Along with close relative rhodium, the two metals are chiefly used in the catalytic converters used to clean exhaust fumes by the auto sector, an area that accounts for some 40% of platinum demand, and 80% of palladium offtake.

Losing that demand will be significant for all three metals – and for palladium and rhodium, there is currently no other industry that can realistically replace the volumes that will be lost as consumers transition to electric vehicles, which don’t need autocatalysts.

Analysts see a long tail for PGMs use in traditional internal combustion engines, and a drop in supply as mining becomes less economic has kept prices relatively well supported. But with fellow precious metal gold at all-time highs this year, that’s a disappointing performance.

“The PGM sector is facing a shift in which palladium and rhodium will see declining demand with no major alternative demand sector on the forecast horizon,” Wilma Swarts, head of PGMs at consultancy Metals Focus, told Reuters.

Estimates of when the erosion of PGM demand from auto makers will become significant vary, and depend on views of future sales of pure internal combustion vehicles versus hybrid or electric vehicles.

According to analysts at Macquarie, demand for both platinum and palladium from the auto sector will start falling beyond 2025.

Earlier this decade palladium was a standout performer among precious metals, more than tripling in price between late 2018 and early 2022 to more than $3,000 an ounce. At just over $1,000 an ounce, it has now given up the price premium it had held to platinum since 2018.

Both palladium , down 9% so far this year after a 39% slump in 2023, and rhodium, a small, illiquid market which has clawed back a little ground this year after dropping almost two-thirds in 2023, have further to slide, according to analysts whose estimates cover the next five years.

But platinum , down 9% so far in 2024 after sliding 8% in 2023, may fare better. It is the only major metal in the group that is expected to rise by 2028 from last year’s level, helped by demand in non-auto industries such as jewellery.

Producers and analysts also hope the metal has potential to benefit from new demand from the hydrogen economy via fuel cell vehicles, a slower-growing competitor to battery electric technology in cars.

But hopes for an acceleration of demand from fuel cell vehicles appear to be built on shaky ground.

“The current pace of deployment of fuel cell vehicles is certainly disappointing,” said one person at a company involved with the technology.

In Macquarie’s base case scenario, total annual hydrogen-related demand will struggle to rise materially above 250,000 ounces of platinum by 2030. For comparison, the auto sector currently consumes 3.3 million ounces of platinum a year.

Analysts are more certain that the supply side will support platinum in the future through declining output from mines.

The World Platinum Investment Council, whose members are major Western producers, expects platinum to be in an average annual deficit of 500,000 ounces until 2028. Shortages will cut above-ground stocks to six weeks of demand by end-2028 from 23 weeks at end-2023.

Macquarie’s five-year outlook, which sees average 2028 palladium prices falling by 40% from 2023 levels to $800 per ounce, conversely expects platinum prices to rise to $1,250 an ounce by 2028, up 29% from 2023.

For South Africa’s platinum miners, that is cold comfort. According to consultancy Metals Focus, South African PGM miners currently get just 35% of their revenue from platinum.

Even at current prices, around half of South African mines are producing their PGMs at a loss, prompting them to rely on other products such as chrome. Mines in North America are under pressure too, according to Metals Focus.

“Palladium was over-valued compared to platinum in recent years,” said a major PGMs producer. “That was certainly very pleasant, but it’s over.”

(By Polina Devitt and Ashitha Shivaprasad; Editing by Veronica Brown and Jan Harvey)

Zimplats did not say how many of the 8,000 permanent and contract jobs were targeted under the planned cuts.

The company, which swung to a rare $8.8 million loss in the six months to December 2023, from a $159.6 million profit previously, said it was “critically reviewing its business” amid declining metal prices.

“Regrettably, labour optimisation initiatives must be implemented urgently to secure the business, and the bulk of jobs in the company,” Zimplats said in a statement.

Southern African PGM miners, including Zimplats’ parent company Impala, Sibanye Stillwater and Anglo American Platinum, have scrambled to cut costs and thousands of jobs after profits slumped as metal prices plunged over the past year due to weak auto production and concerns about a global economic slowdown.

Zimbabwe’s other PGM mines, Unki mine, owned by Anglo American Platinum, and Mimosa, a joint venture between Impala and Sibanye Stillwater, are also implementing job cuts.

Mimosa has also halted its $100 million North Hill expansion project, while Impala, which announced a 10-year $1.8 billion expansion project at Zimplats in 2021, is deferring long term schemes such as sulphur abatement and renewable energy.

Tharisa Plc has delayed by a year the commissioning of its $361 million Karo platinum mine in Zimbabwe, which was scheduled for June 2024, due to the low metal prices.

(By Nelson Banya; Editing by Ros Russell)

The diversified miner said in a statement no injuries were reported from the Feb. 29 incident when an ore collector bin attached to the shaft headgear collapsed to ground, damaging a surface ore conveyor belt system.

The damage to the ore collector bin and collapse of the conveyor system had resulted in the suspension of production from the shaft, Sibanye said.

Investigations into the cause of the incident were underway, while its impact on annual production from the Siphumelele shaft is being assessed, it added.

The shaft was forecast to produce an average of 54,000 platinum group metal ounces in 2024, approximately 3.5% of Sibanye’s annual output from its South African PGM mines.

(By Nelson Banya; Editing by Louise Heavens)

Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd.’s Zimbabwean unit is offering staff voluntary redundancy packages to cut costs because of anemic metal prices.

Weak platinum group metal prices are projected to last for the next 12 to 18 months, Zimplats Holdings Ltd. chief executive officer Alex Mhembere said in a staff circular dated March 18 that was confirmed by the company. The producer is beginning “a voluntary retrenchment exercise for all employees wishing to be considered,” which may “mitigate the need for a compulsory retrenchment,” the circular said.

Impala, known as Implats, and its PGM mining peers have already cut thousands of jobs in neighboring South Africa – which accounts for about 70% of global platinum output. The four largest producers have all recently released sobering earnings reports, with profits battered by a sharp slump in metals prices since the start of last year.

Employees at Zimplats – Zimbabwe’s biggest producer of PGMs – are being offered a minimum of three months’ pay and must submit their application forms by March 22, according to the circular.

“We have been working with all teams across the board in implementing various cost containment and cash preservation programs,” Mhembere said. “I am confident that as a team we will successfully navigate through the headwinds.”

(By Godfrey Marawanyika)

Coronavirus pandemic fallout and Moscow’s war in Ukraine have sent Western governments scrambling to reduce their reliance on Chinese supply chains and disentangle their economies from Russia.

But as Washington plots a course for its energy transition it is lagging behind China, which has spent the past decade securing access to minerals needed for the production of products like electric vehicle batteries and solar panels.

“We don’t want to be overly reliant on any one country or any one company for global supply chains for critical minerals,” Adeyemo told Reuters during a visit to a platinum mine in Marikana, South Africa, owned by Sibanye-Stillwater.

While the US government has launched a raft of measures to incentivize increased production of strategic and critical minerals at home, notably under the Inflation Reduction Act, Adeyemo acknowledged that overseas resources were also vital.

“Africa is going to play a huge role,” he said. “A lot of critical minerals are located here.”

Chinese assets in Africa already include massive copper and cobalt projects in Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia as well as lithium in Zimbabwe, where companies are assisted by heavy Chinese state investment in accompanying infrastructure.

Adeyemo said the United States was working with G7 allies to close that infrastructure gap.

The US International Development Finance Corporation is, meanwhile, aiming to de-risk private investment in Africa. And the deputy secretary said Washington was incentivizing US manufacturing to boost demand for those minerals and create favourable market conditions for miners.

But he added that the White House also stood ready to ensure a level playing field.

“We are talking to our European allies … about some of the actions we can take using trade tools to make sure that a country like China can’t flood the market with things like electric vehicles and solar panels,” he said.

Hold accountable

Regarding Russia, Adeyemo said countries like South Africa also had a role to play.

In the wake of Moscow’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the US government slapped sanctions on a number of Russian miners and mineral exports. But it left Russian platinum group metals (PGM) largely untouched.

The United States is a major consumer of palladium, a PGM used in catalytic converters, with 32% of its imports of the metal coming from Russia between 2019 and 2022, according to the US Geological Survey.

“South Africa has a real opportunity to help supply the global economy,” Adeyemo said. “And it gives us the ability to take other actions to hold Russia accountable.”

South Africa is a major palladium producer, and Sibanye-Stillwater mines the metal both in Marikana and at a US project in Montana.

“Between what comes out of South Africa and what’s produced in the US, the US does not need to be dependent on sources from any other country,” CEO Neal Froneman told Reuters.

However, he said companies like his needed US government support.

“You can provide loans or introduce tariffs or whatever it might be,” he said. “That is a role that they need to think very differently about and help companies that are trying to source and provide these critical metals into those ecosystems.”

(By Joe Bavier; Editing by Mark Potter)

In a paper published in the journal Chemical Science, Johannes Fessler explains that each of these three chemical elements has the potential to replace several noble metals that are commonly employed in organic chemistry to catalyze fine chemicals.

As an example, Fessler describes a complex active ingredient candidate based on pyrrole, a common drug precursor, which can be created from “simple starting materials” with the help of an acid-tolerant homogeneous iron catalyst and at room temperature.

“Homogeneous” catalysis means that the starting materials – catalyst, solvent and ultimately the product and by-product – are dissolved in a single reaction vessel. They must therefore be separated after each reaction step, purified and prepared for the next step.

“If you manage to save one of these steps in the chemical process, you greatly reduce the amount of time and material required and minimize waste,” Fessler said in a media statement.

This is precisely what he achieved with the reaction to pyrrole, using a reaction cascade.

Climate-neutral chemical industry

Replacing noble metals as catalysts with iron and the like has become an attractive research topic.

“The task of climate-neutral, sustainable management is facing the chemical industry as well as all other sectors,” the researcher said.

Iron is abundant, making up 5% of the earth’s crust. And after iron and titanium, manganese is the most common transition metal on the planet.

On the other hand, there is a reason why base metals have so far only played a marginal role in organic chemistry.

“They are often less stable in catalytic processes than catalysts made of noble metals,” Fessler explained. “In addition, they usually work at high temperatures and pressures in the area I am researching.”

However, such harsh conditions would destroy the complex molecules in drug production. The chemical structures that ensure the specific effect of a drug, the so-called functional groups in the molecule, are particularly at risk.

In this respect, it is a success to show how catalysts made of iron, manganese and cobalt can sometimes manage with significantly milder reaction conditions compared to previous practice. In the case of pyrrole, these are temperatures between 20 and 30 degrees Celsius.

Johannes Fessler’s experiments revealed another advantage of his approach: His non-noble metal catalysts very precisely converted only those molecules that the chemists needed in the actual synthesis. “We call this approach highly selective. It produces hardly any by-products or waste,” he said.

The scientist tested the reliable functioning of his reaction on various active ingredients and drug precursors.

“We wanted to make sure that the iron catalyst also activates the right place in the molecule for these substances and spares the sensitive functional groups,” he noted.

In this way, the chemist tested his method on widely used cholesterol-lowering drugs and blood pressure medications, among others.

African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) said on Friday it was deferring plans to expand output at its Bokoni mine due to low platinum group metal (PGM) prices after reporting a 43% drop in its half-year profit.

The diversified South African miner’s headline earnings declined to 2.96 billion rand ($158.5 million) in the six months to December 2023, from 5.17 billion rand previously, as lower thermal coal and PGM prices hit income.

ARM cut its interim dividend to 6 rand per share, from 14 rand per share previously.

The miner acquired the Bokoni mine in South Africa from Anglo American Platinum and Atlatsa Resources Corporation in 2022 as part of its plans to expand PGM output.

Bokoni mine, which had been put under care and maintenance by its previous owners in 2017, resumed production in November 2023, with plans to further expand output.

However, the sharp fall in PGM prices over the past year, mainly due to weaker demand in China and an uncertain global economic outlook, has forced South African miners, who account for 70% of world output, to suspend projects and cut costs.

