After a 22% decline over six weeks, industry experts and analysts say that the uranium market has likely set a new floor thanks to a strong demand outlook.

“We have reached a bottom,” said Jonathan Hinze, president of UxC, a nuclear industry research firm. “The fundamentals are still strong, with increased demand and supply that hasn’t fully responded.”

Uranium futures are trading at $88.50 a pound in New York — down from the 16-year high reached in February, but still well above last year’s average price of $66.60 a pound.

There are indicators uranium’s new floor is at around current levels, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Mike Kozak said in an interview, predicting that fundamental buyers will come back into the market and drive up prices again.

Bullish investors are betting on the long-term prospects of the radioactive metal due to a growing supply gap and increased demand as governments worldwide turn to nuclear power to counter climate change. Such demand comes as Canada’s Cameco Corp. and Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom, which together account for half of global supply, warned of supply setbacks in the coming years.

Kazatomprom, the No. 1 producer, said during its March 15 earnings call that it is projecting a 21 million pound supply deficit in 2030 — a shortfall that would multiply to 147 million pounds by 2040.

Geopolitics may also affect the supply outlook. The US introduced a bill in December that would ban imports of enriched Russian uranium — the kind used to fuel nuclear reactors and weapons. The bill needs to be passed by the US Senate and signed by President Joe Biden to be enacted.

Still, with other uranium miners looking to dust off mothballed operations in response to higher prices, there are risks a rally could fizzle out quickly, much in the same way that a boom in battery metals markets turned to bust over the past couple years.

Treva Klingbiel, president of uranium price provider TradeTech, said she doesn’t see demand for nuclear fuel easing any time soon.

“We have a number of geopolitical factors that have a really significant influence on buyer behavior, even though fundamentally nothing has changed” she said. “Buyers can use the spot to tell them the sentiment of the day, but must look at the long-term market to see that it is marching steadily up, it hasn’t taken a hiccup at all.”

(By Maria Clara Cobo)

By Tuesday afternoon, stock in the Toronto-based company had fallen 29% since Friday to C$2.21 apiece, valuing Global Atomic at C$462.7 million. It was as low as C$2.03 on Tuesday and has traded in a 52-week range of C$1.28 to C$3.91.

Global Atomic plans to start Dasa’s $424.6 million construction after June and commission the mine by the end of next year, according an updated feasibility study this month. The military coup in July led the US to suspend government funding for Dasa, but the company raised C$15 million in January by selling stock and says it will pursue more financing in a 60% borrowing, 40% equity-raising model.

“With the situation in Niger being fluid, in addition to current advanced discussions with project lenders, the company is also pursuing other financing strategies to meet its project funding requirements,” president and CEO Stephen G. Roman said in a release on Monday. “Given strong third-party interest in Global Atomic’s high-grade uranium project and our plans for near-term production, there are many groups interested in funding the Dasa project.”

The spot price of uranium oxide, also called yellowcake, was $91 per lb. on Tuesday, down from $107 per lb. last month, but still at its highest level since 2007. The metal is at nearly double its year-ago price on rising demand for electricity production without the air pollution of fossil fuels, and a forecast supply deficit. China alone plans to build about 150 reactors over the next decade.

Shares in other uranium producers, such as Canada’s Cameco (TSX: CCO; NYSE: CCJ) and Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom (LSE: KAP), the world’s largest, gained 2% on the Niger developments, but declined on Tuesday to near Friday’s close.

US bases

American troops have been in Niger to fight regional Islamic insurgents since a 2012 agreement. The West African country supplies about 5% of global uranium demand making it the seventh-largest producer, including about 20% of the European Union’s needs. Numerous junior and large companies are exploring in Niger. French-state owned Orano said last month it was restarting production that was suspended after the coup.

David Talbot, a uranium market expert and managing director of Toronto-based Red Cloud Securities, said that despite the uncertainty in Niger, the country has been a steady uranium producer for more than 50 years and the government has respected operations by foreign companies.

“Even with the recent removal of French troops from the country, Niger has respected Orano’s business and we would expect it to do the same with Global Atomic and others,” Talbot said in a note on Tuesday. “For now, the key catalyst for Global Atomic remains the closing of its project debt financing.”

The main shareholders in Global Atomic are Toronto-based Sprott Asset Management with nearly 8% through exchange-traded funds, and New York’s Global X ETFs and investment firm VanEck. The January stock fundraising included $5 million from Bermuda-based Regent Mercantile Holdings led by Stephen Dattels, who also has an interest in Pasofino Gold (TSXV: VEIN) and its Dugbe gold project in Liberia.

Global Atomic raised Dasa’s probable reserve by 50% to 73 million lb. uranium oxide in 8 million tonnes grading 4,113 parts per million uranium oxide, according to the new feasibility study. The company has signed offtake agreements for 1.3 million lb. of uranium a year from a plant expected to produce about 3 million lb. annually over a proposed 23-year mine life.

Sahel region

Western nations such as France, which has long stationed troops in its former colonies, have been trying to help countries in West Africa’s Sahel region south of the Sahara Desert stem the growth of Islamic insurgents over the past few decades. The US began its Africa Command in 2007. But recent coups, including in neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso, have hardened the resolve of some countries to lessen ties with the West and turn to Russia and its mercenary outfit Wagner Group for support.

In an alarming development for the US, Niger is considering a yellowcake supply deal with Iran, The Wall St. Journal reported on Sunday. The West has been trying to block Iran’s access for decades to nuclear material that could help it build an A-bomb.

The pivot prompted a US delegation including Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Molly Phee to visit Niger last week and press the regime under General Abdourahamane Tiani to organize elections, address security concerns and kill the Iran deal. But the Americans didn’t meet with Tiani. He issued a statement criticizing the condescending attitude of the visitors for not following protocol, denied there was a deal with Iran and cancelled the security arrangement with the US.

The US operates two bases there including one for drones built in 2021 for an estimated $100 million, according to Reuters. It remains unclear if all the 1,300 US soldiers in the country will have to leave.

Nuclear fuel

Besides countering Islamic insurgents, the West also wants to increase its uranium fuel processing. The US, Canada, Britain, France and Japan committed a total of $4.2 billion in December to build new plants since Russia’s Rosatom controls more than half the world’s capacity. Some Western nations are considering whether to sanction Rosatom and yellowcake exports to Russia.

For uranium investors, the price crash in battery metals nickel, lithium and cobalt may be a cautionary tale about the energy transition’s demand at this stage. Nuclear power has held out promise for decades but safety concerns, accidents and construction cost overruns have limited its appeal. The cure for high metal prices is high metal prices, The Economist noted last month.

But the Toronto-based Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (TSX: U.U for USD; U.UN for CAD), the largest investment fund in the physical metal, with $5.5 billion under management, remains boosterish while noting constraints in Niger.

“The situation in Niger is still developing, and Orano continues to face logistical challenges with both accessing the required reagents and exporting uranium,” Sprott exchange-traded fund project manager Jacob White said in blog-post on Monday. “Uranium’s recent pullback from the triple digits may be an attractive entry point in the overall uranium bull market.”

The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed a ban on imports of Russian uranium. The bill must pass the Senate before becoming law.

In this graphic, we visualize how much the U.S. relies on Russian uranium, based on data from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA).

US suppliers of enriched uranium

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russian-produced oil and gas—yet Russian-enriched uranium is still being imported.

Currently, Russia is the largest foreign supplier of nuclear power fuel to the United States. In 2022, Russia supplied almost a quarter of the enriched uranium used to fuel America’s fleet of more than 90 commercial reactors.

Most of the remaining uranium is imported from European countries, while another portion is produced by a British-Dutch-German consortium operating in the United States called Urenco.

Similarly, nearly a dozen countries around the world depend on Russia for more than half of their enriched uranium—and many of them are NATO-allied members and allies of Ukraine.

In 2023 alone, the U.S. nuclear industry paid over $800 million to Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy corporation, Rosatom, and its fuel subsidiaries.

It is important to note that 19% of electricity in the U.S. is powered by nuclear plants.

The dependency on Russian fuels dates back to the 1990s when the United States turned away from its own enrichment capabilities in favor of using down-blended stocks of Soviet-era weapons-grade uranium.

As part of the new uranium-ban bill, the Biden administration plans to allocate $2.2 billion for the expansion of uranium enrichment facilities in the United States.

(This was originally posted on Visual Capitalist Elements)

This licence has been renewed for a further two years until February 2026, it said in a press release Thursday. In September 2022, Forsys has also made an application with Namibia’s the Ministry of Mines and Energy to convert the licence into a full 25-year mining licence (ML); this submission is pending.

“EPL-3638 covers a strategic land position with significant exploration upside,” commented Pine Van Wyk, Forsys’ in-country director. “We greatly appreciate the Ministry’s continued support as we accelerate development of the Norasa project and continue to work closely with the Ministry in obtaining the ML.”

Last June, the company obtained the renewal of its environmental clearance certificate (ECC) from the Ministry, allowing it to further advance the development plan for Norasa for three more years.

The wholly owned Norasa project consists of two uranium deposits: Valencia, for which a 25-year ML has already been obtained, and the aforementioned Namibplaas located 4.5 km to the northeast. Both deposits have NI 43-101-compliant uranium resources and reserves.

In 2015, Forsys completed a definitive feasibility study on the project, outlining a long-life operation producing a total of 77.8 million lb. of uranium oxide (U₃O₈), including 25.8 million lb. during the first five years. The project is anchored by total mineral reserves of 206 million tonnes grading 200 parts per million U₃O₈, for roughly 90 million lb. of U₃O₈.

The pre-tax net present value of the Norasa project is estimated at US$622.6 million, using a discount rate of 8%. Its internal rate of return is 32%, and the payback period is 4.4 years from production.

Forsys Metals’s stock traded 6.1% higher at C$1.05 by 3:30 p.m. in Toronto, near its 52-week high of C$1.15. The company has a market capitalization of C$204.9 million ($152m).

The Corpus Christi, Texas-based company restarted production at Rosita in November of last year, and is licensed to produce 800,000 pounds of uranium ore annually.

The company also said it entered into a fifth commercial uranium sales contract with deliveries from 2026 through 2032.

“With Rosita underway, we are now moving aggressively to restart the Alta Mesa Plant, which we expect will commence production as planned in Q2 2024,” Encore CEO Paul Goranson said in a news release.

Uranium prices have doubled over the past year as top producers cut output targets, failing to ramp up production despite reopening mothballed mines.

Last month, the world’s largest producer, Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom (LON: KAP), warned it is likely to fall short of its output targets over the next two years.

Future projects in enCore’s production pipeline include the Dewey-Burdock project in South Dakota and the Gas Hills project in Wyoming, along with uranium resource endowments in New Mexico.

(With files from Bloomberg)

The battery metals-focused miner said the project is close to significant discoveries such as IsoEnergy’s Hurricane deposit, which has an indicated resource of 48.6-million pounds of uranium oxide (U3O8), based on 63,800 t grading 34.5% U3O8.

It also presents potential for “basement-hosted” mineralization, akin to the high-grade deposits found below the Athabasca Basin’s unconformity, such as NexGen’s Arrow deposit, Recharge said.

The company noted it had secured commitments for a A$1.44-million share placement to fund the acquisition and accelerate exploration activities at the asset. An additional A$50,000 will be placed to directors, subject to shareholder approval, Recharge said.

