocean. Scientists worry the discarded sand could harm aquatic life, including the plankton at the bottom of the food chain and tuna. The Metals Co says it will discharge sediment at depths below 1,000 meters to avoid most marine life.

Industrial noise

Studies show that loud noises can travel as far as 500 kilometers, impacting communications among marine animals like whales and causing behavioral stresses.

Light pollution

On the seabed, the robotic vacuum’s floodlights can harm shrimp larvae, studies have shown. On the surface, light from vessels that support the robots may affect squid and other aquatic creatures, as well as seabirds. More study is needed, scientists say, to understand potential harm from artificial light.

Human impact

In a March 2023 petition to ISA, more than 1,000 signatories from 34 countries and 56 Indigenous groups called for a total ban on deep-sea mining. Some Indigenous island communities are intimately connected to the ocean for fishing and other cultural traditions and oppose deep-sea mining, setting up a conflict with Nauru, the Cook Islands and other island nations that support it.

Is there a better way?

As the world’s hunger for metals and minerals to go green increasingly clashes with the realities of the mining process, the deep sea has become the latest focal point. Ultimately, manufacturers aim to create a circular “closed-loop” system, where old electronics are recycled and their metals are used to build new products.

But reaching that goal is expected to take decades. Debate about whether sensitive ecosystems on land should be dug up have empowered deep-sea mining advocates. Some companies competing with The Metals Co believe that the robotic vacuum is the problem, and are offering potential solutions.

The startup Impossible Metals has developed a robotic device with a large claw that collects nodules as the claw glides along the seafloor. Using artificial intelligence, the robot’s claw is able to distinguish between nodules and aquatic life, the company says.

“From day one, we are focused on preserving the ecosystem,” said Jason Gillham, the CEO of Impossible Metals. However, while the Impossible Metals robot is battery-powered, its energy comes from a diesel generator on a ship at the ocean’s surface, fueling charges that the company’s methods are not fully green.

A Japanese company plans to start mining next year in territorial waters controlled by Tokyo. Chinese officials have acknowledged they lag behind other nations in the deep-sea race, but are vowing to vigorously compete in this “new frontier for international competition.” China is already exploring a massive part of the Pacific seabed west of Hawaii – an area that dwarfs the CCZ. Norway, already a prolific offshore oil producer, is on track to be the first country to allow deep-sea mining if its parliament approves, as expected, plans to mine hydrothermal vents.

For now, the ISA’s members are hotly debating the best standards for deep-sea mining.

“Nothing we do will have zero impact,” said Joe Carr, a mining engineer with the metals consultancy Axora. “We’re going to need mining for the green energy transition.”

Sources:

NOAA Ocean Exploration and Research, the International Energy Agency, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Beth Orcutt at Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, Pradeep Singh at Research Institute for Sustainability, Kira Mizell at U.S. Geological Survey, The Metals Co., Impossible Metals, Natural Earth, Blue Earth Bathymetry, International Seabed Authority, InterRidge Vents Database.

(By Daisy Chung, Ernest Scheyder and Clare Trainor; Editing by Julia Wolfe, Katy Daigle and Claudia Parsons)

According to a new study by S&P Global Market Intelligence, overall mining exploration budgets fell this year for the first time since 2020, dropping 3% to $12.8 billion at the 2,235 companies that allocated funds to find or expand deposits.

Gold budgets, which historically have been driven more by the junior mining sector than any other metal or mineral, dropped by 16% or $1.1 billion year-on-year to just under $6 billion, representing 46% of the global total. 

That’s down from 54% in 2022 amid higher spending on lithium, nickel and other battery metals, a surge in spending on uranium and rare earths and an uptick for copper. 

But the dominant role gold plays in exploration – and therefore the industry’s future remains clear from the fact that the combined money flowing into green energy transition metals (or future facing commodities as some majors like to label them) was not enough to offset the decline in gold.

Gold exploration budgets, like most mined commodities, peaked in 2012 when the precious metal accounted for nearly half the more than $20 billion spent. 

Gold juniors represent 38% of the allocation to exploration this year and reduced spending by the sector was responsible for the bulk of the overall reduction in budgets. 

It also follows the years-long trend in the gold sector identified by S&P Global where exploration has shifted to minesites and away from grassroots exploration. 

The top region for gold exploration thanks in no small part to its vibrant junior sector, Canada, saw a roughly $400 million drop in budgets. Only in Asia Pacific did allocated resources increase compared to 2022 although not by much and from a low base. 

Junior jaundice 

The pullback among gold explorers represents a significant drop compared to last year when the sector spent more than the majors searching for the precious metal. 