ARM said a bankable feasibility study for the phased development of Bokoni, a key step towards securing funding, had been deferred “due to depressed commodity prices and uncertain immediate outlook”.

The company said the prices of palladium and rhodium fell 42% and 70%, respectively, during the period under review, resulting in a 40% decline in the average realized rand price for its set of PGMs.

ARM said its immediate priority is to conserve cash while ramping up production on a phased basis from the installed capacity of 60,000 metric tons of ore per month using existing infrastructure.

($1 = 18.6702 rand)

(By Nelson Banya; Editing by Jamie Freed, Eileen Soreng and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

The hit on Sibanye’s income comes as the company advances projects including a lithium mine in Finland and plans to develop another one in the US.

CEO Neal Froneman said Sibanye may consider a capital raise if the lower metal prices persist for longer, but he ruled out a rights issue.

“We are going to raise additional capital, but this perception that it’s going to be a rights issue is completely wrong,” he said during a results call.

The precious metals producer swung to the loss last year from a $1.2 billion profit the previous year and record earnings in 2021, when prices for rhodium and palladium rallied.

It reported impairments of $2.6 billion at its US palladium mines, a nickel operation in France and a gold mine in South Africa due in part to the significant decline in metal prices and an uncertain outlook.

The loss comes after Sibanye embarked on a deal spree, buying battery metal assets in France, Finland, Australia and the US.

The fall in prices for PGMs, mostly used by automakers to curb toxic emissions, is forcing South African mining companies to restructure and cut jobs.

Froneman said in a statement that more restructuring might be required, especially at Sibanye’s US PGM operations and the Sandouville nickel refinery in France.

“We recognize however that if low commodity prices persist, earnings are going to remain under pressure and, with ongoing inflationary cost pressure, there may be further restructuring required,” Froneman said.

Sibanye’s peers Anglo American Platinum and Impala Platinum are also restructuring loss-making operations and cutting costs, a process which will cost thousands of jobs.

(By Nelson Banya and Felix Njini; Editing by Jason Neely, Jan Harvey and David Evans)

In still-rare hydrogen-powered cars, the fuel is stored compressed at a pressure of around 700 atmospheres. This is neither the cheapest nor the safest method, and it has little to do with efficiency: There are only 45 kilograms of hydrogen in one cubic meter. The same volume can hold 70 kilograms of hydrogen if it is condensed beforehand.

The liquefaction process requires large amounts of energy, and the extremely low temperature, at around 20 Kelvin, must then be maintained throughout storage. An alternative could be suitable materials; for example, magnesium hydride, which can hold up to 106 kilograms of hydrogen in a cubic meter.

Magnesium hydride is among the simplest of the materials tested for hydrogen storage capacity. Its content can reach 7.6% (by weight). Magnesium hydride devices are therefore quite heavy and so mainly suitable for stationary applications. However, it is important to note that magnesium hydride is a very safe substance and can be stored without risk; for example, in a basement, and magnesium itself is a readily available and cheap metal.

“Research on the incorporation of hydrogen into magnesium has been going on for decades, yet it has not resulted in solutions that can count on wider use,” said Zbigniew Lodziana, a theoretical physicist who has co-authored an article in Advanced Science, where the latest discovery is presented.

“One source of problems is hydrogen itself. This element can effectively penetrate the crystal structure of magnesium, but only when it is present in the form of single atoms. To obtain it from typical molecular hydrogen, a catalyst efficient enough to make the process of hydrogen migration in the material fast and energetically viable is required,” Lodziana said. “So everyone has been looking for a catalyst that meets the above conditions, unfortunately without much success. Today, we finally know why these attempts were doomed to failure.”

Lodziana has developed a new model of the thermodynamic and electron processes occurring in magnesium in contact with hydrogen atoms. The model predicts that during the migration of hydrogen atoms, local, thermodynamically stable magnesium hydride clusters are formed in the material. At the boundaries between the metallic magnesium and its hydride, changes in the electronic structure of the material then occur, and these changes have a significant role in reducing the mobility of hydrogen ions.

In other words, the kinetics of magnesium hydride formation is primarily determined by phenomena at its interface with magnesium. This effect has so far not been taken into account in the search for efficient catalysts.

For this study, the migration of atomic hydrogen in a layer of pure magnesium sputtered onto palladium was studied in an ultra-high vacuum chamber. The measuring machine was capable of recording changes in the state of several outer atomic layers of the sample under study, caused by the formation of a new chemical compound and the associated transformations of the material’s electronic structure. The model proposed by the researchers allows to fully understand the experimental results.

Such results pave the way for a new search for an optimal catalyst for magnesium hydride and explain why some of the previously found catalysts showed higher efficiency than expected.

“There is much to suggest that the lack of significant progress in hydrogen storage in magnesium and its compounds was simply due to our incomplete understanding of the processes involved in hydrogen transport in these materials,” Lodziana said. “For decades, we have all been looking for better catalysts, only not where we should be looking. Now, new theoretical and experimental results make it possible to think again with optimism about further improvements in methods of introducing hydrogen into magnesium.”

Diamond drillhole EFO7D cut 34 metres grading 0.5 gram PGE including 10 metres at 1.2 grams PGE per tonne, 0.2% nickel and 891 parts per million copper from 388 metres down-hole, the company said on Monday. The PGE component includes 10 metres at 0.89 gram palladium, 0.19 gram platinum and 0.1 gram gold, it said.

“The key driver of this discovery is the implementation of artificial intelligence through our alliance partner Earth AI,” Legacy Minerals CEO and managing director Christopher Byrne said in a release. “This is the first confirmed discovery of magmatic-related nickel-copper sulphide mineralization in the 700 km long ultramafic belt that hosts the Fontenoy project.”

Explorers and miners are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence to process big loads of data, streamline operations for increased productivity and spot opportunities to innovate and lower costs. Proponents predict AI will be indispensable to help the industry ramp up the supply of battery metals for the global energy transition to fight climate change. Electric vehicles, for example, need roughly four times as much copper as traditional automobiles.

Faster, cheaper

San Francisco-based Earth AI says it has made mineral deposit discoveries in two out of three tries compared with an industry average of 0.5%. Its predictive technology, trained on remote sensing, geophysical and exploration data, spots nickel, copper, zinc and vanadium prospects more than 100 times faster and cost-effectively than traditional methods, the company says.

“Our AI for mineral discovery is key to the diversification of the global critical metals supply chains by finding maiden deposits in unexplored areas at a fraction of the usual cost,” Earth AI CEO and founder Roman Teslyuk said in a release. “The discovery in Fontenoy, the second for us after the recent discovery of a greenfield molybdenum deposit, confirms that the future of mining lies in our technology.”

The Fontenoy discovery cost A$500,000 in exploration, Earth AI figures. That is 200 times less than the A$100 million spent by KoBold Metals. It’s a start-up also using AI backed by a coalition of billionaires including Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, which is exploring in Zambia, Quebec and Australia, where it signed a deal with BHP (NYSE: BHP; LSE: BHP; ASX: BHP).

Shares in Legacy Minerals closed A$0.01 higher at A$0.14 apiece on Monday in Sydney, valuing the company at A$14.8 million. They’ve traded in a 52-week range of A$0.11 to A$0.21.

Massive sulphides

The Fontenoy project contains disseminated and veined copper-gold mineralization over a strike length of 8 km, Legacy says. It is interpreted to represent McPhillamys-style volcanogenic hosted massive sulphide mineralization.

A nickel-copper-PGE surface anomalism found south of the discovery intercept is now a priority area for follow up, Legacy said. There’s an opportunity to follow up with electrical geophysics for future drill targeting. Diamond drill planning is underway, it said.

Earth AI, which has an in-house drilling unit, completed three diamond-cored holes for a total 1,633.7 metres at the site about 150 km northwest of Canberra. Fontenoy was historically drilled by companies searching for shallow nickel-laterite deposits but not PGE or magmatic-related nickel-copper sulphide mineralization.

The AI explorer didn’t drill survey holes, but used predictive software to lower costs and speed the search process. It then sampled two-metre areas where sulphides had been logged and sent 283.8 metres for analysis, the company said.

“Mining with the help of AI has recently been at the top of the news, but it is precisely this discovery that is important for the market,” Earth AI said. “Previously, Earth AI discovered a greenfield molybdenum deposit in Australia in a region eight other companies explored and came up with nothing.”

The precious metals producer kicked off in October a restructuring process at its four loss-making mines that was expected to result in the loss of 4,095 jobs. 

Sibanye-Stillwater said the reduction in the number of layoffs was possible thanks to strategic decisions taken in consultation with interested parties. These include going ahead with the announced closure of the Simunye shaft, which ceased production in 2023, as well as keeping the 4 Belt (4B) shaft at Marikana open.

The miner said that the Marikana mine shaft, which employs 1,496 permanent workers and 54 contractors, will only stay in production if it does not run up net losses on a monthly basis.

Two other shafts, Rowland and Siphumelele, which were hit by operational and geological issues, “have been repositioned for sustainable levels of production at a lower cost structure”, Sibanye-Stillwater said.

The Johannesburg-based firm noted that almost 1,300 employees had voluntarily left their jobs or accepted early retirement packages, while 467 people left since September due to “natural attrition”.

The company said earlier this week that it expects to report a 91% loss for 2023 due to multiyear-lows for platinum-group metals prices. It also flagged an impairment of 47.5 billion rand ($2.58 billion). 

Palladium and platinum prices decline has driven producers in South Africa, including Sibanye-Stillwater to apply severe cost-cutting measures. 

Impala Platinum Holdings has offered voluntary job cuts, including at its deep-level Rustenburg complex, while Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) has announced plans to cut 3,700 jobs after its profit plunged 71% last year.

The company said it expects to report in March a loss per share for 2023 of 12.68 rand to 14.01 rand, compared with a profit of 6.51 rand a share the previous year. This is equivalent to an eye-popping 91% drop in annual profit.

The announcement comes only two months after the South African miner announced it would lay off 1,500 workers from its gold mines. It also said at the time it had begun talks that could affect 4,000 more employees at its platinum group metals (PGMs) operations, including those in the United States.

“We have already taken proactive steps to address loss-making production at unprofitable operations and the group remains focused on ensuring the sustainability of our business and delivering on our strategical essentials through this period of low commodity prices,” the company said in a statement.

Sibanye shares fell more than 5% in afternoon trading in Johannesburg, closing at ZAC 1,994. The stock has lost almost 48% of its value in the past year, mainly due to the prices decline of palladium and rhodium.

The sharp drop of PGMs prices decline has driven producers to apply severe cost-cutting measures. Anglo American Platinum said on Monday it would cut 3,700 jobs at its South African operations, or 17% of the Anglo American unit’s workforce. 

Impala Platinum Holdings has offered voluntary job cuts, including at its deep-level Rustenburg complex.

Despite the challenges, Sibanye noted that all its South African and Australian operations were profitable before the end of the fourth quarter of 2023. 

RELATED: In election year, South African mines bleed cash, jobs

The partners aim to develop alternative markets for the battered-metal, as prices fell more than 40% last year due mainly to weak demand from China. The rout has rolled into 2024, with the palladium price falling below platinum’s last week for the first time since 2018.

The joint venture, which will be equally funded by both parties, says that while palladium demand has been dominated by auto catalysts for the past few decades, is time to find new applications for the metal.

“Over the longer term, demand for palladium in the automotive sector is expected to decrease, creating an opportunity to consider new applications for the metal (…) Palladium has a very high selectivity for hydrogen and thus can be used in a broad range of applications,” the companies said in the statement.

Palladium is mainly used by the auto industry, which makes up four-fifths of its demand. Consumption of the metal, however, dropped by almost 40% in 2023 as carmakers switched to cheaper platinum for the devices that reduce harmful emissions and as more drivers opted for EVs.