”The continued partnership between Recharge and DGRM, who sold our Express lithium project, has cultivated a robust working rapport over the past year,” managing director Felicity Repacholi said in the statement. 

Interest in uranium assets has picked in the past year as prices for the radioactive material rally. The commodity has extended its gains in 2024 as Kazatomprom, world’s biggest producer of the metal used to produce nuclear fuel, owered its guidance for production for this year by 12% to 14%.

Shares in the company surged as much as 8.5% to A$0.077 on the announcement, their biggest intraday percentage gain since Feb. 16. The stock closed at A$0.072, leaving Recharge Metals with a market capitalization of A$8.1 million ($5.2m). 

_________
RELATED: Uranium firms revive forgotten mines as price of nuclear fuel soars

At least five US producers are reviving mines in states including Wyoming, Texas, Arizona and Utah, where production flourished until governments soured on the radioactive element following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan.

Most of those American mines were idled in the aftermath of Fukushima, when uranium prices crashed and countries like Germany and Japan initiated plans to phase out nuclear reactors.

Now, with governments turning to nuclear power to meet emissions targets and top uranium producers struggling to satisfy demand, prices of the silvery-white metal are surging. And that’s giving those once-unprofitable uranium operations a chance to fill a supply gap.

Uranium has been used as an energy source for more than six decades, fueling nuclear power plants and reactors. About two-thirds of global production comes from Kazakhstan, Canada and Australia.

Uranium will be a topic of conversation as thousands of mining executives, geologists and bankers descend on Toronto for the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada gathering this week. The annual event has attracted at least 10 uranium firms, including Denison Mines Corp., Fission Uranium Corp. and IsoEnergy Ltd.

As countries increasingly consider nuclear power to address climate change, demand for uranium is expected to skyrocket. The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates the world will need more than 100,000 metric tons of uranium per year by 2040 — an amount that requires nearly doubling mining and processing from current levels.

Canada’s Cameco Corp. and Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom, which together account for half of global supply, have struggled to ramp up production. They have warned of some operational setbacks that will result in less uranium output than expected in the coming years.

“We’re in an old-fashioned, plain-and-simple supply squeeze,” said Scott Melbye, executive vice president of Texas-based Uranium Energy Corp. “Demand is increasing again, with new reactors coming online.”

Production hasn’t kept pace due to years of underinvestment in mining and exploration, said Melbye, whose company is reopening mines in Wyoming and Texas that were idled in 2018.

Energy Fuels Inc. initiated plans late last year to restart operations in Arizona, Utah and Colorado, while Ur-Energy Inc. said it will dust off an idled mine in Wyoming. Mid-sized companies in Australia and Canada have announced similar plans.

To be sure, production from these mines — most of which are small and nearing the end of their lives — would comprise a small fraction of the world’s uranium supply.

“The industry is clearly trying to respond with smaller mines reopening, but when you have a mine that hasn’t operated for that long, it’s obviously not very substantive,” said John Ciampaglia, chief executive officer of Sprott Asset Management, which operates the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust.

Top producers

Supply constraints should ease with top producers churning out the millions of pounds of uranium they left in the ground when prices were low. Kazatomprom has been increasing output after years of operating well below its capacity.

Cameco has been ramping up production at the world’s largest high-grade uranium mine and mill — MacArthur River and Key Lake in the western Canadian province of Saskatchewan — after idling operations between 2018 and 2021 due to weak market conditions.

The two firms “will be very concerned about losing their market share to a bunch of juniors, and so they’ll want to claim that back,” said Tom Price, a senior commodities analyst at London-based investment bank Libereum. “That will take a lot of heat out of the market.”

Still, US mine reopenings mark a revival for an American industry that was at risk of disappearing only five years ago. American uranium production hit an all-time low of 174,000 pounds in 2019 — a drop from its 44-million-pound peak in 1980 — as the US started increasing dependence on imports from countries like Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan and Russia.

The US industry’s push is also political, with the government seeking to secure access to supply amid geopolitical uncertainty. Sanctions on Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine have posed challenges for uranium shipments en route from Kazakhstan, since the former Soviet state’s exports typically pass through Russian ports.

To keep up with demand, the Uranium Producers of America forecasts the US will need eight to 10 new, major mines to start production over the next decade.

(By Jacob Lorinc and Maria Clara Cobo)

The decision, IsoEnergy said, is underpinned by rising uranium prices and follows Energy Fuels’ recent announcement to restart its uranium circuit at the White Mesa mill.

Tony M, along with the Daneros and Rim projects, is one of three past-producing, fully-permitted uranium mines in Utah owned by IsoEnergy. It is a large-scale, fully developed and permitted underground mine that previously produced nearly one million lb. of uranium oxide (U3O8) during two different periods of operation, from 1979-1984 and from 2007-2008.

“With the uranium spot price now trading around $100 per pound, we are in the very fortunate position of owning multiple, past-producing, fully permitted uranium mines in the US that we believe can be restarted quickly with relatively low capital costs,” IsoEnergy CEO Phil Williams said in a news release.

IsoEnergy has guaranteed access to the White Mesa mill by way of a toll milling agreement with Energy Fuels. The mill is the only operational conventional uranium mill in the US with licensed capacity of over 8 million lb. of U3O8 per year.

IsoEnergy’s portfolio also includes the Hurricane uranium deposit on its 100%-owned Larocque East property in the eastern Athabasca Basin, Canada. The deposit has an indicated resource of 63,800 tonnes grading 34.5% U3O8, containing 48.5 million lb. of U3O8. There is also an inferred resource of 54,300 tonnes at 2.2% U3O8, for 2.7 million lb. of U3O8.

IsoEnergy also owns three more uranium projects in the Athabasca Basin.

CanAlaska Uranium (TSXV: CVV) says “rare” new drill results help expand the Pike zone at its West McArthur joint venture uranium project with Cameco (TSX: CCO; NYSE: CCJ) in northern Saskatchewan. The shares jumped.

Drill hole WMA082-4 at the eastern Athabasca Basin site intersected 13.8% uranium equivalent (eU₃O₈) over 16.8 metres, including 40.3% over 4.7 metres and 13.5% eU₃O₈ over 2.4 metres at the Pike zone, the company said in a release on Wednesday.

Shares in CanAlaska Uranium rose 34% to C$0.61 apiece in Toronto on Wednesday morning, valuing the company at C$90.1 million.

“It is extremely rare to intersect uranium mineralization of this grade and width anywhere in the world, including the Athabasca basin,” CanAlaska CEO Cory Belyk said in the release. “Since initial discovery in 2022, the CanAlaska team has believed Pike zone had the potential for Cigar- and McArthur River-like uranium grades and thickness based on prior drilling results.”

Cameco’s Cigar Lake and McArthur River-Key Lake uranium mines in Canada’s globally-important region for the heavy metal to make nuclear fuel are among the highest grade and largest in the country. Interest in uranium projects is accelerating as uranium has more than doubled in price to $102 per lb over the last 12 months.

Project generator

CanAlaska, which calls itself a project generator, owns 83.4% of the West McArthur project while Cameco has the rest. CanAlaska holds interests in 5,000 sq. km of the Athabasca Basin, also including the Moon Lake South project owned with Denison Mines (TSX: DML; NYSE: DNN).

Winter drilling at West McArthur will continue seeking to expand the Pike zone discovery and along strike unconformity testing to the northeast and southwest, the company said. CanAlaska alone is paying for this year’s exploration program at the project as it increases its majority ownership, it said.

The lower sandstone column of drill hole WMA082-4 contains several fault zones of quartz dissolution and clay-filled breccias extending over 80 metres above the uranium mineralization, the company said. The drill hole is about 30 metres along strike to the northeast of drill hole WMA082-2, which intersected 1.03% U₃O₈ over 6.3 metres, including a sub-interval of 2.82% U₃O₈ over 1.9 metres as reported in January. The unconformity target at Pike zone remains open in all directions around WMA082-4, it said.

The site is characterized by massive to semi-massive, blebby, disseminated, clay-hosted and fracture-controlled uranium mineralization associated with yellow and orange uranium secondaries where the Athabasca sandstone and the underlying basement rocks meet, CanAlaska said.

“The geologists have been laser focused on determining the geological controls in a clear and methodical approach,” Belyk said. “Tier one uranium deposits always occur as ‘pearls on a string’ and we have now found a pearl.”

The Nordic country’s government under Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson intends to report by May 15 on how it can write new legislation. A 2018 law by the previous government halted uranium exploration and mining projects, sidelining Vancouver-based District’s Viken and Melbourne-based Aura’s Häggån (pronounced HAY-gorn) projects in central Sweden that hold uranium, vanadium and other metals.

District’s Viken deposit, 570 km north of Stockholm, is among the world’s largest deposits of uranium and vanadium based on a 2010 historical resource estimate. It showed 2.8 billion inferred tonnes grading 170 parts per million (ppm) uranium and 2,680 ppm vanadium for 1 billion lb. contained uranium and 16 billion lb. vanadium.

“It is a significant step towards lifting the current uranium mining moratorium,” District CEO Garrett Ainsworth said this week. “The Swedish government has made its intentions clear by stating that ‘the current ban on uranium mining will be removed.’”

While Sweden’s uranium output is minor by global comparisons, its resources account for 27% of Europe’s, according to the country’s geological survey. The heavy metal has more than doubled its price in the past 12 months to $102 per lb. as nuclear power continues its resurgence as a cleaner energy than fossil fuels and major producers such as Kazakhstan, Canada and Niger report supply hiccups.

Uranium wasted

Kristersson’s government, which came to power in September 2022, stated last August it would reverse the uranium mining ban. However, the administration has been occupied trying to stem a surge in gang violence afflicting the country while resisting the anti-immigrant policies of a coalition party it relies on for support. As it stands, the uranium ban requires miners to separate the heavy metal from processing and discard it.

“If the European Union is to become the first climate-neutral continent, access to sustainable metals and minerals must be ensured,” Climate and Environment Minister Romina Pourmokhtari said Friday. “We need to use the uranium we have, instead of sorting it out and considering it as waste.”

Shares in District Metals gained 15% since Friday to 30¢ apiece in Toronto, valuing the company at $32.5 million.

In November, Sweden approved plans to build two large-scale reactors by 2035 and the equivalent of 10 new reactors a decade later. The country depends on nuclear energy for about 40% of its power and said it intends to remove fossil fuels from its grid by 2040.

Project boosted

Uranium is only a minor component of Aura’s Häggån project about 650 km north of Stockholm. But adding uranium lifts the project’s after-tax net present value to as much as $1.6 billion at an 8% discount rate from $1.3 billion at the same rate, Aura said in a 2023 scoping study.

David Talbot, managing director and head of equity research at Red Cloud Securities in Toronto, said Häggån makes up A$48.6 million or 7.1% of its A$679.4 million corporate net asset value estimate.

“We anticipate this to increase should the uranium mining ban be overturned and management demonstrate a reasonable path to production,” Talbot said in a note on Tuesday. “We view the potential uranium mining ban repeal in Sweden as a very positive development and optimistically look forward to the results of the inquiry in May.”

Aura Energy closed 9% higher in Sydney on Tuesday at A$0.24 for a A$135 million market capitalization. The company plans to apply for a 25-year exploitation permit this year. After the ban was invoked, the company filed a compensation claim against the government, but now company managing director and CEO Andrew Grove welcomes Kristersson’s efforts.