It is an indication of the difficulty junior exploration companies have had over the last year or so of tapping markets for new funding. 

On a quarterly basis, gold financing for junior and mid-size mining companies was the lowest in Q3 since the September quarter of 2018.

Overall financing, excluding majors at $8 billion year-to-date was the lowest since 2019 and less than half raised over the same period last year. 

Like with exploration budgets, the overall decline in financings came despite mining companies involved in specialty commodities managing to raise 46% more in the year to end-September than the same period last year.  

Overall the 41,086 holes drilled around the world from January to mid-Oct 2023 in search of non-ferrous metals and minerals represent a 23% decline compared to last year. 

Gold drilling is down by 36% over the same period. With the gold price back in touch with $2,000 an on geopolitical safe have demand and the weakness across base and battery metals, it’s not inconceivable that gold’s share of exploration budgets top 50% again soon.

Basic base metals    

Base metal budgets increased to 33% of the total, led by a $327 million increase in spending on copper, the metal at the centre of the energy transition, and a significant $117 million jump in outlays to find or expand nickel deposits.  

The bulk of nickel exploration funds are directed at Canada where budgets for the stainless steel alloy and battery metal are now approaching $300 million.

“You’d have to go back to 2006/2007 to find a year in which the collective base metals attracted more money for exploration than gold,” says Kevin Murphy, research director metals and mining S&P Global Commodity Insights. 

Copper in 2023 represents less than a quarter of mining exploration spending despite a double digit gain from 2022 to $3.12 billion, mostly by major miners and not juniors.

Murphy says copper exploration lagged behind other metals when it came to the shift of exploration to minesites, but this year despite growing budgets overall grassroots exploration for copper declined compared to 2022. 

Nickel exploration budgets are also being spent on minesites with more than half of the $732 million budgeted this year aimed at replenishing reserves and extending mine lives. Majors carry out 54% of global nickel exploration, a rising share.     

Lithium is the new old gold

Lithium exploration budgets almost doubled this year after doing the same in 2022. In total $830 million was allocated to finding and expanding lithium resources in 2023, the third most explored non-ferrous commodity.

“Lithium is a young commodity for both exploration and development and it reflects this in a lot of different ways,” says Murphy.  

The sector is entirely dominated by juniors at the moment with 82% of the exploration work carried out by smaller companies. “Whenever there’s a lot of interest in a commodity, the juniors tend to follow suit.”

The undeveloped nature of the lithium mining industry also shows up in the stages of development with grassroots, late stage exploration and feasibility making up the vast majority of field work being carried out. 

A not insignificant portion of exploration for lithium is being carried out by governments which at 4% works out to more than $30 million from public coffers.  

Large budget increases were seen all over the world led by Latin America and specifically  Argentina, which hosts the largest undeveloped resources of the battery metal. 

Australia produces half the world’s lithium currently and it’s the second most funded region for exploration followed by Canada, where budgets have doubled year on year to in excess of $160 million. 

Exploration in the US also jumped substantially – the country is home to the second largest undeveloped resource of lithium globally.   

Murphy expects lithium budgets to grow “although it’s tough to say just how much, simply because a lot of this is going towards late stage and feasibility work”:

“And of course, once a feasibility study gets completed, that’s a very large expenditure that falls away. There is the potential that we could see a small dip in lithium in the coming years.”

Also impacting future funding of lithium exploration is a precipitous and unrelenting slide in prices for the metal, now around $20,000 a tonne, from a peak north of $80,000 in November last year. 

Uranium upsurge, REE ramp up

S&P Global now tracks 121 active projects grouped under what it calls specialty commodities and includes lithium, cobalt, graphite, rare earth, uranium and others, a near six-fold increase from two years ago. 

Platinum group metals and diamond exploration has been on a downtrend for about two decades, according to the research company and until recently that was also true for uranium.

However a rebound in spot prices for the nuclear fuel – now trading at its highest in more than a decade after scaling $70 a pound last month – saw a more than $35 million bump in exploration budgets in 2023. 

There’s growing realisation, even among environmental groups, that the move away from fossil fuels is too heavy a lift for unreliable wind and solar energy alone. 

Rare earths, also expected to play an important part in the green energy transition due to extensive use in electric motors and wind turbines, received a massive bump in funding for exploration in 2023 given the industry’s overall size – just shy of $50 million more than last year.   

The deposit was found near Armidale, New South Wales, Australia. It is a free, unlicensed land, believed to be barren.

But Roman Teslyuk, founder and CEO of Earth AI, and his team had a hunch. Thus, they decided to build a series of hypotheses and systematically test them. Each hole they drilled, tested a single hypothesis.