Sibanye and Heraeus expect to ultimately ensure a “sustainable PGM supply basket”, which should include palladium, platinum and critical raw materials, such as iridium, ruthenium and rhodium.

“We expect hybrids to become the dominant engine type underpinning demand for palladium in the medium term,” Sibanye-Stillwater chief executive, Neal Froneman said in the statement. “Longer term and in response to changing demands, the PGM industry must innovate and stabilize the platinum group metals market,” he said.

Palladium and platinum prices decline has driven producers in South Africa, including Sibanye-Stillwater to apply severe cost-cutting measures. 

The company is even axing jobs at its mines in the United States, with about 7,000 workers expected to be affected.

Fellow miner Impala Platinum Holdings has offered voluntary job cuts, including at its deep-level Rustenburg complex. Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) has also held talks with the government about potential job cuts.

Spot palladium was up 7.9% at $932.14 per troy ounce by 1653 GMT. This was the metal’s biggest one-day gain in two months. Prices had touched their lowest in more than five years of $849.13 on Tuesday.

“We believe some short positions are getting covered which was to be expected at one point in time,” said Dominik Sperzel, co-head of trading at Heraeus.

Last week, palladium had fallen below platinum for the first time since 2018. Its strong growth on Wednesday took back the premium as platinum had a smaller daily rise – of 2.5% to $893.95 per ounce.

“The outsized gross short positioning in the white metals is a major factor where palladium usually leads the pack,” said Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP SA.

The supply and demand balance for palladium remains unchanged.

The auto sector accounts for 80% of demand for the metal, which fell by 39% in 2023 due to its replacement with cheaper platinum in the autocatalysts curbing harmful emissions and rising market share of battery-powered electric vehicles.

South Africa, Russia and North America are the main producers of palladium, but the majority of mined output comes in a basket with other metals, limiting producers’ ability to reduce palladium production even when the market price is below their costs.

“The build in open interest over the past few sessions suggests a short covering rally may have helped to lift prices,” said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper.

Palladium could regain the $1,000 threshold in the near term if supply cuts arrive or positive demand surprises trigger a short covering rally, Cooper added.

(By Ashitha Shivaprasad and Polina Devitt; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri)

The new MRE includes 813 million tonnes of indicated material grading 0.22% nickel, plus 0.07% copper, 0.02% cobalt, 0.048 g/t platinum, 0.094 g/t palladium and 0.012 g/t gold, for a nickel-equivalent (NiEq) grade of 0.29%. The contained nickel metal is nearly 3.9 billion lb.

There are also 896 million tonnes of inferred material grading 0.27% NiEq (0.21% nickel, 0.05% copper, 0.02% cobalt, 0.039 g/t platinum, 0.068 g/t palladium and 0.009 g/t gold), containing 4.2 billion lb. of nickel. The inferred resource grew 180% in tonnage compared to the deposit’s initial resource published in November 2023.

The 2024 resource estimate incorporated 35 historical drill holes, the data for which Alaska Energy purchased in August 2023, and eight diamond drill holes (totaling 4,138 metres) drilled by the company in 2023. The resource area covers three zones (EZ1, EZ2, EZ3) of sulphide mineralization spanning 4.5 kilometres of the Eureka deposit.

The highlight of recent drilling was the identification of a higher-grade core zone within EZ2 that displayed continuity along much of the strike of the deposit. This core zone alone contains an indicated resource of 211 million tonnes at 0.34% NiEq and an inferred resource of 154 million tonnes at 0.33% NiEq.

“In less than a year, we have taken an exploration concept to a substantial deposit of nickel and other critical metals,” Alaska Energy Metals CEO Gregory Beischer commented in a news release. “The update increases the nickel metal content of the deposit to over 8 billion lb. (more than 3.7 million tonnes) with only a 0.01% grade decrease and a notably lower strip ratio.”

The Eureka deposit of the Nikolai project now represents a globally significant accumulation of nickel and has now become one of the larger known nickel deposits in the country, Beischer noted. The project is located 40 km northwest of the village of Paxson, on the southern flank of the Alaska Range.

“Nikolai could potentially become an important source of nickel for the US, catering to the needs of various manufacturing sectors including stainless steel, electric vehicles, defense components, long-term, grid-scale renewable energy storage batteries and a myriad of other uses,” he said.

Regarding the high-grade core zone at EZ2, Beischer said the company will continue to evaluate this area as it could positively affect project economics.

The Nikolai project is a possible host to disseminated nickel-copper-cobalt-PGE mineralization analogous to the Crawford deposit in Canada and the Norilsk mine in Russia, the company said.

Shares in Alaska Energy Metals jumped over 5% to C$0.29 apiece by 12:20 p.m. in Toronto, for a market capitalization of C$20 million. The stock traded between C$0.03 and C$0.50 over the past 52 weeks.

Geopolitical risks have also hampered Nornickel, the world’s largest palladium producer and a major producer of refined nickel, and made Asia Nornickel’s largest sales market with a share of more than 50% for the first time in its history.

“The year 2023 was marked by a slump of metal prices and a lingering external political pressure on Russian business that affected our financial results,” CEO Vladimir Potanin said in a statement.

“The company managed … to sell all metals produced in the reported period by redirecting sales to friendly countries,” he added.

Potanin said last year that Western sanctions on Russia in response to the conflict in Ukraine had constrained Nornickel’s development, though the measures have not targeted the company directly.

Full-year revenue fell 15% to $14.4 billion, while earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell 21% to $6.9 billion.

Last week, Nornickel said it expected a further decline in its nickel and palladium output this year, due to geopolitical risks and postponed furnace repairs, following a drop in production in 2023.

Capital expenditure (capex) fell 29% in 2023 to $3 billion, partly due to the “rescheduling of investment projects owing to voluntary self-sanctions imposed by foreign suppliers of equipment and technologies”, Nornickel said.

In 2024, capex is seen at $3-3.2 billion, it said in a presentation.

As Nornickel redirects part of its sales towards Asia, “borrowing in Chinese yuan is a priority for the company at the moment,” its chief financial officer, Sergey Malyshev said.

The company had free cash flow of $2.7 billion in 2023, which once adjusted for debt servicing and other factors would leave only $1.4 billion for possible dividends, exceeding its January interim payments, Malyshev said, adding the final decision on full-year 2023 dividends would be up to the board of directors.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova, Alexander Marrow and Polina Devitt; Editing by Jason Neely and Mark Potter)

Spot palladium retreated 2.8% to $869.6 per troy ounce, its lowest in five years, while platinum stood at $874.5.

Palladium fell by 39% in 2023 after rising prices from 2018 to 2022 caused the auto sector, which accounts for 80% of demand, to start replacing it with the cheaper platinum in autocatalysts.

The rising adoption of electric vehicles, which do not require any off-gas treatment system, further worsened the metal’s prospects.

“That means that demand will shrink while supply will remain more or less stable,” said Henrik Marx, head of precious metals trading at Heraeus.

“Palladium prices could easily spike on major supply headlines given the thin liquidity. But we consider such rallies as opportunities for producers to add more hedging positions and for speculators to open fresh short positions, as the long-term outlook remains very negative,” Citi said in a recent research note.

The majority of mined palladium production comes in a basket with other metals, limiting producers’ ability to slow palladium output even when the market price is below their costs.

South Africa and Russia account for 80% of global palladium mined output, with the rest mined in North America. Russia’s main miner, Nornickel, will produce slightly less palladium this year, but no further reductions are planned, it said in January.

“South Africa and America are not going to shut down production. That’s the main conclusion,” a source at a major miner told Reuters.

Two South African producers already reported tumbling earnings following the collapse in prices.

Impala Platinum reported that its fiscal second-half profit likely fell by more than 85% and wrote down the value of assets in South Africa and Canada. Anglo American Platinum said its 2023 profit sank by as much as 79%.

Shares in the four companies that mine most PGM metals in South Africa all fell in Johannesburg trading. Amplats dropped 6.8%, Implats slid 1.9%, Northam Platinum declined 5.2% and Sibanye Stillwater was down 4.6% as of 10:43 a.m. local time Thursday.

(With files from Bloomberg and Reuters)

South African PGM miners, home to around 70% of global mined platinum output, are discussing the need to restructure unprofitable production, the council said at the start of the Investing in African Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town.

The Minerals Council said the sector, largely dependent on automakers’ use of PGMs to curb exhaust emissions from engines, faces “a great deal of uncertainty” as the world pivots towards electric vehicles.

Top global PGM producer South Africa has some of the world’s oldest and deepest platinum mines, which are expensive to operate, especially when metal prices are low.

The prices of palladium and platinum fell by 40% and 15% last year, respectively, mainly because of weak demand in China.

Electricity and labour costs account for most of PGM miners’ total costs, the Minerals Council said in a statement.

“In light of this, various prominent PGM miners are restructuring their operations potentially impacting between 4,000 to 7,000 jobs,” it added.

Anglo American’s CEO Duncan Wanblad told delegates at the Indaba that margins for mining companies facing declining ore grades and sharply increased input costs “evaporate quickly”.

“What matters is the industry’s and government’s ability to navigate these challenges to ensure that the industry does survive and prosper – yes with smaller direct workforces, and this is a reality that the industry is contending with right now,” he said in a speech at the Cape Town conference.

Anglo’s South African PGM unit Anglo American Platinum (Amplats), which employs over 20,000 workers in South Africa, is reviewing costs.

Anglo American as a whole aims to cut capital expenditure by $1.8 billion by 2026, after reporting lower profits and returns for the first half of the financial year.

Sibanye Stillwater, South Africa’s biggest mining sector employer, has also said its planned restructuring could lead to the closure of four loss-making PGM shafts and the loss of 4,095 jobs.

Impala Platinum said it was offering voluntary job cuts to workers at its South African operations.

(By Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo, Nellie Peyton, Nelson Banya and Clara Denina; Editing by Alexander Smith, Veronica Brown and Barbara Lewis)

At the end of 2023, the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners reached a combined $1.42 trillion, up a healthy, if far from spectacular $48.7 billion over the course of 2023. Mining’s top tier is also worth $330 billion less than in March 2022.

Metal and mineral markets are volatile at the best of times – the nickel, cobalt and lithium price collapse in 2023 was extreme but not entirely unprecedented. Rare earth producers, platinum group metal watchers, iron ore followers, and gold and silver bugs for that matter, have been through worse.

Mining companies have become better at navigating choppy waters and as a whole the majors performed fairly consistently last year despite geopolitical and market turmoil, but within the ranking, 2023 fortunes were made and lost over what seemed like days.

The forced closure of one of the world’s biggest copper mines – and the subsequent collapse of owner First Quantum Minerals stock – served as a stark reminder of the outsized risks miners face over and above market swings.

Panama root canal

After months of protests and political pressure, at the end of November the Panama government ordered the closure of First Quantum Minerals’ Cobre Panama mine following a ruling by the Supreme Court that declared the mining contract for the operation unconstitutional.

Public figures, including climate activist Greta Thunberg and Hollywood actor Leonardo Di Caprio backed the protests and shared a video calling for the “mega mine” to cease operations, which quickly went viral. 

That mining cobre is at the nexus of the green energy transition is clearly an irony lost on those trying to save the world.  FQM is seeking arbitration and completely winding down operations will take time, but a reopening of Cobre Panama is not on the cards. 

From 25th position in the ranking at the end of March 2022 and a valuation well above $20 billion, the November-December sell off saw FQM drop out of the top tier altogether, ending 2023 at number 58 with a market cap below $6 billion. 

Cobre Panama supplied more than 40% of the company’s revenue, and with nickel prices plummeting FQM has also been forced to suspend operations at its Raventhorpe mine in Australia. 

Amid the inevitable takeover rumours now in circulation, shares in the Vancouver-based company have rallied in 2024, but still not enough to reenter the top 50.

No. 12 with a bullet 

If 2023 was an annus horribilis for FQM it was mirabilis for Amman Mineral Internasional. Stock in the Indonesian firm surged by 269% from its July debut in Jakarta to reach a market capitalisation of more than $30 billion at the end of last year – and number 12 in the ranking. 