“It is the start of a process which I hope will result in new legislation that not only makes it legally possible to mine uranium, but also provides a predictable permit process for uranium extraction alongside the mining of other metals,” Grove said this week. “It makes sense economically and environmentally to make full use of these resources.”

If market conditions remain robust, the Whirlwind and Nichols Ranch mines could potentially elevate Energy Fuels’ uranium production to a run-rate of over two million pounds of U3O8 per year as early as 2025, the company said.

In response to the current strength in uranium prices, Energy Fuels plans to conduct exploration drilling on its Nichols Ranch area properties and underground delineation drilling at its Pinyon Plain mine in Arizona.

The company intends to advance permitting on its large-scale Roca Honda, Sheep Mountain and Bullfrog uranium properties for additional uranium production in the future.

The spot price of U3O8 reached a high of $102.00/lb. this month, with the long-term price of U3O8 at $72.00/lb., according to data from TradeTech.

“We hold a bullish long-term view of uranium prices, and we are investing to boost production,” Energy Fuels CEO Mark Chalmers said in a release.

In 2023, the company sold 560,000 lb. of uranium for about $60/lb., yielding total gross profits of $17.96 million and a 54% gross margin.

“As long as market prices remain strong, we will continue to selectively capitalize on spot market sales opportunities as we ramp up our production in 2024 and beyond, all with limited capital,” Chalmers said. “We have become one of the few profitable non-state-owned uranium mining companies globally.”

Shares of Energy Fuels rose 4.4% by 12:00 p.m. EDT. The company has a market capitalization of approximately $1 billion.

Kazakhstan is expected to deliver the highest uranium production growth in 2024, GlobalData says, driven by the planned higher output from the country’s largest uranium producer Kazatomprom. The continuous ramp-up of Canada’s McArthur River uranium mine will also contribute to the global increase, it adds.

Kazakhstan accounted for 37.3% (20.1kt) of total global uranium supply in 2023. Despite a 5.1% dip in output in 2023 due to planned lower production from Kazatomprom, its output is expected to recover in 2024, with forecast production of 23.2kt. This will be supported by the company’s plan to produce between 21.2-21.6kt on a 100% basis, while production is expected to increase to between 25.9-26.7kt with no restrictions in 2025.

Meanwhile, global uranium production in 2024 will be further bolstered by continuous ramp-up of Canada’s McArthur River, which is aiming to produce 6.9kt of uranium (8.2kt of U3O8) for 2024. In October 2023, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission renewed the licences for McArthur River for a further 20 years, allowing the mine to continue operations until October 2043.

Global uranium production is expected to grow with a compound annual growth rate of 4.1% from 2024 to 2030, as output reaches 76.8kt in 2030.

Read More: Uranium price jumps to 15-year high as top miner flags shortfall

A $1.6 billion uranium mining deal between France and Mongolia that is part of French efforts to diversify supplies to power its fleet of nuclear reactors is running into political hurdles.

A debate about protecting strategic resources in Mongolia risks delaying the finalization of the agreement until after elections in June, according to two people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified. Progress has also been hampered after the Asian country’s chief negotiator stepped down, a third person said, meaning the deal had to be redrafted.

French uranium producer Orano SA reached an outline accord to develop and operate the Zuuvch-Ovoo mine in Mongolia in October during a trip by the nation’s president, Khurelsukh Ukhnaa, to Paris to meet with counterpart Emmanuel Macron.

A final investment agreement was expected to be signed by the end of last year, with production due to start in 2028.

A long delay or even cancellation of the project would be a blow to state-controlled nuclear group Orano, which has said the plan is a key step in widening supplies as global demand picks up. It has uranium mining operations in Canada and Kazakhstan, as well as in Niger, where its business has been put in jeopardy by last year’s military coup.

Mongolian government representatives were not immediately able to comment on the contract delays. Orano said in an emailed statement that talks are continuing and that authorities have expressed strong motivation to finalize the agreement as soon as possible.

A series of supply setbacks in the past year including the Niger coup, which disrupted shipments to Europe, has pushed spot uranium prices to 15-year highs. The world’s biggest producer of the metal, Kazakh state-owned miner Kazatomprom, cut its production forecast last month, citing a shortage of acid needed to process the ore. That’s happening amid a revival of interest in nuclear power as governments try to decarbonize their economies to meet emissions targets.

France said in October it wants to give landlocked Mongolia, which is situated between Russia and China, “the means to benefit from greater strategic sovereignty” in the face of “two extremely powerful neighbors.”

Russia supplies more than 80% of the petroleum products Mongolia needs, while China is the main buyer for Mongolian exports. Beijing is adding atomic plants at a rapid pace.

Tensions around access to critical raw materials and strategic equipment have flared up between the West and Russia after President Vladimir Putin sent troops to Ukraine two years ago. The US and Europe have imposed severe sanctions on the Russian economy, prompting the Kremlin to turn to China, Turkey and Arab countries to keep its industry afloat.

Russia has also become much more hostile to any Western influence on its neighbors, including Central Asian nations and Mongolia. Meanwhile, Moscow has displaced Paris as a leading partner in several African capitals in the wake of military coups, including in Niger.

Soon after Mongolia’s president returned from Paris in October he was paid a visit by a Russian delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister Viktoria Abramchenko. In December, Russia also agreed with Mongolia on a plan to build a small modular reactor, according to state news agency TASS.

When Russia cut energy supplies to its neighbor in December, citing an incident at a hydro power plant, Mongolia had to limit daily power consumption, highlighting its dependence.

Mongolian Energy Minister Battogtokh Choijilsuren visited Moscow the same month to discuss the possibility of uninterrupted supply of petroleum products with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Earlier in February, Russia said it’s treating Mongolia in a preferential manner when it comes to oil-product prices.

(By Ilya Arkhipov, Samy Adghirni and Francois de Beaupuy)

The data, from the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) which holds its 92^nd annual convention Mar. 3-6 in Toronto, shows just how much junior miners are struggling, despite a growing international recognition of mining’s importance.

Last year, for the first time in a decade, there wasn’t a single financing above C$125 million on the TSX Venture Exchange, where many junior mining exploration companies are listed. Deals at the C$200 million level had previously been fairly common, Jeff Killeen, policy and program director for PDAC, said in an interview.

“The juniors, particularly those outside of the critical mineral sphere, are facing more hurdles in terms of accessing capital,” Killeen said. “When they’re accessing it, there’s just smaller deals being done.”

Total financing on the TSX Venture has fallen for three years running, with the exchange falling far behind the main board in equity raised for the first time since 2017. Last year, the gap between the two grew to C$1.1 billion. With risk capital suffering overall though, junior miners actually “punched above their weight,” accounting for three quarters of all funds raised on the Venture Exchange last year.

Nearly C$8 billion in equity was raised on all Canadian exchanges last year for mining, up slightly from 2022, and on par with the 10-year average for fundraising.

“Arguably, the availability of capital hasn’t moved or materially improved over the last 10 years,” Killeen said. “It hasn’t declined, but it does seem to be moving in different directions.”

Precious metals exploration still draws the lion’s share of funding with C$2.1 billion raised last year. But PDAC figures show other metals gaining ground. Total capital for base and battery metals plus uranium has roughly tripled since 2020 to nearly C$2 billion, while funding for precious metals exploration shrunk by 19% last year alone.

More governments around the world waking up to the crucial role of metals in the energy transition is being reflected in new interest among international delegates coming to the PDAC convention, Killeen says.

“The global conversation is changing,” Killeen added. “There’s a growing awareness (about critical minerals) and people are recognizing PDAC is the place to come to.

“There’s a real global commitment that we’re seeing towards electrification, clean technology, and emissions reduction that’s only going to happen if the mineral industry is brought to that table.”

Mindful of the challenges its membership is facing, PDAC is aiming to make it easier for juniors to connect with potential investors this year by bringing corporate presentations onto the Investors Exchange floor for the first time.

The program also includes a series of critical minerals-related sessions that cross over between the technical program and the policy programs, as well as integrated sessions between the capital markets and the Indigenous and sustainability programs.

Advocacy

While capital has been difficult to access for at least the past three years, the federal government has recently put in place policies and incentives that amount to end-to-end supports for mineral companies, from exploration through to project construction.

The packages are part of its Critical Minerals Strategy, introduced in late 2022, which commits C$3.8 billion in total spending. The supports for mining are historic — but there is some room for improvement, according to PDAC.

The C$1.5 billion over seven years Critical Mineral Infrastructure Fund, for example, should be revamped as a perennial fund, Killeen says — especially considering the steep price tag of most infrastructure. (Initial applications for this funding, which will only dole out a total of C$300 million this year, are due Feb. 29.)

And PDAC wants to ensure that the Clean Technology Manufacturing input tax credit, which gives a 30% cash-back credit for critical minerals extraction and processing, can be applied to polymetallic projects that may contain precious metals as well as critical minerals.

As for regulatory initiatives, PDAC will be involved in hot-button topics such as how to prevent short-sellers from targeting junior miners — an issue that the Save Canadian Mining group, supported by big industry names such as Eric Sprott and Rob McEwen, has been asking regulators to address. The Canadian Investment and Regulatory Organization and the Canadian Securities Administrators said last year they would be forming a working group in early 2024 to study short-selling issues.

“We’ve been asking for what we think are logical changes to regulations around short selling for several years,” Killeen said.

In 2021, PDAC called for an alternative uptick rule (which would prevent short-selling in a stock that has dropped more than 10% in one day) to be instated, bringing Canada in line with U.S. regulations.

“We also at that time and have continued to ask for a more comprehensive framework for activist short sellers, so that there is more of a balance in our home marketplace with respect to disclosure.”.

PDAC is also advocating for changes to the flow-through regime that could attract a broader set of investors. The flow-through charity tax credit, which allows juniors to transfer exploration tax credits to investors, is used primarily by high earners. A change to the alternative minimum tax is yet to be formalized in any legislation, but the government has said is effective as of Jan. 1. It could jeopardize an investment stream that has raised nearly C$4 billion for exploration in Canada in the last three years.

Killeen says flow-through shares could be more appealing to a broader slice of investors if capital gains on the shares were assessed based on the issue price, rather than on a nil-cost basis as they currently are.

Optimism, despite near-term hurdles

As commodity prices have tumbled (with the exception of uranium and gold), challenges for juniors are likely to continue — at least in the short-term. But the conversation around mining globally is radically more supportive than even five years ago, leaving Killeen optimistic for juniors in the medium to long-term.

“If you think five or 10 years down the road from where we are today, I don’t know I’ve ever seen an overall environment that’s been as positive towards what mineral exploration and mining means for the future.”

State-owned Great British Nuclear is said to be holding discussions with Hitachi Ltd. to buy a site in Wylfa in Anglesey, an island off north Wales, the FT said, citing confirmation from an unidentified minister. The government would then aim to find a new private investor to develop the site, the newspaper said.

Hitachi walked away from plans to build a new nuclear reactor at the Welsh site in January 2019 after failing to secure a financial agreement with the British government. The move ended up costing the company £2.1 billion ($2.7 billion), according to the newspaper.

The UK has huge nuclear power ambitions, but it’s struggling to get its program off the ground as construction is often prone to delays. The government is aiming for as much as 24 gigawatts of capacity by 2050 and will have to accelerate rapidly to achieve that.

Last month, Electricite de France SA said its nuclear project at Hinkley Point, the UK’s largest energy project, will cost as much as £10 billion extra to build and take several years longer than planned. The UK government also announced an additional £1.3 billion for the Sizewell C nuclear plant as it seeks to attract private capital.