After eight months, four holes drilled under winter conditions in the high Australian plateau and many pieces of equipment lost to snow, they were able to pinpoint high-grade ore.

“Prior to this, we drilled four holes in the Northern Territory. This brings us to a one-in-eight success rate at discovering economic grade mineralization, which is a remarkable improvement over the industry standard of one in 200,” Teslyuk told Mining.com.

MDC: Can you provide more details of how the discovery came to be?

Teslyuk: Our Mineral Targeting Platform is a geological deep learning solution that’s really good a finding mineral systems using surrounding geological and geophysical data. It trains on virtually all known mineral prospects across the continent and, using this knowledge, predicts new systems.

In this case, we had a “juicy target” on land that had been turned over four times previously by junior explorers but also majors who spent hefty amounts of money on exploration and found no mineral deposits. 

But we committed, licenced the area, consulted with the community, obtained all the permits and began exploring.

We discovered high-grade molybdenum. The grades we observe are 1.5-2X higher than the world’s leading molybdenum mines.

High molybdenum grades were confirmed in three samples analyzed by a certified laboratory. These grades, registered at 0.3%, 0.26%, and 0.135%, exceed the currently mined grades of 0.16% and 0.14% found in the world’s leading molybdenum mines, Climax and Henderson. Both of these mines are owned by Freeport McMoran.

As a high-performance explorer of clean energy minerals, we don’t look for just one thing during our exploration. This is because there are multiple metals usually mixed into a deposit. We study the mineral system to understand which metals are likely to form an economic deposit, but also that means that we are indirectly tracking other critical metals like copper, tin, tungsten, and gold that might form adjacent deposits or be mined as a secondary commodity. In this case, we also intersected low-grade copper at 0.3% adjacent to high-grade molybdenum mineralization.

MDC: Earth AI says it uses modular drilling. Can you explain this?

Teslyuk: Modular drilling or responsible drilling refers to our innovative approach to mineral exploration drilling, which embraces modularity as key to redundancy and operational efficiency. It is a drilling hardware system designed by Earth AI to be self-sufficient, minimize environmental impacts and ensure a safe, efficient drilling operation in the most remote desert environments.

Our modular hardware eliminated the need for groundwork by design. Our onboard waste management system ensures the safe treatment and disposal of drilling waste. Modular drilling also enables significant logistical gains, as we can carry more stock in a highly organized manner, we come more prepared, and our operation can remain self-sufficient no matter what drilling challenge we encounter. 

MDC: Could you describe how the AI system employed to find the greenfield deposit works?

Teslyuk: It helps to understand how our entire process system works, which consists of three phases: Targeting, hypothesis, and drilling.

Our AI system is used for the foundation of our exploration, the targeting phase – our models train on millions of geological cases from the entire continent and have learned to identify areas of mineralization, and highlight locations with a high probability of finding a mineralized system. We deploy teams into the field to sample and review the targets. 

In the hypothesis phase, geologists are on the ground studying the mineral system. At this stage, a sister technology is utilized that helps them better understand the geological setting and aids them in forming hypotheses.   

The drilling phase is where we test our hypotheses by drilling down to a depth of 600 meters and proving or disproving the presence of mineralization. Each drill hole provides invaluable knowledge that is then fed back into the system and used to form new hypotheses.

As a result of this process, our AI prediction tools are the most accurate in the industry.

MDC: What baseline data are fed to this AI system?

Teslyuk: It is trained on a vast amount of data – 400 million geological cases from across the continent. The fundamental datasets for learning are remote sensing, geophysical and geochemical datasets.

MDC: How is your AI system different from others?

Teslyuk: Geoscience is a new domain for AI and our AI system is unique in its approach as it thinks like a geologist. The unique aspect lies in how we teach the AI to learn geology. To do this you need to be both a geology and AI expert, a skillset that is incredibly rare. 

Another important aspect of the Mineral Targeting Platform is the focus on re-learning the archive data at the continental scale.

Geoscientists are incentivized to churn out papers, and this means they generate more and more detailed but disconnected data sets, and nobody is incentivized to draw conclusions together. It is a very hard task that might not lead anywhere.

Lastly, the unique capability of our technology is the prediction of mineral systems with very low detection limits. This capability is incredibly valuable as all of the low-hanging fruit has been picked and no traditional regional targeting tools solve the problem. In the instance of the molybdenum porphyry, the surface expression of high-grade 0.3% molybdenum mineralization was a borderline detection limit of 0.002% soil anomaly.