That valuation is quite an achievement on annual revenue of $2 billion no matter how fat margins are at the company’s Batu Hijau copper and gold mine.  Batu Hijau is the third largest mine worldwide in terms of copper equivalent output (but no match for Cobre Panama when it comes to the orange metal alone)  and has been in production since the turn of the millennium. Amman is also developing the adjacent Elang project on the island of Sumbawa. 

Amman Minerals’ ascent has minted at least six new billionaires and the stock appears to be building on its success in 2024, rising by double digits in January already.

Indonesia’s other major mining IPO, Harita Nickel, was on a different trajectory altogether. After listing in April and raising $672m, the company has had a tough go of it and the stock has shed more than 38% since then as nickel prices continue to decline.

Shiny gold, dull silver, tarnished PGMs

The price of gold hit an all-time record on December 1, 2023.  But bullion’s best ever level passed without the usual fanfare and despite bullish indications for 2024, gold mining stocks did not exactly storm the rankings of the most valuable miners.

Over the course of 2023 gold and royalty companies on the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners added a collective $20.8 billion in market cap. 

And judging by gold miners’ performance so far this year, gold above $2,000 is not providing enough support. Newmont is already down 17%, Barrick has shed 13% and Agnico Eagle shareholders are 9% poorer. 

The number of precious metals companies in the top 50 has also been relatively stable over the years. With Newmont’s absorption of Newcrest now complete, the open slot was taken up by Kinross, which spent a few years in the wilderness. 

Anglogold Ashanti was just edged out by Jiangxi Copper for position number 50 on the last trading days of 2023, but based on its performance so far in 2024 the London-listed company is already back among the top tier. Indeed Anglogold is the only major gold player in the black year to date.

Silver has not been able to ride gold’s coattails and the top 50 has not had a silver specialist for a few years after Fresnillo dropped out (now at #61) and while Pan American Silver has come close in recent years at the end of last year it made it to #58 only. 

The exit of platinum and palladium majors like Sibanye Stillwater and Impala Platinum, now both valued at less than $4 billion, made space for Royal Gold to reenter at 47 at the end of last year, up from 57th in 2022. 

After a dismal 2023, the sole remaining PGM specialist Anglo American Platinum looks likely to lose more ground this quarter as palladium and platinum prices continue to slide into the new year.

Not too tough at the top 

London-listed Anglo American has had a rough year in part due to its exposure to platinum group metals and control of AngloPlat, and is now valued at $30 billion after peaking at $70 billion in March 2021.  

Were it not for the London-listed company’s iron ore operations, the 40%-plus slump in share value may have been deeper. Rumours that Glencore may be sniffing around now that the Swiss behemoth’s bid for all of Teck Resources has soured is also keeping Anglo from falling further down the rankings .  

Investors in Anglo, with a history going back more than a hundred years on the South African gold and diamond fields, have had a particularly wild ride over the last few years. In January 2016, Anglo’s market cap fell below $5 billion after it came close to suffocating under a pile of debt.  

Against expectations, iron ore seems to be holding above $120 a tonne, Chinese property bankruptcies and Beijing’s tepid stimulus response notwithstanding. 

Iron ore’s resilience despite Chinese troubles has also kept the share prices of the other diversified majors, which make their fattest profits from the steelmaking ingredient, from skidding. 

The top 10 mining companies have been able to keep their share of the total above 50% for a few years now. Not quite the magnificent seven, but size does matter in mining, particularly when access to capital is no longer a headache but a migraine. 

Expectations of another active year of M&A in the sector is likely to make the Top 50 top-heavier, especially now that it’s painfully obvious just how one-commodity companies like the lithium stocks can so easily be derailed. Coal miners’ strong 2023 suggests there are still exceptional minerals that prove the rule.   

Lithium losers 

After defying gravity early on, the combined losses for lithium miners in the top 50 climbed to nearly $30 billion in market cap over the 12 month period. Four counters occupy the worst performance table for 2023. 

The M&A drama surrounding Liontown, Albermarle and Hancock Prospecting turned out to be a soap opera and Chile’s move to take control of its lithium industry now appears far less consequential than feared.

Despite the precipitous decline in lithium prices in 2023, after hitting all time highs above $80,000 a tonne in November 2022, none of the battery metal miners’ stock performance was dire enough to drop out of the Top 50.

The merger of Livent and Allkem to form Arcadium Lithium could in fact up lithium mining’s representation in the ranking to seven should Pilbara Minerals’ January bleeding be stanched. But with lithium prices far from stabilizing, the battery metal’s presence in the top 50 may fade further. 

Pilbara Minerals, which unlike its peers was still able to show share price gains last year,  joined the Top 50 last year, bringing the number of companies based in the Western Australia capital to five, surpassing the tally of Vancouver, BC as the top home base in the ranking. 

With the exit of First Quantum, three mining companies in the top 50 call Vancouver home while the return of Kinross saw the ranks of Toronto-headquartered miners move back up to four.  

Nuclear options

Uranium prices more than doubled during 2023 and recently hit triple digits for the first time in 16 years. The breakthrough for the nuclear fuel comes after a decade in the doldrums following the Fukushima disaster in Japan.

Canada’s Cameco made the best quarterly performer list once again in Q4 and after doubling in market worth in 2023.  The Saskatoon-based company now sits at no 23 in the ranking after jumping 22 places since end-2022.    

The value of shares in Kazatomprom, the world number one uranium producer, topped $10 billion at the end of 2023, placing it at position 38.  Until last year the state-owned Kazakh company was outside earshot of the Top 50 since its dual-listing in London and Astana in 2018.  

None of the smaller uranium companies are likely to pierce the top 50 by themselves, but combinations among the rank and file may edge in when countries aiming to ditch fossil fuels stop thinking they can have their yellowcake and eat it too.

*NOTES:

Source: MINING.COM, Morningstar, GoogleFinance, company reports. Trading data from primary-listed exchange at December 28 2023 to January 2, 2024 where applicable, currency cross-rates January 2, 2024. 

Percentage change based on US$ market cap difference, not share price change in local currency.

As with any ranking, criteria for inclusion are contentious. We decided to exclude unlisted and state-owned enterprises at the outset due to a lack of information. That, of course, excludes giants like Chile’s Codelco, Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining, which owns the world’s largest gold mine, Eurochem, a major potash firm, and a number of entities in China and developing countries around the world.

Another central criterion was the depth of involvement in the industry before an enterprise can rightfully be called a mining company.

For instance, should smelter companies or commodity traders that own minority stakes in mining assets be included, especially if these investments have no operational component or warrant a seat on the board?

This is a common structure in Asia and excluding these types of companies removed well-known names like Japan’s Marubeni and Mitsui, Korea Zinc and Chile’s Copec. 

Levels of operational or strategic involvement and size of shareholding were other central considerations. Do streaming and royalty companies that receive metals from mining operations without shareholding qualify or are they just specialised financing vehicles? We included Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals on the basis of their deep involvement in the industry.

Vertically integrated concerns like Alcoa and energy companies such as Shenhua Energy or Bayan Resources where power, ports and railways make up a large portion of revenues pose a problem. The revenue mix also tends to change alongside volatile coal prices. Same goes for battery makers like CATL which is increasingly moving upstream, but where mining still makes up a small portion of its valuation.  

Another consideration is diversified companies such as Anglo American with separately listed majority-owned subsidiaries. We’ve included Angloplat in the ranking but excluded Kumba Iron Ore in which Anglo has a 70% stake to avoid double counting. Similarly we excluded Hindustan Zinc which is listed separately but majority owned by Vedanta.

Many steelmakers own and often operate iron ore and other metal mines, but in the interest of balance and diversity we excluded the steel industry, and with that many companies that have substantial mining assets including giants like ArcelorMittal, Magnitogorsk, Ternium, Baosteel and many others.

Head office refers to operational headquarters wherever applicable, for example BHP and Rio Tinto are shown as Melbourne, Australia, but Antofagasta is the exception that proves the rule. We consider the company’s HQ to be in London, where it has been listed since the late 1800s.

Please let us know of any errors, omissions, deletions or additions to the ranking or suggest a different methodology.

Potanin, one of Russia’s richest men and the CEO of Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest palladium producer and a major producer of refined nickel, had asked the United Kingdom’s Supreme Court to throw out Natalia Potanina’s attempt to bring a mammoth divorce claim in the English courts.

Potanina wants to bring a claim for financial relief following their divorce, capped at 50% of the value of her ex-husband’s ultimate beneficial interest in shares in Nornickel, dividends paid since 2014, and a Russian property.

But Potanin’s lawyers said the Supreme Court should throw out her claim as the couple had no connection with Britain during their marriage and Potanina had already received tens of millions of dollars following Russian divorce litigation.

The Supreme Court ruled by a three-to-two majority that a lower court had applied the wrong legal test when granting Potanina permission to bring a financial claim in Britain, which was previously valued by her lawyers at around $9 billion.

But the case was sent back to the Court of Appeal to decide issues that were not resolved in 2021 when Potanina’s case was given the go-ahead.

Frances Hughes, a partner at law firm Hughes Fowler Carruthers who represented Potanina, said their client was delighted with the ruling, which meant the courts “will now focus on the merits of her case”.

Potanin’s lawyers, meanwhile, hailed the Supreme Court’s decision as a significant victory which may deter so-called “divorce tourism” – where one spouse chooses to bring their claim in a favourable legal jurisdiction.

“Divorce tourists will now have their claims subject to fair and robust scrutiny before being granted leave (to bring a claim) in this jurisdiction,” Potanin’s lawyer Fiona Shackleton from Payne Hicks Beach said in a statement.

(By Sam Tobin; Editing by William James and William Maclean)

CEO Vladimir Potanin said last year that sanctions had constrained Nornickel’s development, though Western governments have refrained from targeting Nornickel directly in response to the conflict in Ukraine.

Nornickel, the world’s largest palladium producer and a major producer of refined nickel, said its nickel production fell 5% year on year to 209,000 metric tons in 2023. This year, the company expects nickel output at 184,000-194,000 tons.

Palladium output dropped by 4% in 2023 to 2.692 million troy ounces, Nornickel said. This year, palladium output is seen at 2.296-2.451 million troy ounces.

The company had expected output for both metals to drop in 2023, but palladium output came in above forecast.

Nornickel’s senior vice-president and operational director Sergey Stepanov said output of all key metals, except platinum, slightly decreased in 2023 due to lower mined rich and cuprous ore volumes as the company transitions gradually to new mining equipment.

“After testing and gradual roll-out of equipment from new suppliers, our mines recovered to the scheduled mining volumes in the fourth quarter,” said Stepanov.

“In 2024, we expect that risks related to an adverse geopolitical situation will continue to impact our operations,” he said. “Furthermore, this year we are planning capital repairs of the flash smelting furnace #2 at Nadezhda Metallurgical Plant.”

Repairing the furnace, which has been delayed for two years due to issues with the supply of equipment, is now expected in mid-2024, Stepanov said. Nornickel did not say whether it has found equipment suppliers.

Platinum output rose 2% in 2023 to 664,000 ounces and is seen falling to 567,000-605,000 ounces in 2024, Nornickel said.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova and Alexander Marrow; Editing by Louise Heavens and David Evans)

The move follows an exponential rise in the number of mining claims being staked over the past year on First Nations territories – some as high as 30% — the highest annual number of mining claims staked in Ontario over the last six years, according to the Chiefs of Ontario.

The Chiefs said the increase in claims led to an “insurmountable” administrative burden for First Nation communities responsible for reviewing and responding to the mining claims.

“In accordance with Resolution 23/30S, which was passed at the Fall Chiefs Assembly 2023, the Chiefs of Ontario are calling on the Government of Ontario to declare a territory-wide moratorium on the Mining Lands Administration System (MLAS) for 365 days,” Ontario Regional Chief Glen Hare said in the statement.