Power output from the UK’s nuclear power plants fell to the lowest in more than four decades last year, signaling an increasing reliance on fossil fuels that will make it more difficult to reach the nation’s net zero emissions target.

(By Priscila Azevedo Rocha)

That was the good news delivered this week by Cameco president and CEO Tim Gitzel. And strong financial performance is also expected this year.

“The benefits of nuclear power have come clearly into focus, with 28 countries around the world declaring support for the tripling of capacity to help achieve global net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The uncertainty about where nuclear fuel supplies will come from to satisfy growing demand has led to increased long-term contracting activity, and in 2023, about 160 million lb. of uranium was placed under long-term contracts by utilities,” said Gitzel.

Prices across the nuclear fuel cycle rose in 2023 and continue to rise. Uranium spot prices more than doubled to $100/lb. at the end of January 2024, after being only $48 at the end of 2022. The long-term price for uranium was $72/lb., an increase of about 38% over the same period.

Year-end revenue for 2023 was C$2.59 billion, up from C$1.87 billion for 2022. Gross profit was C$562 million (C$233 million in 2022) and net earnings were C$361 million (C$89 million in 2022). Adjusted EPITDA was C$831 million, compared to C$431 million in 2022. Cash provided by operations in 2023 was C$688 million (C$305 million in 2022).

One notable accomplishment last year was adding a 49% interest in Westinghouse to the Cameco portfolio. Brookfield Asset Management retained the remaining 51% interest.

“We believe Westinghouse is well-positioned for long-term growth driven by the expected increase in global demand for nuclear power,” said Gitzel. “In 2024, we expect our share of its adjusted EBITDA to be between C$445 million and C$510 million. Further, over the next five years, we expect its adjusted EBITDA will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6% to 10%.”

On the mining side, Cameco is planning to produce 18 million lb. of uranium oxide (U₃O₈) at each of the McArthur River-Key Lake and the Cigar Lake mines this year. Reserves saw a boost of 73.4 million lb. U₃O₈ at Cigar Lake, of which Cameco’s share is 40%. The increase also has the potential to extend the mine life to 2036. The company looking ahead to expand annual production to 25 million lb. (on a 100% basis) when the time is right.

Cameco produced 17.6 million lb. U₃O₈ in 2023 (compared to 10.4 million lb. in 2022), resulting in 2023 net earnings of C$606 million (C$121 million in 2022).

In the fuel services sector, the company produced 13.3 million kg elemental uranium in 2023 (compared to 13.0 million kg in 2022), giving it net earnings of C$129 million (C$120 million in 2022).

The underwriters also have an option to purchase up to an additional 15% of the number of shares sold under the offer for a period of 30 days after the offer closes on or about Feb. 12, 2024.

Fission will use the funds to advance the exploration and development of its PLS uranium project on the southwest rim of the Athabasca Basin in Saskatchewan.

A feasibility study produced for the project was filed in March 2023 outlining a construction period of three years at a cost of C$1.16 billion to develop a mine with a 10-year life. During that time, 90.9 million lb. of uranium oxide (U₃O₈) will be produced.

The PLS has robust post-tax economics, including an internal rate of return of 27.2%, a net present value at an 8% discount of C$1.20 billion, and a payback period of 2.6 years.

The shallow, high-grade Triple R deposit is the basis of mine plan, beginning with the R780E and R840W zones. There is future opportunity to upgrade resources at the R1515W and R1620E zones, but they are not included in the current plan.

The indicated resource contains 114.9 million lb. U₃O₈ in 2.7 million tonnes of material that grades 1.94% U₃O₈. Within that resource is a probable reserve of 3.0 million tonnes grading 1.41% U₃O₈. A cut-off grade of 0.25% U₃O₈ was used. Material in the inferred category of reserves was not considered in planning the mine.

Production is targeted by 2029.

A syndicate of underwriters, led by Canaccord Genuity as sole bookrunner, will purchase approximately 6.72 million shares of the company at a price of $3.40 per share. The underwriters will also have a 15% over-allotment option valid for 30 days.

The financing represents the second of its kind carried out by Uranium Royalty over the past four months. Last October, it arranged a $30 million bought deal that priced its shares at $2.94 each.

The company’s most notable acquisition over the past year was a portfolio of royalties on US-based uranium assets from Anfield Energy (TSXV: AEC) for cash consideration of $1.5 million.

Included in the portfolio were royalties on three conventional uranium mining projects located in Utah: the San Rafael project operated by Western Uranium & Vanadium (CSE: WUC), the Whirlwind project and the Energy Queen project, both operated by Energy Fuels (TSX: EFR).

Also included was an in-situ recovery project, the Dewey Burdock located in South Dakota, operated by enCore Energy (NASDAQ: EU) (TSXV: EU).

The company, which became public in December 2019, now holds a portfolio of more than 20 royalties on uranium projects across the US and Canada.

Shares of Uranium Royalty were down 7.5% by 11:40 a.m. ET on the NASDAQ. The stock traded at $3.30, within a 52-week range of $1.81 and $3.76, capitalizing the company at $372 million.

Kazatomprom lowered its guidance for production for this year by 12% to 14%. The company, listed in London and controlled by the Kazakhstan government, had warned in January that it was likely to fall short of its output goals over the next two years.

Paladin Energy Ltd. shares jumped as much as 7.4% in Sydney and Boss Energy Ltd. was up as much as 8.1%. A couple of smaller miners surged even more: Deep Yellow Ltd., which has projects in Australia and Namibia, soared more than 18%, while Bannerman Energy Ltd. climbed as much as 8.3%.

The production warning is the latest in a series of supply setbacks — including a coup in Niger last year that disrupted shipments to Europe — that have pushed spot uranium prices to 15-year highs. That’s happening amid a revival of interest in nuclear power as governments try to decarbonize their economies to meet net zero targets.

The reduction in output from Kazakhstan “just leaves the market in even more of a deficit than it already is,” said Matt Griffin, co-portfolio manager of Australian small companies at Maple Brown Abbott Ltd. There’s unlikely to be any impact on Australian production, but “prices are going to be higher across the board,” he said.

Boss Energy and Paladin, both based in Perth, are the two best-performing stocks on Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index this year, rising 48% and 39%, respectively.

Uranium miners in other parts of the world also rose following the Kazatomprom announcement. CGN Mining Co. advanced as much as 8.2% in Hong Kong, while Cameco Corp. closed up 5.9% in New York on Thursday. The Global X Uranium ETF, which tracks the performance of several miners, jumped 6.2% on Thursday to the highest level since 2014.

(By Carmeli Argana)

The decision, made by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), comes almost a year after the government of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida vowed to subsidize up to half the cost of mine development and smelting projects for lithium, manganese, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earths.

Japan is the world’s third-largest consumer of uranium, after the United States and China, but it has no domestic production and relies entirely on imports from countries such as Australia, Canada and Kazakhstan. 

According to METI, Japan’s uranium reserves are estimated at 6,600 tonnes, which could meet internal demand for about six years. 

Up until the Fukushima accident in 2011, Japan was generating some 30% of electricity from its reactors and this was expected to increase to at least 40% by 2017. The plan is now for uranium to supply at least 20% of the nation’s needs by 2030, data from the World’s Nuclear Association shows.

Since 2015, 11 reactors have been restarted and another 16 are waiting for approval.

The inclusion of uranium in the list of critical minerals will allow Japan to allocate more funds and resources for uranium-related research and development, as well as to strengthen its cooperation with other countries that share its interest in securing a stable supply of the mineral.

BMO analysts said they expected the move to lead to overseas investment from Japanese trading houses. They also noted there should be some potential investment in enrichment capacity to reduce dependence on Russia and China.

While public opposition and legal challenges to nuclear power in Japan remain strong, some experts argue uranium is essential for Japan to achieve its goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

At the end of 2023, the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners reached a combined $1.42 trillion, up a healthy, if far from spectacular $48.7 billion over the course of 2023. Mining’s top tier is also worth $330 billion less than in March 2022.

Metal and mineral markets are volatile at the best of times – the nickel, cobalt and lithium price collapse in 2023 was extreme but not entirely unprecedented. Rare earth producers, platinum group metal watchers, iron ore followers, and gold and silver bugs for that matter, have been through worse.

Mining companies have become better at navigating choppy waters and as a whole the majors performed fairly consistently last year despite geopolitical and market turmoil, but within the ranking, 2023 fortunes were made and lost over what seemed like days.

The forced closure of one of the world’s biggest copper mines – and the subsequent collapse of owner First Quantum Minerals stock – served as a stark reminder of the outsized risks miners face over and above market swings.

Panama root canal

After months of protests and political pressure, at the end of November the Panama government ordered the closure of First Quantum Minerals’ Cobre Panama mine following a ruling by the Supreme Court that declared the mining contract for the operation unconstitutional.

Public figures, including climate activist Greta Thunberg and Hollywood actor Leonardo Di Caprio backed the protests and shared a video calling for the “mega mine” to cease operations, which quickly went viral. 

That mining cobre is at the nexus of the green energy transition is clearly an irony lost on those trying to save the world.  FQM is seeking arbitration and completely winding down operations will take time, but a reopening of Cobre Panama is not on the cards. 

From 25th position in the ranking at the end of March 2022 and a valuation well above $20 billion, the November-December sell off saw FQM drop out of the top tier altogether, ending 2023 at number 58 with a market cap below $6 billion. 

Cobre Panama supplied more than 40% of the company’s revenue, and with nickel prices plummeting FQM has also been forced to suspend operations at its Raventhorpe mine in Australia. 

Amid the inevitable takeover rumours now in circulation, shares in the Vancouver-based company have rallied in 2024, but still not enough to reenter the top 50.

No. 12 with a bullet 

If 2023 was an annus horribilis for FQM it was mirabilis for Amman Mineral Internasional. Stock in the Indonesian firm surged by 269% from its July debut in Jakarta to reach a market capitalisation of more than $30 billion at the end of last year – and number 12 in the ranking. 

That valuation is quite an achievement on annual revenue of $2 billion no matter how fat margins are at the company’s Batu Hijau copper and gold mine.  Batu Hijau is the third largest mine worldwide in terms of copper equivalent output (but no match for Cobre Panama when it comes to the orange metal alone)  and has been in production since the turn of the millennium. Amman is also developing the adjacent Elang project on the island of Sumbawa. 

Amman Minerals’ ascent has minted at least six new billionaires and the stock appears to be building on its success in 2024, rising by double digits in January already.

Indonesia’s other major mining IPO, Harita Nickel, was on a different trajectory altogether. After listing in April and raising $672m, the company has had a tough go of it and the stock has shed more than 38% since then as nickel prices continue to decline.

Shiny gold, dull silver, tarnished PGMs

The price of gold hit an all-time record on December 1, 2023.  But bullion’s best ever level passed without the usual fanfare and despite bullish indications for 2024, gold mining stocks did not exactly storm the rankings of the most valuable miners.

Over the course of 2023 gold and royalty companies on the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners added a collective $20.8 billion in market cap. 

And judging by gold miners’ performance so far this year, gold above $2,000 is not providing enough support. Newmont is already down 17%, Barrick has shed 13% and Agnico Eagle shareholders are 9% poorer. 