Wheaton has also agreed to purchase 100% of the silver produced by the mine over the project life. Payable silver is calculated using a fixed payable factor of 90%.

“Waterton Copper is delighted to have Wheaton Precious Metals’ support,” said Isser Elishis, executive chair. “Waterton is investing approximately $600 million to optimize Mineral Park including significant capital investments in new primary crushers, secondary and pebble crushing circuits, and new higher-power SAG mills, which are expected to result in decades of operational excellence.”

Mineral Park has a 12-year mine life, with the potential to extend production to over 20 years. Attributable production is forecast to average at least 690,000 oz. of silver per year for the first five years, rising to an average of 740,000 oz. over the life of the project.

The project is owned and operated by Origin Mining, a subsidiary of Waterton Copper. It is located near Kingsman, in the northwest corner of Arizona. The project is in the second phase of construction with completion expected by the end of the first quarter 2025.

Large-scale open pit copper mining began in 1963 and continued into 2014. Origin purchased the property in 2015.

At the end of Q1 2022, the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s biggest miners hit an all-time record of a collective $1.75 trillion as copper spent time above $10,000 a tonne, real nickel trades were being made above $40,000, lithium shipped for over $60,000 and everything from gold and platinum to uranium and tin were rallying hard. 

Uranium prices have doubled since then to above $60 a pound, tin is also trading higher, although well below its March 2022 peak while gold’s recent safe haven rally means the precious metal is also trading higher compared to March 2021.

Iron ore, where the top diversified mining companies dig for most of their profits, has also held up remarkably well, trading at $120 a tonne this week, little changed from end-June.  

Base and battery metals however have entered a deep slump since those heady days. Copper, zinc and aluminium are firmly in bear market territory down by a fifth or more, nickel and palladium investors are nursing 40%+ losses, cobalt is nearing record lows and lithium prices are hovering above $20,000.

After defying weakness on metals markets due to high expectations of strong future demand, particularly for copper, lithium and nickel, mining stock valuations have now succumbed. 

At the end Q3 2023, mining valuations for the industry’s top tier have slumped a total of $516 billion since the all-time highs. Declines so far this year total $145 billion for a combined market value of $1.38 trillion – back to levels seen at the end of September 2021.  

Just how bad sentiment is across the board is evident from the best performer list for Q3, which includes for the first time three counters which lost ground over the period. 

Archipelago ascent

The first Indonesian company to make it into MINING.COM’s ranking of world’s 50 most valuable mining companies, Amman Minerals Internasional, has surged 213% in US dollar terms since its July debut in Jakarta to reach a market capitalisation just shy of 450 trillion rupiah, or more than $28 billion.

Amman Minerals is the owner and operator of the giant Batu Hijau copper and gold mine in production since the turn of the millennium and is developing the adjacent Elang project on the island of Sumbawa. 

Elang is one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper and gold porphyry deposits and is currently in the feasibility stage. Elang boasts 4.7 million tonnes of proven and probable copper reserves and over 15 million ounces of gold.

Indonesia has become a red-hot IPO market this year and Amman was the largest of the year so far raising more than $700m in its IPO, and now sits at number 11 on the ranking. 

Bloomberg reports Amman Minerals’ ascent has minted at least six new billionaires, including chairman Agus Projosasmito, whose stake in the company is now worth $2.7 billion. The miner’s spectacular market performance has also added $4 billion to the net worth of Anthoni Salim, who helms one of Indonesia’s largest conglomerates, taking the tycoon’s paper billions to within shouting distance of double digits.

Indonesia’s other major mining IPO, Harita Nickel, is on a different trajectory altogether. Listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange  in April raising $672m, the company has had a tough go of it and the stock has shed more than 60% since then as nickel prices continue to decline.

Lithium losses

The strength of the lithium sector outside China had been remarkable given the precipitous decline in prices for the battery metal since hitting all time highs above $80,000 a tonne in November last year. 

But during Q3 the slump in prices of the battery raw material caught up with the six stocks represented in the Top 50, for a combined loss of over $30 billion in market cap over the three month period to just over $70 billion. 

Measured from their 52-week highs the correction in the sector has been brutal – Perth-based Pilbara Mineral has bled 31% in market cap, making it the best performer. Mineral Resources has given up 37% while the declines for Albemarle, SQM, Ganfeng and Tianqi have been over 50%.  

Pilbara Minerals, which unlike its peers is clinging onto year-to-date gains,  joined the Top 50 last quarter and brought the number of companies based in the Western Australia capital to five, surpassing the tally of Vancouver, British Columbia as the top home base in the ranking.