 “Mining claim-staking continues to grow at a pace that far outstrips the ability for First Nations to respond and directly impacts our inherent, treaty, and constitutionally protected rights.”

Hare said a 365-day moratorium will give First Nations communities the time required to assess the impacts of the MLAS, the effects of the mine claims currently being staked, and develop a process “whereby meaningful and fulsome engagement and consultation can be integrated into the MLAS processes.”

In 2022, the Anishinabek Nation were unsuccessful when they made a similar request. The Ministry of Mines declined, stating a moratorium on mining was not considered an appropriate way to resolve the concerns.

Under the current MLAS system, prospectors can stake a mining claim online, and are not required to engage or consult with First Nations – even if the area in which the claim is staked is within their territories.

As a result, Chiefs of Ontario said, the area of land that has been staked is automatically removed from Treaty and Crown land that First Nations may have otherwise had access to add to reserve land, convert into parks, or is land that is currently undergoing land settlements via claims negotiations.

This week, Wyloo Metals said it is looking ahead to development at its  Eagle’s Nest project in Ontario’s Ring of Fire, seen as highly prospective for nickel, copper, platinum and palladium, despite resistance to the project voiced by Indigenous leaders.

Gitxaala v. British Columbia

In April 2023, British Columbia’s Gitxaała Nation launched a legal challenge against the provincial government’s “free entry” mineral claim staking regime.

BC’s current Mineral Tenure Act also permits anyone with a free miner certificate to acquire mineral claims online through an automated system in First Nations’ territories, without their consultation or consent.

While critics challenge the system, the industry argues it violates prospectors’ intellectual property by giving notice that it expects to find mineralization in a given area before any security of tenure is granted.

A September 2023 Supreme Court decision declared that B.C.’s current online mineral claim system breaches the Crown’s duty to consult.

The court gave the province 18 months to design a new system that incorporates consultation — which the Chiefs of Ontario said sets an important precedent for First Nations in other provinces.

Straub talked about the Eagle’s Nest high-grade nickel-copper-platinum group metals (PGM) project 500 km east of Thunder Bay. He is confident that a sustainable operation can be developed. A blasthole open stoping, 3,000-t/d underground mine is planned with annual output of 3.3 million lb.  nickel, plus 1.3 million lb. copper, 70,000 oz. palladium and 22,000 oz. platinum.

Mine planning is underway for an updated feasibility study next year. During this time environmental studies and permitting activities are underway. The current timeline calls for construction to begin in 2027 and production by the end of 2030.

There is, however, resistance to the project voiced by Indigenous leaders. The province considers there are nine First Nations to be within the Ring of Fire. Two of them – Webequie and Marten Falls – have signed memorandums of understanding with Wyloo and are leading the environmental assessment on a proposed road to the Ring of Fire. When the road is complete, it should open the area to more prospecting and additional mineral discoveries.

Ten of the First Nations from Treaty 9 have gathered under the banner of the Land Defence Alliance. They oppose mining on their territories, wanting to protect their lands and waters.

Wyloo has set itself up to be the one of the world’s leading pure-play nickel producers outside of Russia. The company won a bidding war in 2021 for the Canadian junior Noront Resources, renaming it Ring of Fire. Then in 2023 it acquired Mincor Resources, an Australian company, and last September combined all the assets under the Wyloo Metals name.

The Wyloo portfolio includes mines at Kambalda in Western Australia, the Eagle’s Nest development in Ontario, and prospects in the Cape-Smith belt in Quebec.

Growing use of platinum in autocatalysts that reduce harmful emissions from internal combustion engines and rising sales of battery-powered electric vehicles was behind the 39% slump in palladium prices last year.

Around 620,000 ounces of palladium were replaced by platinum in 2023 vs 385,000 ounces in 2022, according to the World Platinum Investment Council’s (WPIC) November estimate. In 2024, the WPIC sees the substitution at 700,000 ounces.

“Based upon our current forecast of palladium moving to surplus from 2025, we expect palladium to begin to be substituted for platinum from that point,” said Edward Sterck, head of research at the WPIC.

Substitution of platinum for palladium or the other way round is a slow process. It mostly occurs on new vehicle models and typically only 15% of vehicles produced a year are new models, Sterck said.

Platinum and palladium are effectively interchangeable in gasoline autocatalysts, which account for 80% of total palladium demand. Consultancy Metals Focus estimates total palladium and platinum demand at 9.7 million ounces and 8.1 million ounces, respectively.

“We are already seeing substitution slowing down or in some cases stopping,” said Nikos Kavalis at Metals Focus, adding that the process would eventually reverse.

“It won’t be an overnight change, as autocatalyst designs can happen a long time before cars actually come off the production line.”

Palladium prices currently trade at a $50 an ounce premium to platinum prices compared with $700 a year ago.

The spread between them of less than 20% makes the research and development aimed at platinum for palladium substitution less attractive, said a source at a major platinum and palladium miner.

This eases the pressure on palladium but it is not enough to lift prices as accumulated stocks at fabricators and manufacturers are still large and fundamental long-term factors – the spread of EVs and recycling activity – are still present, he added.

Metals Focus estimates above-ground palladium stocks at 11.6 million ounces in 2023.

(By Brijesh Patel and Polina Devitt)

Pursuant to a subscription agreement entered Friday, Samsung intends to purchase $18.5 million worth of Canada Nickel’s common shares at C$1.57 per share. Upon closing, Samsung will own approximately 8.7% of the company’s outstanding share capital.

The battery maker will also be granted the right to purchase a 10% equity interest in the Crawford project for $100.5 million, exercisable upon a final construction decision. This would give Samsung the right to 10% of the nickel-cobalt production from the Crawford project over the life of mine, and the right to an additional 20% of production for 15 years, extendable by mutual agreement.

Shares of Canada Nickel Company gained 3.1% to C$1.63 apiece by 12:30 p.m. EDT in Toronto Friday on the Samsung investment. Its market capitalization rose to C$231.6 million ($172.7 million) accordingly.

Crawford is currently host to the world’s second-largest nickel resource, totalling 2.46 billion tonnes at 0.24% nickel for 13.3 billion lb. of contained nickel, according to a feasibility study issued in October, which pegged the project’s after-tax net present value (8% discount) at $2.6 billion and internal rate of return at 18.3%.

The proposed operation will consist of two open pits complemented by an on-site mill, to be completed in two phases to allow for throughput ramp-up, the study showed. Total capital cost for the two phases is estimated at $3.5 billion.

Over a 41-year project life, total metal production is calculated at 3.54 billion lb. of nickel, 52.9 million lb. of cobalt, 490,000 oz. of palladium and platinum, 58 million tonnes of iron, and 6.2 million lb. of chromium. First production is targeted for 2027.

Uniquely, the mine will be a net negative contributor to global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, thanks to its ability to geologically sequester 1.5 million tonnes of carbon per year. There will also be room to capture and store 30 million tonnes of carbon from third parties.

“As we advance the Crawford nickel sulphide project, it is critical to form long-term partnerships with companies that truly understand how crucial this production is for electric vehicle supply chains across North America and Europe,” Canada Nickel CEO Mark Selby said in a news release.

“As one of the world’s leading electric vehicle battery manufacturers, Samsung SDI not only understands our vital role in these supply chains, but also believes in Canada Nickel’s vision for responsible, large-scale, net-zero carbon nickel production.”

Samsung is not the only new big investor in Canada Nickel and its Crawford project. Last week, Canada’s largest gold producer Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX: AEM; NYSE: AEM) invested C$23.1 million for a 12% stake in the nickel developer.

In a paper published in the journal Science, the researchers explain that the chemical feedstock they worked on, propylene oxide, is an organic compound used in various applications, including manufacturing foams, plastics, and antifreeze, as well as for disinfection and sterilization. Traditionally, propylene oxide is produced by reacting propylene with either hypochlorous acid or hydrogen peroxide.

The problem is that when hypochlorous acid is used, there is a chloride byproduct that is usually discharged into the environment and this has led to fewer permits being granted to plants that use the hypochlorous acid process.

In response to this, some industries have shifted toward peroxide-based processes. The issue here is that when hydrogen peroxide is in contact with organic compounds, there is a looming hazard of explosions.

Given this state of affairs, the Caltech group decided to develop a safe method for propylene epoxide production that did not produce an environmental discharge or have a large carbon footprint. 

H2O to the rescue

The team began by looking for a catalyst capable of producing propylene epoxide using the oxygen atom found in a water molecule. The only side product would be hydrogen gas, which can be used as a fuel or in manufacturing other chemicals.

“The whole premise was that water is safe,” head researcher Karthish Manthiram said in a media statement. “It doesn’t present an intrinsic safety hazard, and there’s no environmentally harmful side product from the process. Instead, you’re making hydrogen, which is something that we need to be making more of in the future. That’s where we started.”

The group narrowed in on two catalysts: platinum oxide and palladium oxide. Both performed the reaction the team wanted, but not sufficiently well enough to be useful. Platinum oxide produced propylene epoxide at high rates, but messily, creating many unwanted side products. In contrast, palladium oxide produced propylene epoxide with fewer side products, but it did so rather slowly.

“Putting the two together actually ended up solving the problem,” Minju Chung, lead author of the paper, said. “Then we spent a lot of time understanding why that mixture works better. It’s not a straightforward explanation.”

Using X-ray absorption spectroscopy, the scientists determined that in a mixture of platinum oxide and palladium oxide, the platinum exists in a state that makes it a more efficient catalyst.

“It turns out that one of the most dramatic effects of going from platinum oxide to palladium–platinum oxide is that you can stabilize the platinum in a higher oxidation state,” Manthiram said.

“When in a higher oxidation state, the oxygen attached to the platinum is more deprived of electrons, making it more reactive with the electron-rich propylene. We see through a whole series of experiments that stabilizing platinum in a higher oxidation state leads to significantly improved rates and efficiencies of propylene epoxidation.”

Using the new catalyst, the rate of propylene oxide production is 10 times higher than what had previously been achieved, and the efficiency is increased by 13%.

Manthiram pointed out that future research will focus on testing the catalyst to see how it can be taken from a laboratory setup into industrial settings. That will require analyses that examine how long the catalyst lasts before it degrades and how well it performs at larger scales, as well as the development of a process for removing the propylene epoxide from the system as it is produced.

At the end of 2023, the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners reached a combined $1.42 trillion, up a healthy, if far from spectacular $48.7 billion over the course of 2023. Mining’s top tier is also worth $330 billion less than in March 2022.

Metal and mineral markets are volatile at the best of times – the nickel, cobalt and lithium price collapse in 2023 was extreme but not entirely unprecedented. Rare earth producers, platinum group metal watchers, iron ore followers, and gold and silver bugs for that matter, have been through worse.

Mining companies have become better at navigating choppy waters and as a whole the majors performed fairly consistently last year despite geopolitical and market turmoil, but within the ranking, 2023 fortunes were made and lost over what seemed like days.

The forced closure of one of the world’s biggest copper mines – and the subsequent collapse of owner First Quantum Minerals stock – served as a stark reminder of the outsized risks miners face over and above market swings.

Panama root canal

After months of protests and political pressure, at the end of November the Panama government ordered the closure of First Quantum Minerals’ Cobre Panama mine following a ruling by the Supreme Court that declared the mining contract for the operation unconstitutional.

Public figures, including climate activist Greta Thunberg and Hollywood actor Leonardo Di Caprio backed the protests and shared a video calling for the “mega mine” to cease operations, which quickly went viral. 

That mining cobre is at the nexus of the green energy transition is clearly an irony lost on those trying to save the world.  FQM is seeking arbitration and completely winding down operations will take time, but a reopening of Cobre Panama is not on the cards. 

From 25th position in the ranking at the end of March 2022 and a valuation well above $20 billion, the November-December sell off saw FQM drop out of the top tier altogether, ending 2023 at number 58 with a market cap below $6 billion. 