The number of precious metals companies in the top 50 has also been relatively stable over the years. With Newmont’s absorption of Newcrest now complete, the open slot was taken up by Kinross, which spent a few years in the wilderness. 

Anglogold Ashanti was just edged out by Jiangxi Copper for position number 50 on the last trading days of 2023, but based on its performance so far in 2024 the London-listed company is already back among the top tier. Indeed Anglogold is the only major gold player in the black year to date.

Silver has not been able to ride gold’s coattails and the top 50 has not had a silver specialist for a few years after Fresnillo dropped out (now at #61) and while Pan American Silver has come close in recent years at the end of last year it made it to #58 only. 

The exit of platinum and palladium majors like Sibanye Stillwater and Impala Platinum, now both valued at less than $4 billion, made space for Royal Gold to reenter at 47 at the end of last year, up from 57th in 2022. 

After a dismal 2023, the sole remaining PGM specialist Anglo American Platinum looks likely to lose more ground this quarter as palladium and platinum prices continue to slide into the new year.

Not too tough at the top 

London-listed Anglo American has had a rough year in part due to its exposure to platinum group metals and control of AngloPlat, and is now valued at $30 billion after peaking at $70 billion in March 2021.  

Were it not for the London-listed company’s iron ore operations, the 40%-plus slump in share value may have been deeper. Rumours that Glencore may be sniffing around now that the Swiss behemoth’s bid for all of Teck Resources has soured is also keeping Anglo from falling further down the rankings .  

Investors in Anglo, with a history going back more than a hundred years on the South African gold and diamond fields, have had a particularly wild ride over the last few years. In January 2016, Anglo’s market cap fell below $5 billion after it came close to suffocating under a pile of debt.  

Against expectations, iron ore seems to be holding above $120 a tonne, Chinese property bankruptcies and Beijing’s tepid stimulus response notwithstanding. 

Iron ore’s resilience despite Chinese troubles has also kept the share prices of the other diversified majors, which make their fattest profits from the steelmaking ingredient, from skidding. 

The top 10 mining companies have been able to keep their share of the total above 50% for a few years now. Not quite the magnificent seven, but size does matter in mining, particularly when access to capital is no longer a headache but a migraine. 

Expectations of another active year of M&A in the sector is likely to make the Top 50 top-heavier, especially now that it’s painfully obvious just how one-commodity companies like the lithium stocks can so easily be derailed. Coal miners’ strong 2023 suggests there are still exceptional minerals that prove the rule.   

Lithium losers 

After defying gravity early on, the combined losses for lithium miners in the top 50 climbed to nearly $30 billion in market cap over the 12 month period. Four counters occupy the worst performance table for 2023. 

The M&A drama surrounding Liontown, Albermarle and Hancock Prospecting turned out to be a soap opera and Chile’s move to take control of its lithium industry now appears far less consequential than feared.

Despite the precipitous decline in lithium prices in 2023, after hitting all time highs above $80,000 a tonne in November 2022, none of the battery metal miners’ stock performance was dire enough to drop out of the Top 50.

The merger of Livent and Allkem to form Arcadium Lithium could in fact up lithium mining’s representation in the ranking to seven should Pilbara Minerals’ January bleeding be stanched. But with lithium prices far from stabilizing, the battery metal’s presence in the top 50 may fade further. 

Pilbara Minerals, which unlike its peers was still able to show share price gains last year,  joined the Top 50 last year, bringing the number of companies based in the Western Australia capital to five, surpassing the tally of Vancouver, BC as the top home base in the ranking. 

With the exit of First Quantum, three mining companies in the top 50 call Vancouver home while the return of Kinross saw the ranks of Toronto-headquartered miners move back up to four.  

Nuclear options

Uranium prices more than doubled during 2023 and recently hit triple digits for the first time in 16 years. The breakthrough for the nuclear fuel comes after a decade in the doldrums following the Fukushima disaster in Japan.

Canada’s Cameco made the best quarterly performer list once again in Q4 and after doubling in market worth in 2023.  The Saskatoon-based company now sits at no 23 in the ranking after jumping 22 places since end-2022.    

The value of shares in Kazatomprom, the world number one uranium producer, topped $10 billion at the end of 2023, placing it at position 38.  Until last year the state-owned Kazakh company was outside earshot of the Top 50 since its dual-listing in London and Astana in 2018.  

None of the smaller uranium companies are likely to pierce the top 50 by themselves, but combinations among the rank and file may edge in when countries aiming to ditch fossil fuels stop thinking they can have their yellowcake and eat it too.

*NOTES:

Source: MINING.COM, Morningstar, GoogleFinance, company reports. Trading data from primary-listed exchange at December 28 2023 to January 2, 2024 where applicable, currency cross-rates January 2, 2024. 

Percentage change based on US$ market cap difference, not share price change in local currency.

As with any ranking, criteria for inclusion are contentious. We decided to exclude unlisted and state-owned enterprises at the outset due to a lack of information. That, of course, excludes giants like Chile’s Codelco, Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining, which owns the world’s largest gold mine, Eurochem, a major potash firm, and a number of entities in China and developing countries around the world.

Another central criterion was the depth of involvement in the industry before an enterprise can rightfully be called a mining company.

For instance, should smelter companies or commodity traders that own minority stakes in mining assets be included, especially if these investments have no operational component or warrant a seat on the board?

This is a common structure in Asia and excluding these types of companies removed well-known names like Japan’s Marubeni and Mitsui, Korea Zinc and Chile’s Copec. 

Levels of operational or strategic involvement and size of shareholding were other central considerations. Do streaming and royalty companies that receive metals from mining operations without shareholding qualify or are they just specialised financing vehicles? We included Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals on the basis of their deep involvement in the industry.

Vertically integrated concerns like Alcoa and energy companies such as Shenhua Energy or Bayan Resources where power, ports and railways make up a large portion of revenues pose a problem. The revenue mix also tends to change alongside volatile coal prices. Same goes for battery makers like CATL which is increasingly moving upstream, but where mining still makes up a small portion of its valuation.  

Another consideration is diversified companies such as Anglo American with separately listed majority-owned subsidiaries. We’ve included Angloplat in the ranking but excluded Kumba Iron Ore in which Anglo has a 70% stake to avoid double counting. Similarly we excluded Hindustan Zinc which is listed separately but majority owned by Vedanta.

Many steelmakers own and often operate iron ore and other metal mines, but in the interest of balance and diversity we excluded the steel industry, and with that many companies that have substantial mining assets including giants like ArcelorMittal, Magnitogorsk, Ternium, Baosteel and many others.

Head office refers to operational headquarters wherever applicable, for example BHP and Rio Tinto are shown as Melbourne, Australia, but Antofagasta is the exception that proves the rule. We consider the company’s HQ to be in London, where it has been listed since the late 1800s.

Please let us know of any errors, omissions, deletions or additions to the ranking or suggest a different methodology.

Unfortunately, that doesn’t bode well for a sharp turnaround in 2024. Dampening that outlook further is the string of negative news over the last week.

Mining billionaire Andrew Forests’ privately owned Wyloo Metals announced a shutdown of its nickel operations in Western Australia due to falling prices. Lithium giant Albemarle (NYSE: ALB) revealed job cuts and a trimming of its capital expenditure. It also unloaded its stake in Liontown (ASX: LTR) after last years’ failed takeover bid. LTR’s stock price has now plunged more than 44% since the new year.

Even the insiders have lost faith. Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) CEO, Dale Henderson, sold around 1.2 million shares following the company’s latest earnings result.

But to get a handle on what 2024 looks like, we should first clarify why green metal stocks sold down so heavily in 2023.

You see, mega renewable energy projects are expensive. So too are the mining developments which supply the raw materials for these metal intensive projects. Given we’ve just embarked on one of the most hawkish monetary regimes in modern history, it explains why the sector plummeted last year.

But according to the former chief of commodities at Goldman Sachs, Jeff Currie, ‘green’ metals could return with a vengeance this year. That’s based primarily on expected rate cuts.

You see, rising rates have diminished the public’s appetite for extravagant renewable mega-projects. It’s perhaps one of the reasons why crude came back into focus last year. Fossil fuels are energy dense, making them a relatively cheap option. We could also add uranium to the list, another energy-packed commodity that can supply reliable, base load power.

But the key point from Currie is this: in a high-cost environment, traditional energies reign. He labels them the ‘brown’ commodities.

So why could 2024 see a major pivot back to ‘green’ metals?

It’s simple really. The idea of capital-intensive green energy projects becomes a difficult pill to swallow in an economy struggling against the rising cost of living.

This observation seems rather obvious in hindsight, just look at 2023. As the narrative of ‘higher for longer’ took effect last year, Brent crude surged to $94 per barrel and uranium erupted into multi-year highs.

Meanwhile, metals tied to the green energy transition like lithium, rare earths, and graphite, fell through the floor, eliminating most of the gains that emerged during the early 2020s.

But, with rate cuts looming, could the narrative from 2023 make a dramatic U-turn? In other words, will investment flood out of the brown commodities back toward the green? It’s certainly possible.

We saw oil and gas stocks tumble in the final weeks of 2023 as expectations of rate cuts grew in the US. Large-cap lithium producers then (briefly) emerged from heavily sold-off levels.

But don’t expect a smooth recovery in the green metal market. We’re living through a period of historically elevated geopolitical tension.

Right now, the Middle East conflict is ripe for escalation. That means crude oil prices could erupt, bringing an inflationary spike.

We’ve already seen several prominent shipping companies divert vessels away from the Red Sea following attacks in December by the Houthis in Yemen on foreign cargo vessels and oil tankers.

With ships re-routing around the Cape of Good Hope, on the southern tip of Africa, delivery times have increased by up to two weeks. With that comes higher freight costs and more inflationary pressures on the global economy.

Geopolitics is a key reason why we could see a continuation of the arm wrestle between inflation versus deflation this year. There’s no clear path that signals one will win over the other.

But despite the geopolitical risks, there are potentially huge opportunities on offer.

According to the Economist, 2024 is set to be the biggest election year in history. Almost half the world’s population is lining up to vote, from India to the US. This is going to be a colossal year in politics. With incumbent governments looking to extend their time in office, expect extravagant infrastructure announcements this year. Renewables could be a major focus.

So, how do you prepare a portfolio for potential boom conditions in a year that promises plenty of geo-and-political instability? Focus on beaten-down sectors. As Rick Rule says, you’re either a contrarian or a victim.

Right now, green metals have lost their flavour. But that could offer ripe pickings for investors betting against the herd.

James Cooper runs the commodities investment service Diggers and Drillers. You can also follow him on X (Twitter) @JCooperGeo.

The country will also take stock of existing mining licenses, according to a memo from the mining ministry seen by Bloomberg.

Niger is among the world’s top producers of uranium. France’s Orano SA, Toronto-based Global Atomic and China Natural Nuclear Corporation are among companies operating in the country.

The mining sector, which also includes gold and iron ore, is an area of “national concern,” according to the government.

“We’re trying to figure out who holds the mining licenses and what reforms need to be implemented in order for the state to increase its profits,” Fatimata Korgom, the deputy secretary general at the mining ministry said in a voice note shared by a junta spokesman.

Niger was hit with sanctions following a July 26 military coup that left the country cut off from the regional bond market and froze its accounts at the regional central bank.

The country recently missed a $38.7 million payment on a commercial bond, bringing the total missed principal and interest payments since the putsch to $485 million.