The chances of another Perth-based lithium miner, IGO, of entering the Top 50 has dimmed. With a market cap of $5.4 billion, the company is down to the mid-60s in the ranking. 

The merger of US-based Livent and Australia-Argentina lithium miner Allkem, expected to close before 2023 is out, may also not be enough for the combined firm to enter the Top 50. Together the two companies are now worth $7.4 billion, which would edge out AngloGold Ashanti for the last spot, but the fortunes of lithium and gold going into 2024 are diverging widely.  

The blocking tactics of Gina Rhinehart’s Hancock Prospecting against the takeover of Liontown Resources by Albemarle turned out to be successful with the US lithium giant deciding to walk away from the deal this week.

Liontown’s 127% surge this year afforded the Perth-based company a market value of $4 billion before the collapse of the takeover which halted trading in the stock. Liontown on Thursday said it has secured the necessary funding to bring its Kathleen Valley project into production.

Enriched uranium

In September, uranium scaled $60 per pound for the first time since 2011. The breakthrough for the nuclear fuel comes after a decade in the doldrums following the Fukushima disaster in Japan.

The World Nuclear Association predicts world reactor requirements for uranium to surge to almost 130,000 tonnes (~285 million pounds) in 2040. That’s up from an estimate of 65,650 tonnes in 2023. 

A significant portion of the WNA’s upward growth adjustments can be attributed to the accelerated adoption of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) as part of decarbonisation efforts for a range of industries from shipping to data centres with powering remote mine sites near the top of the list for SMR potential.

Canada’s Cameco makes the best performer list over the three months again in Q3 after spending much of the post-Fukushima period in the wilderness. The Saskatoon-based company enters the top 30 for the first time after jumping 19 places so far this year.    

The value of shares in Kazatomprom, the world number one uranium producer, topped $10 billion at the end of Q3 placing it at position 36. Until this year the state-owned Kazakh company was outside earshot of the Top 50 since its dual-listing in London and Astana in 2018.  

Diversified drop

BHP’s market position has also been supported by uranium prices as the Melbourne-based company boosts output at its Olympic Dam operations. 

The world’s top mining company’s market value has declined by less than 8% year to date for a $142 valuation, outperforming other diversified heavyweights Rio Tinto, down 17%, Glencore (–21%), Vale (–25%) and Anglo American (–38%). 

London-listed Anglo American has had a rough year in part due to its exposure to platinum group metals and control of Anglo American Platinum, and is now valued at $32 billion after peaking at $70 billion in March 2021.  

Investors in Anglo, with a history going back more than a hundred years on the South African gold and diamond fields, have had a particularly wild ride over the last few years. In January 2016, Anglo’s market cap fell below $5 billion after it came close to suffocating under a pile of debt.  

The dramatic slump in palladium prices (down 38% this year) and platinum (–16%) have also seen AngloPlat drop to its lowest position ever at a valuation of $10 billion, down from nearly $40 billion end-March 2021. 

Former PGM high flyers Impala Platinum and Sibanye Stillwater, both valued around the $4 billion mark today, have lost sight of the Top 50 altogether. 

*NOTES:

Source: MINING.COM, Mining Intelligence, Morningstar, GoogleFinance, company reports. Trading data from primary-listed exchange at Sep 29-Oct 5, 2023 where applicable, currency cross-rates Oct 7, 2023. 

Percentage change based on US$ market cap difference, not share price change in local currency.

As with any ranking, criteria for inclusion are contentious. We decided to exclude unlisted and state-owned enterprises at the outset due to a lack of information. That, of course, excludes giants like Chile’s Codelco, Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining, which owns the world’s largest gold mine, Eurochem, a major potash firm, and a number of entities in China and developing countries around the world.

Another central criterion was the depth of involvement in the industry before an enterprise can rightfully be called a mining company.

For instance, should smelter companies or commodity traders that own minority stakes in mining assets be included, especially if these investments have no operational component or warrant a seat on the board?

This is a common structure in Asia and excluding these types of companies removed well-known names like Japan’s Marubeni and Mitsui, Korea Zinc and Chile’s Copec. 

Levels of operational or strategic involvement and size of shareholding were other central considerations. Do streaming and royalty companies that receive metals from mining operations without shareholding qualify or are they just specialised financing vehicles? We included Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals on the basis of their deep involvement in the industry.

Vertically integrated concerns like Alcoa and energy companies such as Shenhua Energy where power, ports and railways make up a large portion of revenues pose a problem as does battery makers like CATL which is increasingly moving upstream, but where mining still make up a small portion of its valuation.  