Cobre Panama supplied more than 40% of the company’s revenue, and with nickel prices plummeting FQM has also been forced to suspend operations at its Raventhorpe mine in Australia. 

Amid the inevitable takeover rumours now in circulation, shares in the Vancouver-based company have rallied in 2024, but still not enough to reenter the top 50.

No. 12 with a bullet 

If 2023 was an annus horribilis for FQM it was mirabilis for Amman Mineral Internasional. Stock in the Indonesian firm surged by 269% from its July debut in Jakarta to reach a market capitalisation of more than $30 billion at the end of last year – and number 12 in the ranking. 

That valuation is quite an achievement on annual revenue of $2 billion no matter how fat margins are at the company’s Batu Hijau copper and gold mine.  Batu Hijau is the third largest mine worldwide in terms of copper equivalent output (but no match for Cobre Panama when it comes to the orange metal alone)  and has been in production since the turn of the millennium. Amman is also developing the adjacent Elang project on the island of Sumbawa. 

Amman Minerals’ ascent has minted at least six new billionaires and the stock appears to be building on its success in 2024, rising by double digits in January already.

Indonesia’s other major mining IPO, Harita Nickel, was on a different trajectory altogether. After listing in April and raising $672m, the company has had a tough go of it and the stock has shed more than 38% since then as nickel prices continue to decline.

Shiny gold, dull silver, tarnished PGMs

The price of gold hit an all-time record on December 1, 2023.  But bullion’s best ever level passed without the usual fanfare and despite bullish indications for 2024, gold mining stocks did not exactly storm the rankings of the most valuable miners.

Over the course of 2023 gold and royalty companies on the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners added a collective $20.8 billion in market cap. 

And judging by gold miners’ performance so far this year, gold above $2,000 is not providing enough support. Newmont is already down 17%, Barrick has shed 13% and Agnico Eagle shareholders are 9% poorer. 

The number of precious metals companies in the top 50 has also been relatively stable over the years. With Newmont’s absorption of Newcrest now complete, the open slot was taken up by Kinross, which spent a few years in the wilderness. 

Anglogold Ashanti was just edged out by Jiangxi Copper for position number 50 on the last trading days of 2023, but based on its performance so far in 2024 the London-listed company is already back among the top tier. Indeed Anglogold is the only major gold player in the black year to date.

Silver has not been able to ride gold’s coattails and the top 50 has not had a silver specialist for a few years after Fresnillo dropped out (now at #61) and while Pan American Silver has come close in recent years at the end of last year it made it to #58 only. 

The exit of platinum and palladium majors like Sibanye Stillwater and Impala Platinum, now both valued at less than $4 billion, made space for Royal Gold to reenter at 47 at the end of last year, up from 57th in 2022. 

After a dismal 2023, the sole remaining PGM specialist Anglo American Platinum looks likely to lose more ground this quarter as palladium and platinum prices continue to slide into the new year.

Not too tough at the top 

London-listed Anglo American has had a rough year in part due to its exposure to platinum group metals and control of AngloPlat, and is now valued at $30 billion after peaking at $70 billion in March 2021.  

Were it not for the London-listed company’s iron ore operations, the 40%-plus slump in share value may have been deeper. Rumours that Glencore may be sniffing around now that the Swiss behemoth’s bid for all of Teck Resources has soured is also keeping Anglo from falling further down the rankings .  

Investors in Anglo, with a history going back more than a hundred years on the South African gold and diamond fields, have had a particularly wild ride over the last few years. In January 2016, Anglo’s market cap fell below $5 billion after it came close to suffocating under a pile of debt.  

Against expectations, iron ore seems to be holding above $120 a tonne, Chinese property bankruptcies and Beijing’s tepid stimulus response notwithstanding. 

Iron ore’s resilience despite Chinese troubles has also kept the share prices of the other diversified majors, which make their fattest profits from the steelmaking ingredient, from skidding. 

The top 10 mining companies have been able to keep their share of the total above 50% for a few years now. Not quite the magnificent seven, but size does matter in mining, particularly when access to capital is no longer a headache but a migraine. 

Expectations of another active year of M&A in the sector is likely to make the Top 50 top-heavier, especially now that it’s painfully obvious just how one-commodity companies like the lithium stocks can so easily be derailed. Coal miners’ strong 2023 suggests there are still exceptional minerals that prove the rule.   

Lithium losers 

After defying gravity early on, the combined losses for lithium miners in the top 50 climbed to nearly $30 billion in market cap over the 12 month period. Four counters occupy the worst performance table for 2023. 

The M&A drama surrounding Liontown, Albermarle and Hancock Prospecting turned out to be a soap opera and Chile’s move to take control of its lithium industry now appears far less consequential than feared.

Despite the precipitous decline in lithium prices in 2023, after hitting all time highs above $80,000 a tonne in November 2022, none of the battery metal miners’ stock performance was dire enough to drop out of the Top 50.

The merger of Livent and Allkem to form Arcadium Lithium could in fact up lithium mining’s representation in the ranking to seven should Pilbara Minerals’ January bleeding be stanched. But with lithium prices far from stabilizing, the battery metal’s presence in the top 50 may fade further. 

Pilbara Minerals, which unlike its peers was still able to show share price gains last year,  joined the Top 50 last year, bringing the number of companies based in the Western Australia capital to five, surpassing the tally of Vancouver, BC as the top home base in the ranking. 

With the exit of First Quantum, three mining companies in the top 50 call Vancouver home while the return of Kinross saw the ranks of Toronto-headquartered miners move back up to four.  

Nuclear options

Uranium prices more than doubled during 2023 and recently hit triple digits for the first time in 16 years. The breakthrough for the nuclear fuel comes after a decade in the doldrums following the Fukushima disaster in Japan.

Canada’s Cameco made the best quarterly performer list once again in Q4 and after doubling in market worth in 2023.  The Saskatoon-based company now sits at no 23 in the ranking after jumping 22 places since end-2022.    

The value of shares in Kazatomprom, the world number one uranium producer, topped $10 billion at the end of 2023, placing it at position 38.  Until last year the state-owned Kazakh company was outside earshot of the Top 50 since its dual-listing in London and Astana in 2018.  

None of the smaller uranium companies are likely to pierce the top 50 by themselves, but combinations among the rank and file may edge in when countries aiming to ditch fossil fuels stop thinking they can have their yellowcake and eat it too.

*NOTES:

Source: MINING.COM, Morningstar, GoogleFinance, company reports. Trading data from primary-listed exchange at December 28 2023 to January 2, 2024 where applicable, currency cross-rates January 2, 2024. 

Percentage change based on US$ market cap difference, not share price change in local currency.

As with any ranking, criteria for inclusion are contentious. We decided to exclude unlisted and state-owned enterprises at the outset due to a lack of information. That, of course, excludes giants like Chile’s Codelco, Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining, which owns the world’s largest gold mine, Eurochem, a major potash firm, and a number of entities in China and developing countries around the world.

Another central criterion was the depth of involvement in the industry before an enterprise can rightfully be called a mining company.

For instance, should smelter companies or commodity traders that own minority stakes in mining assets be included, especially if these investments have no operational component or warrant a seat on the board?

This is a common structure in Asia and excluding these types of companies removed well-known names like Japan’s Marubeni and Mitsui, Korea Zinc and Chile’s Copec. 

Levels of operational or strategic involvement and size of shareholding were other central considerations. Do streaming and royalty companies that receive metals from mining operations without shareholding qualify or are they just specialised financing vehicles? We included Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals on the basis of their deep involvement in the industry.

Vertically integrated concerns like Alcoa and energy companies such as Shenhua Energy or Bayan Resources where power, ports and railways make up a large portion of revenues pose a problem. The revenue mix also tends to change alongside volatile coal prices. Same goes for battery makers like CATL which is increasingly moving upstream, but where mining still makes up a small portion of its valuation.  

Another consideration is diversified companies such as Anglo American with separately listed majority-owned subsidiaries. We’ve included Angloplat in the ranking but excluded Kumba Iron Ore in which Anglo has a 70% stake to avoid double counting. Similarly we excluded Hindustan Zinc which is listed separately but majority owned by Vedanta.

Many steelmakers own and often operate iron ore and other metal mines, but in the interest of balance and diversity we excluded the steel industry, and with that many companies that have substantial mining assets including giants like ArcelorMittal, Magnitogorsk, Ternium, Baosteel and many others.

Head office refers to operational headquarters wherever applicable, for example BHP and Rio Tinto are shown as Melbourne, Australia, but Antofagasta is the exception that proves the rule. We consider the company’s HQ to be in London, where it has been listed since the late 1800s.

Please let us know of any errors, omissions, deletions or additions to the ranking or suggest a different methodology.

Commodity analysts said technical factors also played a part as palladium fell by 3% to $1,033 a troy ounce by 1859 GMT, its lowest since Dec. 14 when the UK restrictions were announced and the market was concerned about their possible expansion in future.

Russia, which is being punished by widening western sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, is home to Nornickel. It has not been directly targeted by the sanctions so far, but it mines 40% of the world’s palladium.

“We had quite a big rally in palladium before the holiday, However, the price rally did not really catalyse as prices are reversing now,” Ryan McKay, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.

“Speculators, physical traders and CTAs are holding onto their short positions,” he said, referring to Commodity Trade Advisor (CTA) investment funds, which are largely driven by computer programmes.

TD Securities sees palladium prices at $1,050 per ounce in the first quarter.

In 2023, palladium prices fell by 39%, the metal’s deepest yearly fall since 2008.

The use of palladium in catalytic converters to reduce harmful emissions from internal combustion engines currently accounts for 80% of global demand for the metal.

The shift to battery vehicles could massively reduce demand for palladium, although some miners are working on the development of products that could boost consumption.

(By Polina Devitt, Ashitha Shivaprasad and Anjana Anil; Editing by Barbara Lewis)

Canada Nickel raised total proceeds of C$34.7 million in the entire unit offering.

Each unit consists of one flow-through share and 0.35 of one flow-through share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase an additional common share at a price of C$1.77 any time prior to Dec. 29, 2026, or the expiry date.

Agnico Eagle said it made the purchase for investment purposes.

Canada Nickel’s flagship project is the Crawford nickel sulphide deposit in Ontario, for which it released a feasibility study in October 2023. According top the new study, Crawford contains the world’s second largest nickel resources which total 2.46 billion tonnes at 0.24% nickel, containing 13.30 billion lb. of nickel.

Over an initial life of 41 years, the project will produce 3.54 billion lb. of nickel, 52.9 million lb. of cobalt, 490,000 oz. of palladium and platinum, 58 million tonnes of iron, and 6.2 million lb. of chromium.

The company said it will use its in-process tailings (IPT) method of carbonization to create an eco-friendly project. IPT involves injecting a concentrated source of CO₂ into tailings in the mill. The carbon is geologically sequestered in the tails while they are in the processing circuit, rather than after.

“The proceeds from this offering will help us continue to unlock the potential of our Timmins nickel district, which we believe has the potential to be one of the world’s largest nickel sulphide district,” Canada Nickel CEO Mark Selby said in a news release.

“This potential, combined with our novel IPT carbonation process to capture and store CO₂, provides a foundation for a zero-carbon industrial cluster in northern Ontario.”

A year where the gold price sets an all-time record should be unalloyed good news for the mining and exploration industry, which despite all the buzz surrounding battery metals and the energy transition still represents the backbone of the junior market.

Metal and mineral markets are volatile at the best of times – the nickel, cobalt and lithium price collapse in 2023 was extreme but not entirely unprecedented. Rare earth producers, platinum group metal watchers, iron ore followers, and gold and silver bugs for that matter, have been through worse.

Mining companies have become better at navigating choppy waters, but the forced closure of one of the biggest copper mines to come into production in recent decades served as a stark reminder of the outsized risks miners face over and above market swings.

Panama shuts down giant copper mine

After months of protests and political pressure, at the end of November the Panama government ordered the closure of First Quantum Minerals’ Cobre Panama mine following a ruling by the Supreme Court that declared the mining contract for the operation unconstitutional.