Last year, the country was forced to cut the 2023 budget by 40% after its Western allies suspended aid.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is currently visiting Africa, told Radio France Internationale that all the cooperation suspended by Washington could be put back into play if the junta restored democracy and released ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.

(By Katarina Hoije and Baudelaire Mieu)

Operations at McClean Lake, owned by the namesake JV (MLJV) in which Orano is the operator and has a 77.5% stake, were suspended in 2008 in response to weak uranium prices.

The partners continued to explore the licence and invested in proprietary mining method named SABRE, which is designed to selectively extract high-grade uranium ores from surface. 

Mining is planned to restart at the McClean North deposit in 2025, with a target of about 800,000 pounds of uranium that year, the partners said. Activities this year focused on readying the site and equipment for continuous commercial operations, they noted.

MLJV will also install eight pilot holes for the first mining cavities planned for excavation.

“The successful mining test of the SABRE method in 2021 provided the MLJV with important information about the productivity and cost of the operation,” Denison’s president and chief executive David Cates said.

“This information suggests an incentive price meaningfully lower than current uranium prices, which has provided the JV with a strong basis to make a restart decision for mining,” Cates added.

The companies noted they have identified the availability of around 3 million pounds of yellow cake for potential additional production from a combination of the McClean North and Caribou deposits during the 2026-2030 period.

BMO Capital Markets uranium analyst Alexander Pearce said in a note on Wednesday the decision to restart McClean Lake was positive for Denison as it could help with modest near-term cash flow as it develops Wheeler River. 

“The announcement also demonstrates that current spot prices are supportive of brownfield restarts,” he said, adding that a sizable near-term supply deficit is still expected considering the time it takes to bring restarts on. 

Orano Canada’s President and chief executive, Jim Corman, said the JV’s current ability to capitalize on the strengthening uranium and nuclear markets is the result of a long-term investment in research and development to secure continued activities at McClean Lake.

The property, about 750 km north of Saskatoon, consists of four mineral leases covering an area of 1,147 hectares and 13 mineral claims over an area of 3,111 hectares.

Uranium prices have hit their highest in more than 16 years in recent days after the world’s largest miner of the nuclear fuel, Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom (LON: KAP), highlighted production risks. The commodity’s bonanza is likely to continue prompting the restart of mothballed capacity.

CanAlaska will trade its PW (Patterson West) property for F3’s Hobo Lake property. Both land packages are located in the Athabasca Basin of Saskatchewan.

The north end of the PW property is located 7.5 km to the south of F3’s JR zone high-grade uranium discovery on its PLN property and it is immediately to the west and contiguous with the F3 Broach Lake property, on the southwestern edge of the basin.

The company will incorporate the 30.1-sq.-km. of PW property claims into its Broach Lake property, which together with the PLN and Minto properties will collectively become the PLN project. CanAlaska will receive 37 mineral claims totaling the 148.5 sq. km. of the Hobo Lake project.

F3 discovered the JR zone in 2022 with a hole that returned 15 metres grading 6.97% uranium oxide (U₃O₈), including 5.5 metres at 18.5% U₃O₈, and including 1 metre at 59.2% U₃O₈.

Each company will retain a 2.5% net smelter returns royalty on all production from the property it swapped, and the other company will have a repurchase right for 1% of the NSR royalty from the royalty holder for C$3 million.

F3 shares were down 2.2% to C$0.43 apiece on Monday, valuing the company at C$187 million. Its shares traded in a 52-week range of C$0.25 and C$0.50.

Shares in CanAlaska were up 1.7% to C$0.60 apiece, giving the company a market capitalization of C$89.6 million. The shares traded in a 52-week window of C$0.29 and C$0.65.

Before the official inductions, MC and Northern Miner Group president Anthony Vaccaro recapped the highs and lows of 2023 — a difficult year that saw big shifts in geopolitics, terrible markets for miners, and sliding metals prices (with the exception of uranium and gold). 

Vaccaro, serving as MC for the fifth year running, got things rolling with a verbal and pictorial journey through the year that was, while reflecting on mining’s deep interconnection with global affairs, and playfully reimagining its public image. He also touched on the profound impact each of the night’s inductees have had on the industry in Canada and beyond. 

Watch the video below for his introduction to the 36th annual CMHF induction ceremony.

Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom earlier this month said it may cut its 2024 production plan due to difficulties with the availability of sulphuric acid needed to produce uranium.

Uranium oxide prices, under pressure for years after the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 battered demand, picked up momentum in August 2021 when disruptions caused by Covid lockdowns hit supplies and created shortages.

They have since rocketed 250%, and are up 15% so far this month to their highest since November 2007 at $106 a lb.

“After a decade of dormancy, uranium suddenly came to life in mid-2021, rising above its long-standing cap at $30 a lb, which also happens to be the global industry’s marginal cost of mined production,” said Liberum analyst Tom Price.

Marginal costs of production are a reference to the costs incurred per lb of additional output by the highest-cost producers.

Liberum forecasts a 300,000 lb deficit this year, down from a shortfall of 1.1 million lbs in 2023, and estimates 2024 demand at 174.7 million lbs, up from 170.4 million lbs last year.

However, “while we recognize upside price risk, we also expect Kazatomprom and Cameco to eventually reactivate their dormant mine capability, as the price rallies – to secure market share and deter entrants,” Price said.

He did not give a timeline for re-starting mothballed capacity.

Toronto-listed Cameco is expected to be the world’s second largest uranium producer this year after Kazatomprom.

Uranium purchases by companies including the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust and Yellow Cake have contributed to the price surge in recent months, but this, industry sources say, would be due to demand from investors looking at supply/demand imbalances.

Resistance to nuclear power after Fukushima remains, but the need to cut emissions and a growing belief that it would make the energy transition safer and cheaper is expected to drive uranium demand higher over the coming years.

“Uranium is having a moment on the demand side. It is cost effective. If it isn’t green, it is certainly green adjacent,” said Jay Tatum, portfolio manager at Valent Asset Management.

“It would be hard to call a top in uranium prices, but five, six, seven years down the line, I don’t think it will be making new highs.”

(Reporting by Pratima Desai; Editing by Jan Harvey)

The operation’s output would equal 31.2 million lb. and could produce uranium at $75 per lb. U₃O₈, according to the preliminary economic assessment (PEA).

The PEA pegs the project’s post-tax net present value (at 8% discount) at $239 million, its internal rate of return at 56% and with initial capital costs of $47.5 million.

“As a late-stage development project located in the western United States, Churchrock is well positioned to address some of the potential nuclear utility security of supply concerns clearly reflected in spot uranium prices which have risen dramatically and now exceed C$90 per lb.,” Laramide CEO Marc Henderson said in a news release.

The assessment comes as the price of uranium, which sat at $92.50 per lb. on Thursday has risen above its post-Fukushima slump and reached levels not seen since 2007. The increase, driven by several factors including rising demand for the nuclear metal as countries try to wean themselves off fossil fuels has helped push some uranium projects towards production.

Energy Fuels (TSX: EFR; NYSE: UUUU) last month announced the start of production at its mines in neighbouring Arizona and Utah.

Total capital costs for Churchrock, located near the namesake town in northwestern New Mexico, come to $270.1 million including sustaining costs to year 37 and reclamation and closure.

Life-of-mine operating costs, which include uranium recovery, on-site yellowcake production and hauling costs to Laramide’s Crownpoint processing plant come to $909.4 million.

The PEA assumes a uranium recovery rate of about 68%, and development of a steady state, 3,000-gallon-per-minute ISR operation that would include satellite plants at Churchrock, the Crownpoint plant and associated wells.

Churchrock hosts 33.9 million inferred tons grading 0.075% U₃O₈ containing 50.8 million lb. U₃O₈, according to a 2017 resource estimate. That resource was based on 569,232.9 metres of drilling across 1,694 holes conducted by previous exploration companies and Laramide, which acquired the Churchrock properties in 2017.

The New Mexico project is also among just a handful of uranium sites in North America where ISR mining is being pursued. The method involves pumping a solution through underground boreholes, where the solution separates the uranium from the rock and pumps it back to the surface for extraction. It’s generally less costly than traditional hard rock mining, doesn’t require the digging of large pits and leaves fewer tailings. 

The Sprott Uranium Miners ETF has climbed 16% to start the year, ahead of the S&P 500 Index, which is down 0.6% to start the year, following a 52% rise in 2023. The fund’s top performers include Premier American Uranium Inc., up 90% so far in January, and CanAlaska Uranium Ltd., up 55%. Similarly, the Global X Uranium ETF has climbed 11% to open 2024.

Larger, established miners are also up double digits. The largest North American uranium miner, Cameco Corp., has climbed 13% in Toronto, extending a run that has the stock up 95% over the last 12 months.

In a report Wednesday, Sprott market strategist Paul Wong and ETF product manager Jacob White described 2023 as “a blockbuster” year for uranium miners, one where the spot price of the reactive metal climbed 88.5% to end the year at $91.09. “The long-term fundamentals for uranium are bullish, and price momentum is likely to continue into 2024,” they wrote.

The bull case for the reactive metal, according to Wong and White: Demand has begun outstripping supply and “the era of inventory destocking, the primary source of secondary supplies, is over.”

They note 22 countries have pledged to triple nuclear capacity by 2050. At the same time, there are supply concerns. With the passage in 2023 of the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act by the US House of Representatives, Sprott expects utilities to steer clear of deals with Russian firms. Wong and White also point to the recent coup in Niger and Kazakhstan’s “chronic inability to meet production guidance” as adding to the uncertainty surrounding supply security.

“As these gain traction, uranium and uranium miners may be the ultimate beneficiaries, especially in light of the fundamental supply-demand deficit in the market,” they add.

(By Geoffrey Morgan)

Read More: Uranium miners surge on $500 million US enrichment push

The agreement gives Denison the option to earn up to a 75% interest in Grounded’s Kindersley lithium brine project in western Saskatchewan, the companies said in a joint news release on Tuesday. Denison, focused on uranium further north in the Athabasca Basin will pay up to C$15.1 million for the interest, in cash payments of up to C$3.1 million. It will also fund project costs of up to C$12 million through an earn-in option.

Grounded Lithium shares were up 33% at C$0.10 apiece at mid-day in Toronto on the option deal, valuing the company at C$7.6 million. Its shares have traded between C$0.07 and C$0.50 over the past year.

The cash is expected to offer more than enough funding for a field pilot at the Kindersley lithium project (KLP) that both companies plan to advance. Kindersley, located just north of the namesake town near the Alberta border, sits on top of the Leduc/Duperow formations that underlie the Prairie provinces.

“This is very significant for us in terms of helping us unlock the value of our project,” Grounded CEO Gregg Smith told The Northern Miner in an interview. “Denison is also doing first-of-a-kind uranium mining in Saskatchewan, where they’re doing in-situ extraction of uranium. That really reduces the cost. It’s a very innovative approach to it and it will be first of its kind in Canada. It kind of goes to the heart of what their company is.”

Denison CEO and president David Cates said in a statement the company views lithium as a complementary mineral to Denison’s core uranium business, with both identified as critical minerals for the clean energy transition.

“Combining our deep local technical capabilities with the Grounded team’s experience on KLP has the potential to create an incredible environment to incubate the KLP to emerge as a premier lithium project in a top mining jurisdiction,” he said.