Another consideration is diversified companies such as Anglo American with separately listed majority-owned subsidiaries. We’ve included Angloplat in the ranking but excluded Kumba Iron Ore in which Anglo has a 70% stake to avoid double counting. Similarly we excluded Hindustan Zinc which is listed separately but majority owned by Vedanta.

Many steelmakers own and often operate iron ore and other metal mines, but in the interest of balance and diversity we excluded the steel industry, and with that many companies that have substantial mining assets including giants like ArcelorMittal, Magnitogorsk, Ternium, Baosteel and many others.

Head office refers to operational headquarters wherever applicable, for example BHP and Rio Tinto are shown as Melbourne, Australia, but Antofagasta is the exception that proves the rule. We consider the company’s HQ to be in London, where it has been listed since the late 1800s.

Please let us know of any errors, omissions, deletions or additions to the ranking or suggest a different methodology.

Copper output was 25% higher than the previous quarter, owing to higher grades, improved recoveries and increased mill throughput.

Taseko acquired Sojitz’s 12.5% stake in Cariboo Copper, the joint venture that runs Gibraltar, in March. It now owns 87.5% of the mine. The production figures are reported on a 100% basis.

Sojitz sold its interest for minimum payments of C$60 million over five years, but could receive more based on production and revenue figures.

Stuart McDonald, CEO of Taseko, said in a press release that mining in the Gibraltar pit is progressing on plan and the lower benches are providing the ore quality the company expected.

The molybdenum production also represents a 60% quarterly increase due to higher grades as mining progressed deeper into the Gibraltar pit.

Taseko also noted that a port workers strike in early July caused shipping delays and a build-up of Gibraltar copper concentrate inventory.

As a result, third quarter sales volumes lagged production by 3 million lb., and the excess inventory is expected to be shipped and sold in the fourth quarter.

Shares of Taseko Mines closed Wednesday’s session 0.6% lower, with a market capitalization of roughly C$465 million.

Located in the Cariboo region of south-central British Columbia, Gibraltar is the second-largest open pit copper mine in Canada and fourth-largest in North America.

The company also recently received the last permits needed to advance its Florence in situ recovery copper project in Arizona into construction.

Greenland Resources has proposed to build a 35,000-ton-per-day mining facility which would produce 483 million pounds of molybdenum over 20 years at a cash cost of $6.30/lb. molybdenum.

Currently, China produces around 45% of world’s molybdenum, while the EU is the second largest molybdenum user worldwide and has no production of its own.

Greenland Resources said it will supply some 25% of Europe’s total molybdenum demand for 20 years from a responsible EU source with one of the highest-grade and clean molybdenum deposits in the world, adding that Malmbjerg will prioritize responsible mining practices and top-tier environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards.

The collaboration with ERMA enabled Greenland Resources to sign documentation on offtake agreements directly with six major EU metallurgical steel and chemical companies and to secure letters of intent to finance the project capex from AAA credit-rated financial institutions, it said.

As global demand for molybdenum continues to soar, its prices have surged, making it one of 2023’s top-performing metals. The London Metal Exchange reported a closing price of $23.95/lb. on Sept.22, nearly 33% higher than the base case price used in the company’s NI 43-101 feasibility study.

“Greenland is committed to fostering responsible mining ventures that not only tap into our abundant natural resources but also prioritize the well-being and empowerment of our local communities,” Naaja H Nathanielsen, Greenland’s Minister of Finance, Minerals, Justice and Gender Equality, said in a statement.

“It’s crucial that we set a benchmark for ESG standards while maintaining our competitive advantage,” Nathanielsen added. “Projects such as the Malmbjerg project with proximity to Europe and high-quality ore serve as a model of responsible mining practices, and they hold immense importance for our region in terms of growth and job creation.”

In June, Greenland Resources expanded its support to Ittoqqortoormiit, the nearest community to the Malmbjerg project. This included a boost in financial support and mining training, enhancing internet infrastructure, and allocating funding to strengthen culture and education initiatives.

Greenland Resources also recently signed an MOU with Nuna Group of Companies, a world-class Canadian majority Inuit-owned civil construction company that specializes in Arctic construction and contract mining operations. This will add to the cooperation and training between Canadian and Greenlandic Inuit communities.

“ERMA’s support has been instrumental in our success,” said Dr. Ruben Shiffman, Greenland Resources executive chairman. “Recently, in the presence of the Prime Minister of Belgium, we signed terms with Molymet, the world largest molybdenum roaster, to convert our molybdenite concentrate in Belgium to ferromolybdenum, molybdenum oxide, and ammonium dimolybdate and sell them directly to the EU steel and chemical industry.”