Public figures including climate activist Greta Thunberg and Hollywood actor Leonardo Di Caprio backed the protests and shared a video calling for the “mega mine” to cease operations, which quickly went viral. 

FQM’s latest statement on Friday said Panama’s government hasn’t provided a legal basis to the Vancouver-based company for pursuing the closure plan, a plan that the industries ministry of the central American nation said will only be presented in June next year.

FQM has filed two notices of arbitration over the closure of the mine, which has not been operating since protesters blocked access to its shipping port in October. However, arbitration would not be the company’s preferred outcome, said CEO Tristan Pascall.

In the aftermath of the unrest, FQM has said it should have better communicated the value of the $10 billion mine to the wider public, and will now spend more time engaging with Panamanians ahead of a national election next year. FQM shares have bounced in the past week, but is still trading more than 50% below the high hit during July this year.

Projected copper deficit evaporates

Cobre Panama’s shutdown and unexpected operational disruptions forcing copper mining companies to slash output has seen the sudden removal of around 600,000 tons of expected supply would, moving the market from a large expected surplus into balance, or even a deficit.

The next couple of years were supposed to be a time of plenty for copper, thanks to a series of big new projects starting up around the world.

The expectation across most of the industry was for a comfortable surplus before the market tightens again later this decade when surging demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure is expected to collide with a lack of new mines.

Instead, the mining industry has highlighted how vulnerable supply can be — whether due to political and social opposition, the difficulty of developing new operations, or simply the day-to-day challenge of pulling rocks up from deep beneath the earth.

Lithium price routed on supply surge

The price of lithium was decimated in 2023, but predictions for next year are far from rosy. Lithium demand from electric vehicles is still growing rapidly, but the supply response has overwhelmed the market.

Global lithium supply, meanwhile, will jump by 40% in 2024, UBS said earlier this month, to more than 1.4 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent.

Output in top producers Australia and Latin America will rise 22% and 29% respectively, while that in Africa is expected to double, driven by projects in Zimbabwe, the bank said.

Chinese production will also jump 40% in the next two years, said UBS, driven by a major CATL project in southern Jiangxi province.

The investment bank expects Chinese lithium carbonate prices could fall by more than 30% next year, dipping as low as 80,000 yuan ($14,800) per tonne in 2024, averaging at around 100,000 yuan, equivalent to production costs in Jiangxi, China’s biggest producing region of the chemical.

Lithium assets still in high demand

In October, Albemarle Corp. walked away from its $4.2 billion takeover of Liontown Resources Ltd., after Australia’s richest woman built up a blocking minority and effectively scuppered one of the largest battery-metals deals to date.

Eager to add new supply, Albemarle had pursued its Perth-based target for months, eying its Kathleen Valley project — one of Australia’s most promising deposits. Liontown agreed to the US company’s “best and final” offer of A$3 a share in September — a near 100% premium to the price before Albemarle’s takeover interest was made public in March.

Albemarle had to contend with the arrival of combative mining tycoon Gina Rinehart, as her Hancock Prospecting steadily built up a 19.9% stake in Liontown. Last week, she became the single largest investor, with enough clout to potentially block a shareholder vote on the deal.

In December, SQM teamed up with Hancock Prospecting to make a sweetened A$1.7 billion ($1.14 billion) bid for Australian lithium developer Azure Minerals, the three parties said on Tuesday.

The deal would give the world’s no.2 lithium producer SQM a foothold in Australia with a stake in Azure’s Andover project and a partnership with Hancock, which has rail infrastructure and local experience in developing mines.

Chile, Mexico take control of lithium

This week Chile’s President Gabriel Boric hailed the formation of a new government-controlled lithium partnership that fuses assets of state-run Codelco with private miner SQM, as the leftist leader advances his push for greater public control over the battery metal. 

SQM said it would partner with copper giant Codelco for the future development and production of the metal in the Atacama salt flat, in a tie-up set to kick off in 2025 and run through 2060.

The deal gives Codelco majority control in line with the president’s plans announced in April to strengthen state control of lithium to generate more broad-based benefits from surging demand and to allow only public-private partnerships to participate in its exploitation.

For much of the year, the firms had been locked in talks over the future of lithium mining and production in the salt flat, located in Chile’s north and the home to 90% of the nation’s lithium reserves. The South American country has the world’s largest proven lithium reserves.

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in February signed a decree handing over responsibility for lithium reserves to the energy ministry.

Lopez Obrador urged the private sector to work with the new state miner, saying the size of the investment needed means the government needs partners.

But analysts argue that companies are more likely to focus near-term investments in Chile or Argentina’s sprawling salt flats, where industries are more established and policies more market-friendly.

In August, Chinese lithium giant Ganfeng said Mexico’s mining authorities had issued a notice to its local subsidiaries indicating nine of its concessions had been terminated.

Gold to build on record-setting year

The New York futures price of gold set an all-time high at the beginning of December and looks set to surpass the peak going into the new year. 

London’s gold price benchmark hit an all-time high of $2,069.40 per troy ounce at an afternoon auction on Wednesday, surpassing the previous record of $2,067.15 set in August 2020, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) said.

“I can think of no clearer demonstration of gold’s role as a store of value than the enthusiasm with which investors across the world have turned to the metal during the recent economic and geopolitical turmoils,” said LMBA’s chief executive officer Ruth Crowell. 

JPMorgan predicted a new record back in July but expected the new high to occur in the second quarter of 2024. The basis of JPMorgan’s optimism for 2024 – falling US interest rates – remains intact:

“The bank has an average price target of $2,175 an ounce for bullion in the final quarter of 2024, with risks skewed to the upside on a forecast for a mild US recession that’s likely to hit sometime before the Fed starts easing.”

Even as gold climbed new peaks, exploration spending on the precious metal dipped. A study published in November overall mining exploration budgets fell this year for the first time since 2020, dropping 3% to $12.8 billion at the 2,235 companies that allocated funds to find or expand deposits.

Despite the sparkling gold price, gold exploration budgets, which historically have been driven more by the junior mining sector than any other metal or mineral, dropped by 16% or $1.1 billion year-on-year to just under $6 billion, representing 46% of the global total. 

That’s down from 54% in 2022 amid higher spending on lithium, nickel and other battery metals, a surge in spending on uranium and rare earths and an uptick for copper. 

Mining’s year of M&A, spin-offs, IPOs, and SPAC deals

In December, speculation about Anglo American (LON: AAL) becoming the target of a takeover by a rival or a private equity firm mounted, as weakness in the shares of the diversified miner persisted.

If Anglo American doesn’t turn operations around and its share price continues to lag, Jefferies analysts say they can’t “rule out the possibility that Anglo is involved in the broader trend of industry consolidation,” according to their research note.

In October, Newcrest Mining shareholders voted strongly in favour of accepting the roughly $17 billion buyout bid from global gold mining giant Newmont Corporation.

Newmont (NYSE: NEM) plans to raise $2 billion in cash through mine sales and project divestments following the acquisition. The acquisition brings the company’s value to around $50 billion and adds five active mines and two advanced projects to Newmont’s portfolio.

Breakups and spin-offs were also a big part of 2023 corporate developments.

After being rebuffed several times in its bid to buy all of Teck Resources, Glencore and its Japanese partner are in a better position to bring the $9 billion bid for the diversified Canadian miner’s coal unit to a close. Glencore CEO Gary Nagle’s initial bid for the entire company faced stiff opposition from Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government and from the premier of British Columbia, where the company is based.

Vale (NYSE: VALE) is not seeking new partners for its base metals unit following a recent equity sale, but could consider an IPO for the unit within three or four years, CEO Eduardo Bartolomeo said in October.

Vale recruited former Anglo American Plc boss Mark Cutifani in April to lead an independent board to oversee the $26-billion copper and nickel unit created in July when the Brazilian parent company sold 10% to Saudi fund Manara Minerals.

Shares in Indonesian copper and gold miner, PT Amman Mineral Internasional, have surged more than fourfold since listing in July and are set to keep rising after its inclusion in major emerging market indexes in November.

Amman Mineral’s $715 million IPO was the largest in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy this year and counted on strong demand by global and domestic funds.

Not all dealmaking went smoothly this year.

Announced in June, a $1 billion metals deal by blank-cheque fund ACG Acquisition Co to acquire a Brazilian nickel and and a copper-gold mine from Appian Capital, was terminated in September.

The deal was backed by Glencore, Chrysler parent Stellantis and Volkswagen’s battery unit PowerCo through an equity investment, but as nickel prices slumped there was a lack of interest from minority investors at the stage of the $300 million equity offering which ACG planned as part of the deal.

Talks in 2022 to acquire the mines also fell through after bidder Sibanye-Stillwater pulled out. That transaction is now the subject of legal proceedings after Appian filed a $1.2 billion claim against the South African miner.

Uranium upsurge

In late November uranium prices scaled $80 per pound for the first time in 15 years, driven by a resurgence in demand for nuclear power and supply disruptions.

Global yellowcake supply might reach 145 million lb. this year or next according to the World Nuclear Association. But annual demand is already at 180 million lb. and the industry group expects it to nearly double to 300 million lb. by 2040.

Some 60 nuclear plants are under construction globally and more are planned. Countries like Germany and Japan that considered phasing them out are reversing course.

Activity in northern Saskatchewan’s Athabasca uranium hotspot is intensifying. NexGen received environmental approval for its Rook I project in November, the province’s first OK for such a project in two decades. Denison Mines released a feasibility study for its Wheeler River project before investing in junior explorer F3 Uranium’s Patterson Lake North property.

Also, IsoEnergy took over Consolidated Uranium in September. Uranium Energy spent C$570 million over the past two years buying Uranium One, UEX Corp. and Rio Tinto’s Roughrider project. Cameco and Brookfield Renewable Partners in October closed their deal to buy Westinghouse’s nuclear plant construction unit for $7.9 billion.

Nickel nosedive

In April, Indonesia’s PT Trimegah Bangun Persada, better known as Harita Nickel, raised 10 trillion rupiah ($672 million) in what was then Indonesia’s largest initial public offering of the year. 

Harita Nickel’s IPO quickly turned sour for investors, however, as prices for the metal entered a steady and long decline. Nickel is the worst performer among the base metals, nearly halving in value after starting 2023 trading above $30,000 a tonne.

Next year is not looking great for the devil’s copper either with top producer Nornickel predicting a widening surplus due to lacklustre demand from electric vehicles and a ramp-up in supply from Indonesia, which also comes with a thick layer of cobalt:

“…due to the continuing destocking cycle in the EV supply chain, a greater share of non-nickel LFP batteries, and a partial shift from BEV to PHEV sales in China. Meanwhile, the launch of new Indonesian nickel capacities continued at a high pace.” 

Palladium also had a rough year, down by more than a third in 2023 despite a late charge from multi-year lows hit at the start of December. Palladium was last trading at $1,150 an ounce.

China flexes its critical mineral muscle

In July China announced it will clamp down on exports of two obscure yet crucial metals in an escalation of the trade war on technology with the US and Europe.

Beijing said exporters will need to apply for licenses from the commerce ministry if they want to start or continue to ship gallium and germanium out of the country and will be required to report details of the overseas buyers and their applications.

China is overwhelmingly the top source of both metals — accounting for 94% of gallium supply and 83% of germanium, according to a European Union study on critical raw materials this year. The two metals have a vast array of specialist uses across chipmaking, communications equipment and defence.

In October, China said it would require export permits for some graphite products to protect national security. China is the world’s top graphite producer and exporter. It also refines more than 90% of the world’s graphite into the material that is used in virtually all EV battery anodes, which is the negatively charged portion of a battery.

US miners said China’s move underscores the need for Washington to ease its own permit review process. Nearly one-third of the graphite consumed in the United States comes from China, according to the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents auto supply chain companies.