The investment from Denison comes as momentum builds for lithium brine projects on the Prairies, despite a drop in lithium prices, with Grounded having released a strong preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for Kindersley last July that showed it could produce 11,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide over a 20-year life. EMP Metals (CSE: EMPS) is also advancing a lithium brine project in Saskatchewan, along with E3 Lithium (TSXV: ETL) and Volt Lithium (TSXV: VLT), in neighbouring Alberta.

Low-cost solution extraction

Denison’s investment in lithium comes as prices for the battery metal have tanked, while prices of its principal commodity, uranium, have risen to highs not seen since 2007. On Monday, the spot price hit $103 per lb. The price increase is being driven by rising demand for nuclear energy projects and limited supply.

Denison is also emerging as a potential pioneer of in-situ recovery (ISR) mining in the Athabasca Basin, after a final set of field tests last November showed it could be successfully deployed on a commercial scale at the Wheeler River project. ISR involves pumping a solution underground, where it separates uranium from the ore and is later pumped back to the surface. It costs less than underground mining, doesn’t require digging pits and has a smaller environmental footprint.

In that test, Denison recovered 14,400 lb. of uranium oxide (U3O8) in solution in the leaching and neutralization phases, and recovered over 99.99% of the contained uranium in the solution management phase. Previous tests going back to 2019 also returned positive results, including one in 2022 that Denison called ‘history in the making.’

While both processes involve pumping a solution to the surface, Grounded uses direct lithium extraction to draw lithium-containing brine from old oil wells underground. The extracted solution is purified in a surface plant to bring out the high-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide.

Canaccord Genuity analyst Katie Lachapelle told The Northern Miner that if Denison successfully obtains its permits to mine, Wheeler River could open up new possibilities for uranium projects.

“It’ll unlock a lot of 20, 50, 60 million lb. deposits in Canada that otherwise wouldn’t have been considered super economic, or that you wouldn’t want to put the capital into building a shaft. So, I think it’s a game changer,” she said.

Kindersley details

Kindersley’s first phase has an after-tax net present value (at 8% discount) of $1 billion, an internal rate of return of 48.5% and at initial capital costs of $335 million, with a payback period of 3.7 years.

KLP hosts 586,044 measured tonnes of lithium hydroxide, 525,651 indicated tonnes and 3.6 million inferred tonnes, all grading at 74 mg of lithium per litre.

The new deal entails Denison increasing its cash payments to Grounded from C$800,000 in the first phase of Kindersley to C$3.1 million in the third, in line with an increase in Denison’s interest from 30% to 75%. Expenditures for the project will generally be wholly funded by Denison.

The agreement will last until Denison opts to acquire its working interest and convert it to a formal joint venture, or until either June 30, 2028 or another date agreed by the companies.

Denison has also bought a 5% gross overriding royalty on KLP for C$800,000, which would drop to 2% after all approvals for the project are received, and be removed entirely 15 months after the earn-in agreement closes.

The two companies have established an area of mutual interest for any lands acquired within 10 km of any properties contained within Kindersley that are prospective for lithium.

“Their investment is helping us de-risk by putting in place the pilot,” Smith said. “That allows us to fine tune our engineering studies and produce the feasibility so then we can start to march forward towards commerciality.”

Denison shares were down 2.1% to C$2.74, giving it a market capitalization of C$2.4 billion. Its shares traded between C$1.28 and C$2.82 over a 52-week window.

The recovered uranium will be processed at the fully operational Irigaray central processing plant (CPP), which has a current licensed capacity of 2.5 million pounds of uranium oxide (U₃O₈) per year. The Irigaray plant is the hub central to four fully permitted ISR projects in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming, including Christensen Ranch.

First production is expected during August of this year and will be funded with existing cash on the company’s balance sheet, UEC said in a news release Tuesday, adding that it will provide additional information on the expected volumes for the first year in the coming months.

Shares of UEC were up by 5.5% as of 11:50 a.m. ET on the Christensen Ranch restart announcement, giving the company a market capitalization of $3.2 billion.

“This is the moment we have been working towards for over a decade, having acquired and further developed leading US and Canadian assets with an exceptional, deeply experienced operations team,” UEC chief executive Amir Adnani said in the statement.

“Uranium market fundamentals are the best the industry has witnessed, and various supply shocks have accelerated the bull market with recent prices eclipsing the $100 per pound level. With this exciting backdrop, we are pleased to announce our production restart in Wyoming.”

As UEC’s strategy has been to remain 100% unhedged, uranium produced from Christensen Ranch will be sold at prevailing spot market price, which was $106/lb. U₃O₈ as of January 15, 2024, the company said.

The Christensen Ranch project was part of the Wyoming ISR asset portfolio anchored by the Irigaray plant that UEC acquired from Russia’s Rosatom in late 2021, as part of efforts to repatriate these assets to US ownership.

It now forms part of UEC’s Wyoming hub and spoke ISR platform that consists of 12 projects with a combined measured and indicated resource of 66.2 million lb. contained within 58.5 million tonnes grading 0.069% U₃O₈ and an inferred resource of 15.1 million lb. within 10.9 million tonnes grading 0.064% U₃O₈.

The Wyoming resource, which was reported in 2022 following UEC’s acquisition of the Uranium One Americas and Anfield Energy assets, represents the largest S-K 1300 uranium resources reported in the US.

Adding in the company’s South Texas hub and spoke ISR platform would expand this S-K 1300-compliant resource base even further, with over 75 million lb. of measured and indicated resources and 25 million lb. of inferred resources.

The planned scoping follows up on the promise in a previous evaluation that identified meaningful upside through the inclusion of nearby uranium resources at Lake Way and Centipede-Millipede satellite deposits.

The new study will evaluate whether the integration of both deposits to the company’s planned Lake Maitland operation extends the potential processing of high-grade uranium resource well beyond the seventh year. Toro had previously said that the standalone Lake Maitland operation is expected to process high grade material for up to seven years.

Executive chair Richard Homsany said that, alongside the extension study, Toro is also continuing pilot plant design work for the project located 105 km south-east of the Wiluna township and 730 km north-east of Perth.

“We are pleased that strengthening uranium market conditions continue as we develop and seek to maximize the value of the Wiluna uranium project, especially our evaluation of extending our Lake Maitland uranium-vanadium processing operation,” Homsany said in the statement.

According to 2023 figures by the World Nuclear Association, Australia’s known uranium resources are the world’s largest – almost one-third of the globe’s total. The country does not use nuclear power itself, but it’s the world’s fourth producer of the radioactive material, behind Kazakhstan, Canada and Namibia.

The spot price for uranium has been hitting records highs in past weeks and climbed to just over $103 per pound on Monday, according to Numerco, a UK-based spot price for uranium. This level, not seen since 2007, follows a roughly 90% price gain for the metal in 2023 in a market that has struggled to keep up with fresh demand.

Last week, prices for uranium hit an almost 15-year high after the world’s largest producer, Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom (LON: KAP), warned it was likely to fall short of its output targets over the next two years.

The miner cited shortages of sulfuric acid and construction delays at newly developed deposits as the main factors behind ongoing production challenges, which it said could persist into 2025. A detailed assessment of the potential impacts on output will be released in a trading update by Feb. 1, it added.

“Despite the ongoing active search for alternative sources of sulfuric acid supply, current forecasts indicate that the company may find it difficult to achieve 90% production levels compared to subsoil use contract levels,” Kazatomprom said in the statement.

Sulfuric acid is a favourite among producers to extract uranium from the raw ore due to its low-cost and efficiency for different types of ores.

Kazatomprom noted its guidance for next year could also be affected if supply snags continue throughout 2024 and if it isn’t able to comply with scheduled construction works.

The spot price of the radioactive metal has more-than doubled in 2023 and it is currently trading at $97.45 a pound — still far from the triple-digit figures achieved in 2007 and the fallout after the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan.

The price increase comes as 24 nations, including the United States, Japan, Canada, Britain and France pledged last month in Dubai at the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, known as COP28, to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050.

China, which wasn’t part of that promise, still leads global nuclear plant construction with plans to nearly double capacity to 100 gigawatts by the end of this decade. The Asian country has 22 of 58 plants being built worldwide.

Recent legislation in the US could also affect uranium prices, even sooner than other factors. Seeking to cut its reliance on Russia, which supplies more than one-fifth of its uranium, Congress passed a bill in December that would require the US to source a portion of its nuclear fuel domestically. The bill calls for 20 tonnes of HALEU — high-assay low enriched uranium fuel needed to run most advanced reactors in the country — to come from domestic sources by the end of 2027. It now awaits President Joe Biden’s signature.

Bank of America and Berenberg Bank said this week in separate research notes that continued tightness in the uranium market could push prices over $100 in coming days.

At the end of 2023, the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners reached a combined $1.42 trillion, up a healthy, if far from spectacular $48.7 billion over the course of 2023. Mining’s top tier is also worth $330 billion less than in March 2022.

Metal and mineral markets are volatile at the best of times – the nickel, cobalt and lithium price collapse in 2023 was extreme but not entirely unprecedented. Rare earth producers, platinum group metal watchers, iron ore followers, and gold and silver bugs for that matter, have been through worse.

Mining companies have become better at navigating choppy waters and as a whole the majors performed fairly consistently last year despite geopolitical and market turmoil, but within the ranking, 2023 fortunes were made and lost over what seemed like days.

The forced closure of one of the world’s biggest copper mines – and the subsequent collapse of owner First Quantum Minerals stock – served as a stark reminder of the outsized risks miners face over and above market swings.

Panama root canal

After months of protests and political pressure, at the end of November the Panama government ordered the closure of First Quantum Minerals’ Cobre Panama mine following a ruling by the Supreme Court that declared the mining contract for the operation unconstitutional.

Public figures, including climate activist Greta Thunberg and Hollywood actor Leonardo Di Caprio backed the protests and shared a video calling for the “mega mine” to cease operations, which quickly went viral. 

That mining cobre is at the nexus of the green energy transition is clearly an irony lost on those trying to save the world.  FQM is seeking arbitration and completely winding down operations will take time, but a reopening of Cobre Panama is not on the cards. 

From 25th position in the ranking at the end of March 2022 and a valuation well above $20 billion, the November-December sell off saw FQM drop out of the top tier altogether, ending 2023 at number 58 with a market cap below $6 billion. 

Cobre Panama supplied more than 40% of the company’s revenue, and with nickel prices plummeting FQM has also been forced to suspend operations at its Raventhorpe mine in Australia. 

Amid the inevitable takeover rumours now in circulation, shares in the Vancouver-based company have rallied in 2024, but still not enough to reenter the top 50.

No. 12 with a bullet 

If 2023 was an annus horribilis for FQM it was mirabilis for Amman Mineral Internasional. Stock in the Indonesian firm surged by 269% from its July debut in Jakarta to reach a market capitalisation of more than $30 billion at the end of last year – and number 12 in the ranking. 

That valuation is quite an achievement on annual revenue of $2 billion no matter how fat margins are at the company’s Batu Hijau copper and gold mine.  Batu Hijau is the third largest mine worldwide in terms of copper equivalent output (but no match for Cobre Panama when it comes to the orange metal alone)  and has been in production since the turn of the millennium. Amman is also developing the adjacent Elang project on the island of Sumbawa. 

Amman Minerals’ ascent has minted at least six new billionaires and the stock appears to be building on its success in 2024, rising by double digits in January already.

Indonesia’s other major mining IPO, Harita Nickel, was on a different trajectory altogether. After listing in April and raising $672m, the company has had a tough go of it and the stock has shed more than 38% since then as nickel prices continue to decline.