The company has completed a prefeasibility study (PFS) for reopening the Thompson Creek operations. It gives a restarted project – along with the Langeloth tolling facility near Pittsburgh, Penn. – a combined $373 million after-tax net present value at a 5% discount and a 16% after-tax internal rate of return.

The study calls for increasing capacity utilization at Langeloth (one of the largest molybdenum conversion plants in North America). The extra capacity will allow Centerra to blend high grade Thompson Creek ore with lower-quality third-party concentrates. That will increase the volume of high margin final molybdenum products.

The mining plan for Thompson Creek has a life of 11 years, producing a lifetime 134 million lb. of molybdenum (moly). The average mill head grade will be 0.07% moly. The all-in sustaining cost of a pound of moly will range from $15 to $18 in years two and three, to $12 to $15 in years four to eight, and $8 to $11 in years nine through 11.

According to the PFS, Centerra will have to spend between $350 million and $400 million to satisfy pre-production capital requirements. The capital spending at the project in 2023 is expected to be $9 million to $10 million to advance the project with de-risking activities such as geotechnical drilling, additional engineering costs, and onsite early works.

Centerra has begun a feasibility study at Thompson Creek which is expected to be complete in mid-2024. The company then plans to authorize a limited notice to proceed with $100 million to $200 million of pre-stripping and long-lead times equipment purchases.

The Thompson Creek project has measured and indicated resources of 117.1 million tonnes grading 0.07% moly and containing 177 million lb. of metal. The inferred resource is 806,000 tonnes grading 0.04% moly and containing 1 million lb. of molybdenum.

The Canadian miner said the independent technical report reviews cost and price estimates to reflect current economic volatility, providing production, financial and cost estimates for a proposed 20-year, 180,000 tonnes per day open pit operation.

The company, through its subsidiary Pebble Limited Partnership, has been trying to develop the mine for almost two decades, but it has hit several roadblocks in the process.

Former US President Barack Obama opposed the project, and his successor Donald Trump ultimately did too, deeming it “too risky”.

President Joe Biden has openly expressed its opposition to the project, taking steps as soon as he took office in 2021 to permanently protect Alaska’s Bristol Bay.

As part of his administration’s measures against Pebble, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) blocked the company in January from storing mine waste in the state’s watershed, home to the world’s largest sockeye salmon fisheries.

The decision effectively blocked what would be North America’s largest mine and any future mining of the same deposit in headwaters of Bristol Bay.

Alaska filed a motion in July asking the US supreme Court to overturn the EPA’s veto, arguing the move violated a decades-old land swap deal and the state’s sovereignty.

Pebble Limited Partnership is also considering its legal options to challenge the verdict, which concluded the project would cause large-scale loss and damage to Bristol Bay’s watershed.

Legal update

Northern Dynasty noted the 2023 PEA includes updates on the EPA’s final determination and the US Army Corps of Engineers record of decision appeal processes.

The Pebble project would be capable of processing 1.3 billion tonnes of mineralized material over 20 years of mining, with an average yearly operating cost of $14.17 per tonne.

The mine would on average produce every year about 320 million pounds of copper; 368 000 ounces of gold, 15 million pounds of molybdenum, 1.8 million ounces of silver and 10,000 kg of rhenium.

Over its life-of-mine, Pebble will unearth 6.4 billion pounds of copper; 7.4 million ounces of gold, 300 million pounds of molybdenum; 37 million ounces of silver, and 200,000 kg of rhenium.

The total initial capital cost for the design, construction, installation and commissioning of the proposed project is estimated to be $6.77 billion.

“The proposed mine for the Pebble project would provide good-paying, year-round employment for thousands of Alaskans, something desperately needed in Southwest Alaska,” Northern Dynasty CEO Ron Thiessen said in a statement.

The executive noted that new infrastructure developed to support the project would offer the additional benefit of potentially lowering energy costs for the region. 

For decades, explorers and developers have been attracted to resource-rich southwestern Alaska, known for holding significant deposits of gold, copper, molybdenum and other minerals near the headwaters of two rivers flowing into Bristol Bay.

But conservationists, local activists, fishermen and federal regulators have argued that industrial, open-pit mining operations to extract the lode threatens the region’s thriving salmon sector.

According to the National Geology and Mining Service, Sernageomin, the incident took place on Saturday. The two victims, identified as Gerardo Carimán Cruz and Jorge Alberto Navarrete, were employed by sub-contractor company Netaxion and were working on the operation’s communications system. Despite being rushed to the nearest hospital by helicopter, they did not survive. 