In December, Beijing banned the export of technology to make rare earth magnets on Thursday, adding it to a ban already in place on technology to extract and separate the critical materials.

Rare earths are a group of 17 metals used to make magnets that turn power into motion for use in electric vehicles, wind turbines and electronics.

While Western countries are trying to launch their own rare earth processing operations, the ban is expected to have the biggest impact on so-called “heavy rare earths,” used in electric vehicle motors, medical devices and weaponry, where China has a virtual monopoly on refining.

According to the group, a flatter, thinner surface would use fewer precious metals and increase the available surface area for the reaction.

In a paper published in the journal ACS Nano, the scientists explain that their discovery should increase the eco-friendliness of the energy-making process that involves using Pd in electrolysis to separate water into hydrogen and oxygen and employing such hydrogen in fuel cells to create electricity.

In detail, the researchers developed a ‘one-pot method’ that allows for the manufacturing, in a single glass bottle, of sheets that were so thin (1~2 nm) that they could be compared to the size of a single molecule or DNA strand.

“Nanosheets can be synthesized at a low temperature of 75°C in a single hour with no special reaction vessel,” head researcher Minoru Osada said in a media statement. “Although the conventional synthesis method struggles to synthesize nanosheets with a uniform thickness and size, our one-pot method can easily do this.”

Osada noted that the new nanosheets offer great improvements over existing technology. 

“Our 2D nanosheets have 2.8 times more surface area than spherical nanoparticles because of their sheet-like shape,” he said. “They had over twice the catalytic activity of the current generation of hydrogen evolution catalysts in performance tests.”

Since hydrogen reactions are important for many industries, this research promises to have a transformative impact.

“To date, Pd nanoparticles have been widely used as important catalysts for various chemical reactions ranging from gas purification to pharmaceutical synthesis. Pd nanosheets may potentially replace conventional Pd catalysts and revolutionize these processes,” Osada said.

Rhodium has lost two thirds of its market value and palladium a third during 2023, pushing the six-element PGM basket price to $1,250 per oz., two thirds lower than its peak in April 2021, the World Platinum Investment Council says in a report released on Thursday.

The PGM supply deficit is forecast at 8% of demand through 2027 while above ground stocks may fall by 70% during the period to 1.4 million oz., the council said. A quarter of mines are operating unprofitably and putting them on care and maintenance will worsen the supply problem, it said.

“The decline in PGM basket prices over the last 12 months has materially undermined the economic sustainability of significant portions of primary supply,” the council said. “Markets are already projected to be in deficit through our two- to five-year forecast horizon. This, we believe, strengthens the investment case for platinum.”

The price drop is partially due to how supplies from the main PGM producers South Africa and Russia haven’t been disrupted as much as the industry predicted. Declines in their currencies haven’t offset lower prices in US dollars and production cost inflation, putting profitability of their miners at risk. It is forcing mines to increase production to reduce unit costs, sell excess inventory to generate more cash, slash capital spending, renegotiate supply agreements and cut dividend payments.

Output at risk

Mothballing mines to weather the poor prices could put 1.3 million oz. of platinum output and 1.2 million oz. of palladium production at risk, the council said. Primary platinum production is forecast to average about 5.6 million oz. a year between 2020 to 2024, which is 9% lower than the five-year annual average production of 6.1 million oz. from 2015 to 2019, according to the report. Palladium output may fall 6%, the council said.

The ramp up of projects at Northam Platinum’s Booysendal, Eland and Zondereinde; African Rainbow Minerals’ Two Rivers; Implala Platinum Holdings’ (JSE: IMP) Styldrift and Zimplats; Sibanye-Stillwater’s (JSE: SSW; NYSE: SBSW) Stillwater and K4; and Anglo American’s (LSE: ALL) Motololo could add about 1 million oz. of annual PGM production growth, the council said.

Mines depend on prices when fixed costs account for about a quarter of an open pit mine and two thirds of an underground mine, the council says. The earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization of primary PGM miners have fallen an average of 54% in this year’s first half compared to the same period in 2022. That’s more than double the 21% revenue drop during the same period.

Still, some miners have an operating cushion after higher prices during 2020-22.

“Being largely debt free should provide some headroom to take one or several short-term actions to improve or tolerate current margins,” the council said. “However, we estimate that these types of actions are only likely to reduce loss-making ounces by 5-10%.”

Prices of metals produced by Russia surged as panicky traders struggled to understand how widespread the impact of the measures would be. Aluminum rose as much as 3.7% and copper 3.1%. Palladium, which isn’t covered, jumped as much as 12%.

In legislation published by the UK government, new restrictions were introduced stating a UK person “must not directly or indirectly acquire metals which originate in Russia or are located in Russia.”

The document listed copper, nickel, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin and cobalt as being subject to the restriction but didn’t reference precious metals such as palladium.

It wasn’t immediately clear how wide the impact of the sanctions would be. While the UK is not a significant consumer of metals, many companies are incorporated there, including significant traders such as Glencore Plc and many major banks.

Some Western companies and banks seek to comply with all US, European Union and UK sanctions, potentially giving the measure greater force.

The London Metal Exchange, its members and clients had been granted a license allowing the continued trade of Russian metals on the exchange, the bourse said, and it expected that the sanctions wouldn’t impact trading access to the LME.

“The LME understands that the UK Government’s intention when introducing the recent sanctions in respect of Russian metal is (among other things) to prevent UK persons acquiring physical Russian metal,” the exchange said in a notice to members.

Still, the rules potentially may prevent UK persons from withdrawing Russian metal they buy on the bourse starting Dec. 15, it said. The bulk of the new rules enter force Friday; the remainder do so Dec. 26.

Representatives for the UK Treasury and Foreign Office didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Anne-Marie Trevelyan, a foreign office minister with responsibility for sanctions, said in a Linkedin post that the UK was announcing “new measures which will disrupt Putin’s ability to supply and fund his war machine,” including “a ban on the import of Russian metals and diamonds, Russia’s largest export sectors after oil and gas.”

An explanatory memorandum published alongside the legislation referred to “limited exceptions” to the metals restrictions.

“These specifically cover ‘old stock’ goods: goods of Russian origin having left Russia, legally, prior to their relevant prohibition dates,” it said.

Russia is a major producer of aluminum, copper and zinc. The LME already restricts deliveries of Russian metal into its UK warehouses after prior government sanctions and trade limits.

It tightened those restrictions Thursday but added there currently isn’t any Russian metal warranted in LME-listed warehouses in Britain.

(By Jack Farchy and Mark Burton)

Read More: Palladium price surges 12% as UK sanctions target Russia metals

The metal that’s mainly used in catalytic converters surged as much as 12% on Thursday after the UK published measures that ban British citizens and entities from buying certain Russian metals.

While the measures didn’t target palladium supplies from Russia, which account for 40% of new mine supply, broader concerns about disruption were enough to propel the metal to the highest since Nov. 7. Traders with bearish positions covering their bets also fueled its gain.

Palladium is still down 38% this year as demand from automakers faltered thanks to de-stocking and the use of cheaper platinum in its place. Supplies from top miners Russia and South Africa have also not faced the kind of disruption that many investors feared.

(By Eddie Spence)

Like most of its peers, the company has been hit by weak commodity prices and rising costs globally. Its stock, currently trading at 1,714p, is down almost 48% this year, which means the copper, diamonds, iron ore and platinum miner has lost about £30 billion (almost $38bn) of its value so far this year.

Anglo’s shares suffered their biggest one-day fall since March 2020 on Friday when the miner cut overall production targets by 4% for 2024 and a further 3% for 2025.

Brokerage firm Jefferies and banks, as well as Barclays and RBC, have cut their target price for the stock in response. They noted than Anglo American has significantly underperformed other London-traded top miners such as Rio Tinto (LON: RIO), which is down less than 6% this year, and Glencore (LON: GLEN), down only 1% so far in 2023.

If Anglo American doesn’t turn operations around and its share price continues to lag, Jefferies analysts say they can’t “rule out the possibility that Anglo is involved in the broader trend of industry consolidation,” according to their research note.

Analysts at Bernstein Research agree. They say that Anglo’s low valuation and diversified portfolio makes it an attractive target for potential acquirers, who could unlock value by selling off some of the assets or restructuring operations. 

Bernstein estimates that a bidder could pay a 30% premium to Anglo’s current market value and still generate a return of 15% on their investment. 

“We believe Anglo American is the most likely takeover candidate in the sector,” they wrote in a note to clients. “We think the company is undervalued, undermanaged and underappreciated.”

Logistical issues

Chief executive Duncan Wanblad, who took the reins in April 2022,  said on Friday that logistical difficulties at its top copper mines in Peru and Chile, as well as at its South African unit, Kumba Iron Ore, had led to the cut in production forecasts. He also said the company would cut capital expenditure by $1.8 billion by 2026.

Key operating issues over and above prior expectations included suspending Los Bronces’ older plant (one of two) due to harder ore, rescheduling of the mine plan at Quellaveco due to geotechnical issues, additional ramp-up challenges in met coal, persistent infrastructure issues at Kumba, and ore hardness/maintenance for Minas-Rio.

In February, Anglo also took a $1.7 billion hit on its Woodsmith project to produce fertilizer nutrients in the north east of England.

“We think Anglo is now a show-me story without a bottom-up near-term catalyst, but value remains and we continue to expect a better year from its commodity suite in 2024,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Tyler Broda said in a note.

Expert consensus seems to be that Anglo American could be worth up to 50% more than its current market capitalization of £23 billion ($28 billion) in a takeover scenario. 

There are, however, significant barriers to a deal, such as political risks in some of the countries where the miner operates, regulatory hurdles and environmental liabilities. 

The majority of analysts consulted by MINING.COM think the company’s management is likely to resist any hostile approach and will, instead, focus on improving its performance through cost-cutting, asset sales and debt reduction.

According to the company, the decision aims to align output with constrained capacity for transporting minerals via rail to the port.

Transnet, the state-owned freight rail and port operator, faces challenges in transporting minerals and other commodities to export markets due to shortages of locomotives, cable theft, and vandalism of its infrastructure.

By September, stockpiles of iron ore had surged to 9 million tons, a consequence of rail bottlenecks. The company anticipates concluding 2023 with a production range of 35-36 million tons, adjusting from the initial forecast of 35-37 million tons.

Additionally, Kumba has revised its production projections for the following three years to a range of 35-37 million tons annually, down from the earlier targets of 37-39 million tons in 2024 and 39-41 million tons in 2025.

“There is no escaping the fact that ongoing logistics constraints have continued to place significant pressure on our value chain, resulting in stock levels at the mines increasing to unsustainable levels. We have therefore slowed down production,” Kumba CEO Mpumi Zikhalala said.

The persistent logistics problems have resulted in a 15% decrease in iron ore railed to port since 2019.

“As soon as we get the transport capacity, we would be able to ramp the production back up,” Wanblad said.

According to Reuters, the miner is gearing up to freeze spending on growth and expand job cuts in South Africa, including the mothballing of some higher-cost platinum mines.

At Kumba, the restructuring had already resulted in a 30% reduction in head office staff by September.

On Friday, Anglo American announced its intention to reduce capital expenditure by $1.8 billion by 2026, grappling with a decline in demand for most of the metals it mines.

Anglo lowered its 2024 output target for copper to between 730,000 tons and 790,000 tons, from as much as 1 million tons.

The company said its PGM output could fall to as low as 3.3 million ounces next year, from 3.8 million ounces this year.

Overall, Anglo’s production will be about 4% lower next year, before falling another 3% in 2025, it said.

“Whilst it is clearly not positive that Anglo has come to this situation where it needs to shrink its footprint, we think this new streamlined Anglo American should allow it to shed some of the recently more challenging aspects of the business,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Tyler Broda told Bloomberg.

Shares of Anglo American fell 15% by 2:10 p.m. GMT. The company has a market capitalization of £25.4 billion ($31.8 billion).

(With files from Bloomberg and Reuters)