Shiny gold, dull silver, tarnished PGMs

The price of gold hit an all-time record on December 1, 2023.  But bullion’s best ever level passed without the usual fanfare and despite bullish indications for 2024, gold mining stocks did not exactly storm the rankings of the most valuable miners.

Over the course of 2023 gold and royalty companies on the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners added a collective $20.8 billion in market cap. 

And judging by gold miners’ performance so far this year, gold above $2,000 is not providing enough support. Newmont is already down 17%, Barrick has shed 13% and Agnico Eagle shareholders are 9% poorer. 

The number of precious metals companies in the top 50 has also been relatively stable over the years. With Newmont’s absorption of Newcrest now complete, the open slot was taken up by Kinross, which spent a few years in the wilderness. 

Anglogold Ashanti was just edged out by Jiangxi Copper for position number 50 on the last trading days of 2023, but based on its performance so far in 2024 the London-listed company is already back among the top tier. Indeed Anglogold is the only major gold player in the black year to date.

Silver has not been able to ride gold’s coattails and the top 50 has not had a silver specialist for a few years after Fresnillo dropped out (now at #61) and while Pan American Silver has come close in recent years at the end of last year it made it to #58 only. 

The exit of platinum and palladium majors like Sibanye Stillwater and Impala Platinum, now both valued at less than $4 billion, made space for Royal Gold to reenter at 47 at the end of last year, up from 57th in 2022. 

After a dismal 2023, the sole remaining PGM specialist Anglo American Platinum looks likely to lose more ground this quarter as palladium and platinum prices continue to slide into the new year.

Not too tough at the top 

London-listed Anglo American has had a rough year in part due to its exposure to platinum group metals and control of AngloPlat, and is now valued at $30 billion after peaking at $70 billion in March 2021.  

Were it not for the London-listed company’s iron ore operations, the 40%-plus slump in share value may have been deeper. Rumours that Glencore may be sniffing around now that the Swiss behemoth’s bid for all of Teck Resources has soured is also keeping Anglo from falling further down the rankings .  

Investors in Anglo, with a history going back more than a hundred years on the South African gold and diamond fields, have had a particularly wild ride over the last few years. In January 2016, Anglo’s market cap fell below $5 billion after it came close to suffocating under a pile of debt.  

Against expectations, iron ore seems to be holding above $120 a tonne, Chinese property bankruptcies and Beijing’s tepid stimulus response notwithstanding. 

Iron ore’s resilience despite Chinese troubles has also kept the share prices of the other diversified majors, which make their fattest profits from the steelmaking ingredient, from skidding. 

The top 10 mining companies have been able to keep their share of the total above 50% for a few years now. Not quite the magnificent seven, but size does matter in mining, particularly when access to capital is no longer a headache but a migraine. 

Expectations of another active year of M&A in the sector is likely to make the Top 50 top-heavier, especially now that it’s painfully obvious just how one-commodity companies like the lithium stocks can so easily be derailed. Coal miners’ strong 2023 suggests there are still exceptional minerals that prove the rule.   

Lithium losers 

After defying gravity early on, the combined losses for lithium miners in the top 50 climbed to nearly $30 billion in market cap over the 12 month period. Four counters occupy the worst performance table for 2023. 

The M&A drama surrounding Liontown, Albermarle and Hancock Prospecting turned out to be a soap opera and Chile’s move to take control of its lithium industry now appears far less consequential than feared.

Despite the precipitous decline in lithium prices in 2023, after hitting all time highs above $80,000 a tonne in November 2022, none of the battery metal miners’ stock performance was dire enough to drop out of the Top 50.

The merger of Livent and Allkem to form Arcadium Lithium could in fact up lithium mining’s representation in the ranking to seven should Pilbara Minerals’ January bleeding be stanched. But with lithium prices far from stabilizing, the battery metal’s presence in the top 50 may fade further. 

Pilbara Minerals, which unlike its peers was still able to show share price gains last year,  joined the Top 50 last year, bringing the number of companies based in the Western Australia capital to five, surpassing the tally of Vancouver, BC as the top home base in the ranking. 

With the exit of First Quantum, three mining companies in the top 50 call Vancouver home while the return of Kinross saw the ranks of Toronto-headquartered miners move back up to four.  

Nuclear options

Uranium prices more than doubled during 2023 and recently hit triple digits for the first time in 16 years. The breakthrough for the nuclear fuel comes after a decade in the doldrums following the Fukushima disaster in Japan.

Canada’s Cameco made the best quarterly performer list once again in Q4 and after doubling in market worth in 2023.  The Saskatoon-based company now sits at no 23 in the ranking after jumping 22 places since end-2022.    

The value of shares in Kazatomprom, the world number one uranium producer, topped $10 billion at the end of 2023, placing it at position 38.  Until last year the state-owned Kazakh company was outside earshot of the Top 50 since its dual-listing in London and Astana in 2018.  

None of the smaller uranium companies are likely to pierce the top 50 by themselves, but combinations among the rank and file may edge in when countries aiming to ditch fossil fuels stop thinking they can have their yellowcake and eat it too.

*NOTES:

Source: MINING.COM, Morningstar, GoogleFinance, company reports. Trading data from primary-listed exchange at December 28 2023 to January 2, 2024 where applicable, currency cross-rates January 2, 2024. 

Percentage change based on US$ market cap difference, not share price change in local currency.

As with any ranking, criteria for inclusion are contentious. We decided to exclude unlisted and state-owned enterprises at the outset due to a lack of information. That, of course, excludes giants like Chile’s Codelco, Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining, which owns the world’s largest gold mine, Eurochem, a major potash firm, and a number of entities in China and developing countries around the world.

Another central criterion was the depth of involvement in the industry before an enterprise can rightfully be called a mining company.

For instance, should smelter companies or commodity traders that own minority stakes in mining assets be included, especially if these investments have no operational component or warrant a seat on the board?

This is a common structure in Asia and excluding these types of companies removed well-known names like Japan’s Marubeni and Mitsui, Korea Zinc and Chile’s Copec. 

Levels of operational or strategic involvement and size of shareholding were other central considerations. Do streaming and royalty companies that receive metals from mining operations without shareholding qualify or are they just specialised financing vehicles? We included Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals on the basis of their deep involvement in the industry.

Vertically integrated concerns like Alcoa and energy companies such as Shenhua Energy or Bayan Resources where power, ports and railways make up a large portion of revenues pose a problem. The revenue mix also tends to change alongside volatile coal prices. Same goes for battery makers like CATL which is increasingly moving upstream, but where mining still makes up a small portion of its valuation.  

Another consideration is diversified companies such as Anglo American with separately listed majority-owned subsidiaries. We’ve included Angloplat in the ranking but excluded Kumba Iron Ore in which Anglo has a 70% stake to avoid double counting. Similarly we excluded Hindustan Zinc which is listed separately but majority owned by Vedanta.

Many steelmakers own and often operate iron ore and other metal mines, but in the interest of balance and diversity we excluded the steel industry, and with that many companies that have substantial mining assets including giants like ArcelorMittal, Magnitogorsk, Ternium, Baosteel and many others.

Head office refers to operational headquarters wherever applicable, for example BHP and Rio Tinto are shown as Melbourne, Australia, but Antofagasta is the exception that proves the rule. We consider the company’s HQ to be in London, where it has been listed since the late 1800s.

Please let us know of any errors, omissions, deletions or additions to the ranking or suggest a different methodology.

The Energy Department is requesting proposals from US companies to produce a type of fuel known as high-assay low-enriched uranium, or HALEU, it said Tuesday. It plans to invest as much as $500 million in the projects and other ventures to convert HALEU into chemical precursors for nuclear fuels.

North American uranium miners including Global Atomic Corp. and NexGen Energy Ltd. rose after the announcement, while peers in Australia including Paladin Energy Ltd. and Deep Yellow Ltd. increased sharply Wednesday on prospects for higher prices. Uranium investment firm Yellow Cake Plc climbed to a record as trading opened in London, extending last year’s 65% gain.

The Biden administration is intensifying efforts to ramp up enrichment after the US House voted to approve legislation that would bar enriched-uranium imports from Russia, the country’s top foreign supplier. Although it has been held up in the Senate — and would only enter effect later this decade if turned into law — the bill has given fresh impetus to a rebound in prices for raw nuclear fuel.

Bloomberg reported last month that Tenex, a Russian state-owned uranium company, had warned American customers that the Kremlin may preemptively bar exports of its nuclear fuel if lawmakers in Washington passed the legislation. Parent company Rosatom denied that Tenex had done so.

Futures tracking spot prices for a raw form of uranium known as yellowcake hit a 15-year high Tuesday. They more than doubled last year as Western efforts to boost energy security and cut emissions sparked a global nuclear renaissance.

“The global pivot back to nuclear energy creates opportunities and challenges,” John Ciampaglia, chief executive officer of Sprott Asset Management, said earlier this month. “We need to rebuild supply chains that have long since disappeared.”

To be sure, soaring development costs have left prospective producers in a precarious position, with NuScale Power Corp. — the first company with US approval for a small nuclear reactor design — canceling plans to build a power plant in November. It fired more than a quarter of its staff this month.

One of the promises of smaller reactors is that they’re supposed to be easier to build, limiting cost overruns and delays that have commonly plagued the development of conventional large-scale reactors. A massive new Southern Co. nuclear plant in Georgia entered service in July, seven years late and with a budget that more than doubled to over $30 billion.

(By Mark Burton)

The DOE is seeking contracts for a maximum of 10 years from enrichment service companies to produce so-called high assay low enriched, or HALEU, uranium fuel that is enriched up to 20%, compared with traditional uranium fuel used in today’s reactors of about 5%.

The department has about $500 million in funding for HALEU production from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, and sought proposals late last year for additional HALEU production services. The program could be expanded in coming years, depending on congressional appropriations.

HALEU is expected to be needed for a planned generation of reactors in the works by companies including X-energy and TerraPower, but output has been delayed as the reactors are not yet built.

“It’s a chicken-or-egg sort of process,” Jon Carmack, the department’s deputy assistant secretary for nuclear fuel cycle, said in an interview. Carmack said the government needs to invest enough money to show initial demand for producers, so they will build capacity, apply for licenses and get HALEU plant design and construction projects underway.

President Joe Biden’s administration sees the new reactors and maintaining the current fleet of nuclear plants as critical for its climate change agenda. Ali Zaidi, Biden’s national climate adviser, said boosting domestic uranium supply will increase energy security, generate high-paying union jobs, and boost economic competitiveness.

Nuclear proliferation experts warn that an increased dependency on HALEU around the world could increase proliferation risks because the fuel is closer to fissile material for nuclear weapons than traditional fuel.

The only company currently selling commercial shipments of HALEU is TENEX, part of Russia’s state-owned energy company Rosatom.

Centrus Energy, the only US company with a license to produce HALEU, and which is supplying the DOE with a small amount of the fuel for demonstration purposes, was encouraged that the request for proposals could lead to more production at its plant in Ohio. Centrus “looks forward to the opportunity to compete for the funding necessary to expand our production,” said spokesperson Lindsey Geisler.

European uranium enrichment company Urenco could also eventually produce US HALEU but does not yet have a license to do so. Urenco did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

(By Timothy Gardner; Editing by Jonathan Oatis and Andrea Ricci)