“For Anglo American, the safety of the people who work at our sites is a priority and we will continue making efforts to promote a safe work environment and a culture of zero harm,” the London-based firm said in a statement made public on social media.

Los Bronces is one of Anglo American’s two largest copper operations. It has been mined for over 150 years and is running out of high-grade ore. However, the miner is developing a $3-billion extension project that seeks to sustain production levels and extend the mine’s life through to 2036.

The site has the capacity to produce over 300,000 tonnes of the red metal each year. The underground deposit is estimated to have a 1.7% copper grade, three times the mine’s open pit grade.

The project is part of Anglo American Sur, owned by Anglo American (50.1%), the Codelco-Mitsui consortium (29.5%) and Mitsubishi (20.4%).

In a paper published in the journal Small, KAUST researchers demonstrated the use of laser pulses to modify the structure of a promising alternative electrode material known as MXene, boosting its energy capacity and other key properties.

In the study, the scientists explain that graphite contains flat layers of carbon atoms, and during battery charging, lithium atoms are stored between these layers in a process called intercalation. MXenes also contain layers that can accommodate lithium, but these layers are made of transition metals such as titanium or molybdenum bonded to carbon or nitrogen atoms, which make the material highly conducting.

The surfaces of the layers also feature additional atoms such as oxygen or fluorine. MXenes based on molybdenum carbide have particularly good lithium storage capacity, but their performance soon degrades after repeated charge and discharge cycles.

The role of molybdenum

The KAUST team, led by Husam N. Alshareef and Zahra Bayhan discovered that this degradation is caused by a chemical change that forms molybdenum oxide within the MXene’s structure.

To tackle this problem, they used infrared laser pulses to create small “nanodots” of molybdenum carbide within the MXene, a process called ‘laser scribing.’ These nanodots, roughly 10 nanometers wide, were connected to the MXene’s layers by carbon materials.

This offers several benefits. Firstly, the nanodots provide additional storage capacity for lithium and speed up the charging and discharging process. The laser treatment also reduces the material’s oxygen content, helping to prevent the formation of problematic molybdenum oxide. Finally, strong connections between the nanodots and the layers improve the MXene’s conductivity and stabilize its structure during charging and discharging.

“This provides a cost-effective and fast way to tune battery performance,” Bayhan said in a media statement.

The researchers made an anode from the laser-scribed material and tested it in a lithium-ion battery over 1000 charge-discharge cycles. With the nanodots in place, the material had a four-fold higher electrical storage capacity than the original MXene and almost reached the theoretical maximum capacity of graphite. The laser-scribed material also showed no loss in capacity during the cycling test.

Given these results, they think that laser scribing could be applied as a general strategy to improve the properties of other MXenes. This could help to develop a new generation of rechargeable batteries that use cheaper and more abundant metals than lithium, for example.

“Unlike graphite, MXenes can also intercalate sodium and potassium ions,” Alshareef said.

The lawsuit asked the high court to reverse the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Water Act veto. The agency’s January decision determined the Pebble project would cause large-scale loss and damage to the Bristol Bay watershed, and prohibited the project from dumping mining waste into those waters.

Alaska said the restrictions violate the state’s sovereign right to regulate its lands and waters, as well as a 1976 land swap with the US government that gave the state ownership over the area in question.

The EPA’s decision illegally blocks development that is “critical to the continued well-being of Alaska, which has long relied on its resource-rich lands to fund the state and local governments,” the state said.

The EPA said it is reviewing the filing. A representative for Northern Dynasty didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment Wednesday.

John Shively, chief executive of Northern Dynasty’s Pebble LP unit, which is overseeing the project, said in January that the EPA’s decision was unlawful and would hurt the state’s economy.

The Bristol Bay watershed in southwestern Alaska supports the world’s largest sockeye salmon fishery and is known for its large mineral resources. The watershed also provides habitat for 29 species of fish, more than 190 birds and dozens of mammals, according to the EPA.

The proposed mine would tap one of the world’s largest copper and gold deposits. The EPA claims it would permanently destroy over 2,000 acres of wetlands.

Alaska’s lawsuit was filed directly with the Supreme Court, instead of first going through lower courts, which Alaska Attorney General Treg Taylor said in a statement is an “extraordinary ask” that is needed because the EPA’s decision was itself “extraordinary.”

The case is State of Alaska v. United States, US Supreme Court, No. not immediately available.

For Alaska: Attorney General Treg Taylor; Ronald Opsahl of the Alaska Department of Law; and Michael Connolly and Gilbert Dickey of Consovoy McCarthy

For the US: Not yet available

Read more: Northern Dynasty’s Pebble copper project gains more time